2025 Doing Business in China Flash Report

The 2025 Doing Business in China Flash Survey, led by the China-Australia Chamber of Commerce (AustCham China) with support from the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS:ACRI) and the Australia China Business Council (ACBC), provides an update on business sentiment since the 2025 Doing Business in China Report. 

Targeting senior executives active in the Australia-China business corridor, it examines shifts in perception following the ongoing April 2025 US trade measures and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's visit to the People's Republic of China (PRC) in July 2025. 

Conducted from September 26 to October 15 2025, the flash survey recorded a total of 730 responses - 360 from Chinese firms (51 percent or more Chinese-owned) and 364 from internationally-owned firms (less than 51 percent Chinese ownership, including Australian entities).

The role of UTS:ACRI was as an independent partner for data analysis and report contribution. UTS:ACRI’s role was limited to post-collection analysis, written by UTS:ACRI Director James Laurenceson, excluding survey design, distribution or data collection, to ensure objectivity.

Download report (PDF, 2.7MB)

Foreword

By James Laurenceson

When AustCham China took the pulse of Australia-China business relations earlier this year, there was a clear optimistic bent. The Doing
Business in China 2025 (DBIC 2025) report, which collected responses between November 2024 and January 2025, showed that while uncertainty around the incoming Trump administration loomed, and there were specific areas of dissatisfaction like Australia’s foreign investment approvals process, businesses were enthused by the improvement in ties between Canberra and Beijing, and the China market remained a strategic priority.

However, in April 2025, the Trump administration temporarily hiked tariffs on Chinese goods to an average rate of 135%. Beijing retaliated. Negotiations saw some unwinding, but the US and China still have average tariffs on each other’s goods of 58% and 33%, respectively. In addition to tariffs, both sides have unveiled a series of other trade controls, such as a requirement for export licenses affecting firms involved in semiconductors, rare earths, and more.

Yet careful analysis finds that to date around 80% of China’s lost sales to the US have found alternative markets, and the latest forecasts for overall Chinese economic growth remain resilient. Following an emphatic federal election win in May this year, and an extended six-day visit to China in July that was squarely focused on trade, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese now also says that bilateral relations are “absolutely” moving beyond “stabilisation”. “New layers” are being added and there is a joint commitment to “grow the bilateral relationship”. Rather than 
“stabilisation”, the watch word in Canberra these days is “constructive engagement”.

This context makes AustCham China’s 2025 Doing Business in China Flash Survey invaluable for getting a read on the present state of the Australia-China business corridor. What stands out most is how modest the impact of US-China trade turbulence in 2025 has been. To be sure, 
respondents weigh the deterioration in US-China economic relations as an overall negative, albeit with some firms benefiting from their American competitors facing disrupted access to the Chinese market. But as the DBIC 2025 report emphasised, the Australia-China business relationship largely runs on its own track. Bilateral business sentiment continues to be characterised by cautious confidence and with key performance metrics like expected profitability and investment intentions showing no significant deterioration.

With Canberra also making clear it has no intention of following if the US embarks on a broad economic decoupling from China, bilateral economic fundamentals are set to continue to drive the outlook, as well as policy decisions made in Canberra and Beijing, not Washington.

Key Findings

The 2025 Doing Business in China Flash Survey highlights growing confidence in the Australia-China business corridor, with most respondents noting increased optimism in trade and investment.
Improved diplomatic relations, driven by Prime Minister Albanese’s July 2025 visit securing trade, green energy, and tourism agreements, fuel this momentum. However, US-China tariffs, intensified in April and September 2025, remain a key concern, though most firms report stable costs and sales, focusing on operational adaptation within China over exiting the market.

Economic concerns, particularly in China’s property and financial sectors, temper short-term optimism, with no respondents strongly confident in the near-term outlook. Regulatory predictability has improved slightly, though concerns linger. Profit expectations for 2025 are cautious compared to 2024’s positive outcomes, but long-term investment plans are stable, with increases outnumbering reductions.

Foreign investment interest in China shows a slight uptick, while Chinese interest in Australia, especially in electric vehicles (EVs) and renewables, is robust. Australian exports to China focus on agribusiness, non-critical minerals, and education, with investments in advanced manufacturing and resource efficiency technology. Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board reforms, including a new online portal released in late February, alongside less hawkish media reporting, fee
refunds for unsuccessful bids, and expedited processing for non-sensitive sectors, have likely driven the improvement in the investment climate since February.

The China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA), nearing its tenth year, is valued by the 10% of respondents addressing it, though its removal is seen as low-impact due to strong economic fundamentals.
Firms advocate for digital trade enhancements, like electronic certificates of origin, and show interest in pilot programs. Overall, diplomatic progress and strategic adaptations drive resilience in the Australia-China corridor, with firms leveraging partnerships to navigate economic challenges.

These findings should be viewed in the context of ongoing geopolitical and economic developments that continue to shape business sentiment and operations across the Australia–China corridor. Notably, since the survey period, several major events have taken place — including the Trump–Xi meeting, the Trump–Albanese meeting, and the release of China’s new Five-Year Plan — all of which are likely to influence trade dynamics, policy settings, and long- term investment confidence. These developments underscore the rapid pace of change in the global and bilateral environment in which Australian and Chinese businesses operate.