Skip to main content

Site navigation

  • University of Technology Sydney home
  • Home

    Home
  • For students

  • For industry

  • Research

Explore

  • Courses
  • Events
  • News
  • Stories
  • People

For you

  • Libraryarrow_right_alt
  • Staffarrow_right_alt
  • Alumniarrow_right_alt
  • Current studentsarrow_right_alt
  • Study at UTS

    • arrow_right_alt Find a course
    • arrow_right_alt Course areas
    • arrow_right_alt Undergraduate students
    • arrow_right_alt Postgraduate students
    • arrow_right_alt Research Masters and PhD
    • arrow_right_alt Online study and short courses
  • Student information

    • arrow_right_alt Current students
    • arrow_right_alt New UTS students
    • arrow_right_alt Graduates (Alumni)
    • arrow_right_alt High school students
    • arrow_right_alt Indigenous students
    • arrow_right_alt International students
  • Admissions

    • arrow_right_alt How to apply
    • arrow_right_alt Entry pathways
    • arrow_right_alt Eligibility
arrow_right_altVisit our hub for students

For you

  • Libraryarrow_right_alt
  • Staffarrow_right_alt
  • Alumniarrow_right_alt
  • Current studentsarrow_right_alt

POPULAR LINKS

  • Apply for a coursearrow_right_alt
  • Current studentsarrow_right_alt
  • Scholarshipsarrow_right_alt
  • Featured industries

    • arrow_right_alt Agriculture and food
    • arrow_right_alt Defence and space
    • arrow_right_alt Energy and transport
    • arrow_right_alt Government and policy
    • arrow_right_alt Health and medical
    • arrow_right_alt Corporate training
  • Explore

    • arrow_right_alt Tech Central
    • arrow_right_alt Case studies
    • arrow_right_alt Research
arrow_right_altVisit our hub for industry

For you

  • Libraryarrow_right_alt
  • Staffarrow_right_alt
  • Alumniarrow_right_alt
  • Current studentsarrow_right_alt

POPULAR LINKS

  • Find a UTS expertarrow_right_alt
  • Partner with usarrow_right_alt
  • Explore

    • arrow_right_alt Explore our research
    • arrow_right_alt Research centres and institutes
    • arrow_right_alt Graduate research
    • arrow_right_alt Research partnerships
arrow_right_altVisit our hub for research

For you

  • Libraryarrow_right_alt
  • Staffarrow_right_alt
  • Alumniarrow_right_alt
  • Current studentsarrow_right_alt

POPULAR LINKS

  • Find a UTS expertarrow_right_alt
  • Research centres and institutesarrow_right_alt
  • University of Technology Sydney home
Explore the University of Technology Sydney
Category Filters:
University of Technology Sydney home University of Technology Sydney home
  1. home
  2. arrow_forward_ios ... Newsroom
  3. arrow_forward_ios ... 2014
  4. arrow_forward_ios 11
  5. arrow_forward_ios ANZUS call to arms would fail the pub test

ANZUS call to arms would fail the pub test

4 November 2014

Bob Carr

 

Bob Carr, Director, Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney

Download

This article appeared in the Sydney Morning Herald on November 14 2014.

In the East China Sea, where five islands are disputed between China and Japan, military aircraft could collide in the crowded skies. A ship could be sunk by accident. Roaming fishing fleets and cruise liners complicate the scenarios.

Monday's report by two academics, Nick Bisley and Brendan Taylor, shows how easily conflict could flare. With the US committed to Japan, would the ANZUS Treaty propel Australia into war? It is a war that few Australians would think was in our interests.

Every minister for Foreign Affairs is briefed on what to say if asked "Does ANZUS apply?" The department suggests the Minister should say, first, "That's a hypothetical question." And, second, "The ANZUS Treaty commits us to consult."

In 2004, Alexander Downer tried to cool the idea ANZUS would oblige us to fight in the Taiwan Strait. He faced heavy criticism. On June 12 this year, Defence Minister Johnston was asked about China and Japan. He said he didn't believe ANZUS would apply. There was no criticism.

It was as if Australians regarded his view as common sense. Any alternative would, as they say, fail the pub test.

In fact, suggesting Australia lend a frigate to such a conflict would probably be viewed as being as nutty and far-fetched as the notion that we should have sent the navy to help Britain in the Falklands.

In 1963, Prime Minister Menzies directly asked President Kennedy whether US assistance under ANZUS would be immediate if Australian forces were attacked by Indonesia. Kennedy said that officials would consult. In 1964 the Australian government sent Arthur Tange, Secretary of the Department of External Affairs, to Washington to ask what would happen if there were a conflict between our forces and Indonesia. Would ANZUS be triggered? Tange himself wrote, "The consultations with the Americans brought home to the Australian government that any US support to Australia with combat troops was neither guaranteed in advance nor unconditional".

It was not in the US's interests to antagonise Indonesia. They let Australia know ANZUS would not apply.

In my recently published diaries I record advice from Dennis Richardson, former head of DFAT and currently the head of the Department of Defence. We discussed whether at annual talks with the US in 2012 we should announce a new burst of strategic co-operation with the US – more B-52 flights and ship visits.

This was one year after the headline-grabbing announcement about marines in the Northern Territory. Richardson agreed this was not the time for more such initiatives. "Our interests are different from a great power's," he said. When it comes to the East China Sea it is this notion that should guide us.

The US is a global power with a defence treaty with Japan. We are not a great power but a G20 member of middle power with a strong economic stake in China's peaceful and prosperous rise. We are warm to Japan and its values but have reservations about nationalist currents in its politics. We are not an ally.

With deft diplomacy, Australia should let the US know it is not in our interests to slide into war with our major trading partner if there's a flare-up about uninhabited islands that, in an ideal world, would be part of a maritime national park. Or, as a second-best solution, islands that would slumber under the benign neglect both China and Japan applied until Japan unilaterally changed their status by nationalising them in 2012.

Both our ally the US and our friend Japan should be quietly coached that Australia's interests on this question may be at odds with their own, although they can count on us exerting every bit of influence we have with China to urge caution and restraint. We'll have more influence in Beijing, anyway, if we are respected for a neutrality based on the view ANZUS is not an automatic call to arms but, yes Minister, an invitation to consult.


Author

Professor the Hon. Bob Carr is Director of the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney.

Share
Share this on Facebook Share this on Twitter Share this on LinkedIn
Back to Commentary

Acknowledgement of Country

UTS acknowledges the Gadigal People of the Eora Nation and the Boorooberongal People of the Dharug Nation upon whose ancestral lands our campuses now stand. We would also like to pay respect to the Elders both past and present, acknowledging them as the traditional custodians of knowledge for these lands. 

University of Technology Sydney

City Campus

15 Broadway, Ultimo, NSW 2007

Get in touch with UTS

Follow us

  • Instagram
  • LinkedIn
  • YouTube
  • Facebook

A member of

  • Australian Technology Network
Use arrow keys to navigate within each column of links. Press Tab to move between columns.

Study

  • Find a course
  • Undergraduate
  • Postgraduate
  • How to apply
  • Scholarships and prizes
  • International students
  • Campus maps
  • Accommodation

Engage

  • Find an expert
  • Industry
  • News
  • Events
  • Experience UTS
  • Research
  • Stories
  • Alumni

About

  • Who we are
  • Faculties
  • Learning and teaching
  • Sustainability
  • Initiatives
  • Equity, diversity and inclusion
  • Campus and locations
  • Awards and rankings
  • UTS governance

Staff and students

  • Current students
  • Help and support
  • Library
  • Policies
  • StaffConnect
  • Working at UTS
  • UTS Handbook
  • Contact us
  • Copyright © 2025
  • ABN: 77 257 686 961
  • CRICOS provider number: 00099F
  • TEQSA provider number: PRV12060
  • TEQSA category: Australian University
  • Privacy
  • Copyright
  • Disclaimer
  • Accessibility