Could Australia run out of fuel?

Led by Associate Professor Sanjoy Paul, a supply chain expert and moderated by Associate Professor Gerhard Hambusch, the discussion unpacked how global shocks ripple through to everyday life in Australia. Here are the top three takeaways:

1. Australia is highly dependent on global supply chains 
 
Australia does not produce enough fuel domestically to meet its needs and maintains a low reserve of oil compared to other countries. This means Australia is heavily reliant on imports of both crude and refined oil from international markets. 
 
This means fuel reaches Australia through a complex, multi-step global supply chain involving production, shipping, refining and distribution across multiple countries. Disruptions at any point, particularly in key transit routes like the Strait of Hormuz, can quickly impact supply. 
 
The key insight: Australia’s fuel security is tightly linked to global stability, not just domestic conditions. 
 
2. Disruptions don’t mean “running out” but they do mean price shocks and pressure 
 
While a complete fuel shortage is unlikely in the short term, disruptions can still have significant consequences. 
 
When supply routes are threatened or constrained: 
 
• Prices increase rapidly due to global competition for limited supply 
 
• Delays in shipping and refining create bottlenecks 
 
• Consumer behaviour, including stockpiling, can intensify demand pressure 

This explains why Australians may feel the impact quickly through rising fuel, grocery, and service costs, even if physical supply remains available. 
 
The key insight: the real risk is not empty pumps, but economic and behavioural ripple effects. 
 
3. Australia needs stronger resilience and long-term planning 
 
A central theme of the discussion was the need to strengthen Australia’s fuel security for the future. 
 
Potential areas of focus include: 
 
• Increasing fuel reserves and storage capacity 
 
• Diversifying supply sources and trade routes 
 
• Investing in local cost-efficient refining capability and adopting alternative energies  
 
The event highlighted that fuel security is not just a logistics issue, but a strategic national priority requiring coordinated policy and industry action. 
 
The key insight: future resilience depends on reducing reliance and improving preparedness and supply chain adaptation. 
 
As global uncertainty continues, events like Curiosities Live demonstrate the value of expert insight in helping the community understand complex, fast-moving challenges and what they mean for everyday life.