Who will deliver Victoria's energy transition?

As Victoria accelerates its transition to a low-emissions future, a critical question is emerging: who will do the work?

A study led by the UTS Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF), in collaboration with Climateworks Centre, has developed pioneering workforce indicators going beyond established electricity sector workforce (generation and storage, transmission line construction) to include domestic and industrial electrification and EV charging and hydrogen refuelling infrastructure.

Funded by the RACE for 2030 CRC and the Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action (DEECA), the research aims to support workforce planning for Victoria's energy transition.

The newly released Victorian Energy Workforce Projections to 2040 report provides a clearer picture of the scale of the workforce required to support the state's energy transformation. Importantly, it moves beyond traditional electricity sector workforce forecasting and starts considering the workers needed to decarbonise in homes, communities, transport, and industry.

The research projects sustained growth in energy-related employment through to 2040. Across the sectors modelled, workforce demand is expected to almost double, increasing from around 25,700 workers in 2024 to between 49,200 and 51,700 workers by 2040.

This growth presents significant opportunities for job creation and skills development. However, it also highlights the need for coordinated workforce planning at a time when many energy-related occupations are already facing persistent skills shortages.

While ISF has established reliable workforce projections for energy generation previously, the electrification and energy efficiency workforce remains poorly understood. This study highlights the sheer scale of the workforce needed for us to electrify everything.

“A skilled and available workforce is the lynchpin to being able to achieve our net zero goals, and reacting to labour shortages as they emerge is too late because of the time needed for training," said ISF Research Director Jay Rutovitz.

"There is an urgent need for further work to understand the skills needed to electrify our economy."

The findings have already informed the development of the Victorian Government's recently released Energy Jobs Plan, helping shape evidence-based approaches to workforce development and training policy and planning. 

Early workforce projections can support more proactive planning across government, industry and the training sector. This can help ensure Australia has the skilled workforce needed to deliver its energy ambitions.

“When robust workforce modelling underpins strategic workforce planning and policy, challenges can be identified early on. As this research shows, Victoria’s energy sector workforce will grow significantly to 2040, putting actionable strategies in place like those laid out in the VEJP can support government and industry to tackle challenges head on," said Rutovitz.

As Australia continues its shift towards a cleaner energy future, understanding future workforce needs will be essential. After all, the energy transition is not only about new technologies and infrastructure, it's also about having the people and skills needed to bring that future to life.