Primary Exploration, Mining and Metal Supply Scenario (PEMMSS)

There are persistent concerns that supplying the materials required for energy technologies and sustainable development will lead to expansion of the mining sector and adverse environmental and social burdens in mining regions.

Existing modelling approaches for understanding future mineral supply struggle to evaluate where new mines may develop and the unique burdens they may create. To overcome this, ISF researchers have developed new modelling frameworks for understanding the future of mineral supply. Developed through strategic internal funding and being applied with support of our partners, these new modelling frameworks provide a discrete perspective on where future mineral supply may be located, what factors could shape this and how this may lead to different environmental and sustainable development outcomes. Underpinning this is the Primary Exploration, Mining and Metal Supply Scenario (PEMMSS) model, which models uncertain mineral supply outcomes on a mine-by-mine, deposit-by-deposit basis. The PEMMSS model provides a new way of exploring how deeply uncertain factors such as the future success of exploration across regions or required development periods for new mines may enable or threaten the ability to supply the materials required by the energy transition. The approaches integrated into this new modelling approach enables full regionalisation and uncertainty of mineral supply scenario to be evaluated, all the way down to the individual mineral deposit.

ISF is applying these models to mineral commodities that are essential for the energy transition, such as copper, nickel, lithium and graphite. Results so far indicate that we can meet the material demands of the energy transition, but there are some complex outcomes that must be considered. Will we need more mines to meet the material needs of the energy transition? Will we have to pay more for materials in the future? Will this create new environmental burdens from mining? Reach out to our researchers to find out more.