Midterms no reason to fall back on old alliances

This article appeared in Pearls and Irritations on November 9 2026.

No doubt most of our political and security elites are breathing an enormous sigh of relief. The Democrats’ electoral triumph is not just a domestic repudiation of Trumpian incompetence, but it’s also potentially good news for long-suffering American allies. The great hope in Canberra’s intellectual monoculture is that we can all go back to the way we were, when the alliance seemed to be an asset rather than a liability.

This would be a potentially fatal misreading of the evolving world order, and not just at the level of inter-state politics and grand strategy either. On the contrary, not only do policymakers everywhere have to negotiate another two years of a sulking, self-obsessed and likely vengeful Donald Trump, but it is far from certain that his departure will usher in an era of comparative peace and harmony either.

Even if Trump doesn’t decide to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age as punishment for failing to play their part in his delusional ambitions, the world is never going back to the way it was. Iran has demonstrated just how important geographical ‘chokepoints’ are, especially in an interdependent global economy. Its lopsided conflict with the US is also a reminder of how important nuclear weapons can be in deterring foreign aggression. Just ask Ukraine, who gave theirs away.

In such circumstances, even thoughtful strategic observers think that Australia may need to consider acquiring ‘a minimum nuclear deterrent’. For those of us who favour arms control over arms racing, the transformation of America’s political landscape offers hope, but little else. The reality is that neither of Australia’s major political parties can imagine anything other than continuing deference and fealty to the United States.

Given the determination of America’s leaders to maintain a dominant geopolitical position and fulfil its ‘historical mission’, no matter who was in the White House, we might hope that Australian policymakers might take the opportunity to consider whether outsourcing responsibility for our security is still the best option in a world confronting unprecedented existential threats that don’t issue from the barrel of a gun.

On the contrary, as a species we find ourselves hurtling towards the environmental cliff edge while hotly pursued by an alien intelligence we created ourselves. The speed with which artificial intelligence is developing means that another two years of Trump could prove quite literally fatal, if the fears of those at the AI frontier are realised. But look on the bright side, the AI bubble may pop and plunge us into an economic crisis that will slow ‘progress’ and encourage cooperation between the US and China, the other technological great power.

Given the enthusiasm with which Australia’s political and economic elites are positioning this country as a desirable location for massive data centres, it’s hard to be confident anything will change in the tech domain either. True, the direct influence of the tech titans may be diminished, but AI’s ‘strategic’ importance will no doubt see a continuing flood of money into this environment-destroying, brain-rotting sector.

But different lessons could be learned, and popular policies could be embraced by a more enlightened, less craven Australian government. Young people around the world are demonstrating their entirely understandable unhappiness about their prospects.

If there is one thing the midterm elections results demonstrate, though, it’s that there are votes in progressive policies. Even being a self-declared democratic socialist is not the kiss of political death. True, it’s a bit difficult to imagine the leader of the Australian Labor Party championing the merits of socialism, but if ever there was a moment for a fundamental rethink about what it means to lead in a country as fortunate as Australia, this ought to be it.

Given the criticism the government is currently copping about the cost-of-living crisis, Albanese could announce that under the circumstances the indefensible AUKUS project is going to be abandoned and the money used to rein in public spending, which orthodox economists are queuing up to demand. Given the cost of AUKUS, it ought to be possible to balance the budget and increase spending on public welfare.

It would make many of us safer, too. Those of us living near the naval base south of Perth, which will soon be home to American nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed submarines, have now become a priority target in the event of war breaking out between the US and China. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of a national security policy that is subordinate to the plans of a foreign power and one that is sometimes run by appallingly ill-qualified, corrupt and psychologically damaged individuals like Trump.

Even if we get through the next two years relatively unscathed, it doesn’t mean America can’t suffer an authoritarian relapse or drag us into yet another war that has next to nothing to do with us. And yet, American voters have demonstrated that other futures and outcomes are possible, but it will still take enlightened and imaginative leadership to realise them. If we’re ever going to do it, this is the time.