Australia-China Weekly Brief: November 2026 issues

October 29 - November 5 2026

1. US midterm results complicate Trump's China diplomacy

Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in the November 3 US midterm elections, ending Republican control of the legislature and delivering a significant setback to President Donald Trump. The incoming Congress, which takes office in January 2027, will have greater scope to scrutinise the administration's foreign policy and influence defence spending, while the Democratic-controlled Senate will oversee senior appointments.

The result could complicate Trump's approach to Beijing. Reuters reported that the outcome may strengthen the PRC’s bargaining position in trade negotiations, while a Democratic-controlled Congress could constrain US concessions on semiconductor export controls and other sensitive technologies. Trump nevertheless retains considerable executive authority over tariffs and foreign policy.

The takeaway: The election weakens Trump's political position, potentially strengthening Beijing's hand in trade negotiations without necessarily moderating US strategic competition with the PRC. A Democratic Congress may challenge Trump's tariffs while supporting tighter technology restrictions. For Australia, this could create greater scope to contest US trade measures, but little relief from pressure to align with Washington on sensitive technologies and supply chains. Canberra will also need to engage the new Congress to maintain support for AUKUS and critical minerals investments, while preserving its broader economic relationship with the PRC.

2. Australia-China engagement continues amid reports of Albanese visit

The South China Morning Post reported on October 30 that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was expected to visit Beijing following the November 18-19 APEC summit in Shenzhen, citing unnamed sources. The proposed visit has not been officially confirmed.

Meanwhile, Assistant Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Matt Thistlethwaite travelled to the PRC to lead Australia's delegation at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai, involving more than 260 Australian businesses. His itinerary also included Chengdu, with a focus on healthcare, biotechnology and education.

Agriculture Minister Julie Collins separately visited the PRC to advance agricultural cooperation and market access, meeting PRC Agriculture Minister Zhang Zhu on November 3. This followed an October 29 meeting with PRC Ambassador Liu Jinsong.

The takeaway: The continued ministerial engagement, alongside reports of another prime ministerial visit, reflects Canberra's efforts to use stabilised diplomatic relations to advance specific commercial interests. These include expanding opportunities in emerging sectors and resolving outstanding market access issues. Efforts to access unused Uruguayan beef quota

3. Australia and China hold inaugural steel decarbonisation policy dialogue

Australia and the PRC held their first steel decarbonisation policy dialogue on November 2, bringing together senior officials from Australia's Department of Industry, Science and Resources and the PRC's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

The meeting followed a bilateral MoU signed in December 2025, establishing cooperation on emissions reduction across the iron and steel supply chain. Both governments characterised the discussions as constructive and expressed support for continued engagement.

The takeaway: The dialogue is a constructive step towards cooperation on an industrial transition important to both economies. Decarbonisation could reshape demand for Australian iron ore while creating opportunities in higher value green iron production. Chinese capital and technology could accelerate this shift, but Australia's ambitions to expand domestic processing compete with the PRC's interest in retaining its steelmaking dominance. Investment opportunities will depend on reconciling these commercial ambitions with strategic concerns on both sides.

4. Quad foreign ministers signal renewed momentum with focus on economic security

Foreign ministers from Australia, the US, Japan and India met in Atlanta on October 31, expressing concern over economic coercion, arbitrary export restrictions and industrial overcapacity, in an apparent reference to the PRC. They announced initiatives to diversify critical minerals supply chains, including an intention to provide more than US$85 million in technical and financial assistance to support access to trusted advanced AI technologies across the Indo-Pacific. Other announcements included a Quad Business Leaders' Forum and cooperation on port infrastructure in Fiji.

The meeting was the third at foreign minister level this year. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also reiterated plans for a leaders' summit in Manila in November.

The takeaway: The meeting suggests renewed political momentum for the Quad, with a more explicit focus on economic security and reducing dependence on Chinese supply chains. Its initiatives on critical minerals and technology represent a potentially more practical agenda, although the grouping's uneven implementation record warrants caution. The renewed activity also carries diplomatic significance amid uncertainty over US Indo-Pacific priorities.

5.Other developments: University of Tasmania ends China program; AUKUS inquiry calls for reconsideration

University of Tasmania to end China marine science program

The University of Tasmania will not renew its marine and Antarctic science program with the Ocean University of China beyond 2028, citing changes to the teaching model rather than government direction. The decision follows Canberra's termination of two other PRC-linked university arrangements in August, although the circumstances differ.

Independent inquiry calls for reconsideration of AUKUS

An independent, community-funded inquiry called for Australia to abandon the AUKUS submarine acquisition program and reconsider technology sharing arrangements. The government rejected its recommendations. The findings reflect continuing domestic debate over AUKUS' costs, sovereignty implications and strategic consequences.