Exploring strategic foresight and scenario planning in policy making

Futures Thinking cannot and will not give you a definitive view of the future, nor does it focus on individual ‘things’. Instead, the OECD describes Futures Thinking as “illuminating the ways that policy, strategies and actions can promote desirable futures and help prevent those we consider undesirable” How futures thinking can illuminate policy design, Paul Ashton, 2019.

One of the key perspectives offered by futures thinking is, not that it enables us to predict the future, but rather that it helps us prepare for the future. And critically it helps us to understand that there are many possible futures not a single future. Futures thinking also sharpens our ability to read signals – what’s emerging, what are we not listening to, what’s shifting. This in turn gives us fresh insights into where we should head and how we could shape future strategy.

A key element of futures thinking is the need to embrace uncertainty, and accept that our future is not predetermined and can be altered at any time, by any number of factors.

Taking the long view: futures thinking and why it matters, April 19, 2021 (IDOX)

Understanding strategic foresight and scenario planning

Strategic foresight is a structured approach to exploring, anticipating and influencing possible futures. Unlike traditional planning that often extrapolates from past trends, foresight acknowledges that the future is neither predetermined nor predictable but can be actively shaped. It employs methodologies that help organisations identify emerging issues, challenge assumptions and recognise potential opportunities and threats before they manifest.

Scenario planning, a core foresight methodology, involves developing multiple plausible futures to test policy robustness and identify strategic options. Rather than predicting a single outcome, scenarios create narratives about different possible futures, allowing decision-makers to rehearse responses and develop policies that perform well across various conditions. For public sector managers, these tools offer practical means to address 'wicked problems'—complex challenges like climate adaptation, ageing populations and technological disruption—that defy simple solutions and span organisational boundaries.

The value of these approaches lies in their ability to surface hidden assumptions, foster organisational learning and create space for innovative thinking beyond day-to-day operational pressures. This is empowering for organisations that are stuck in polarising debates of either/or options and shift the culture to making space and time to consider options and creative discussions which uncover solutions before they are fixed in time. These spaces make time for stakeholders to become problem-solvers who can challenge assumptions and consider alternative futures. This participatory dimension is particularly valuable in public policy contexts where stakeholder engagement is essential for implementation success.

In summary, these foresight approaches can help public sector leaders balance immediate demands with longer-term strategic thinking, ultimately leading to more sustainable policy outcomes.

Next Steps

Public sector and not-for-profit managers can begin implementing futures thinking approaches through several practical steps:

1. Start small by incorporating horizon scanning into existing strategic planning processes
2. Convene cross-disciplinary teams to identify emerging issues that could impact your policy area
3. Develop simple scenarios to test the robustness of current strategies and policies
4. Create dedicated time for longer-term thinking within your team or organisation

If you are curious about how futures thinking can unlock potential for you and your team, join like-minded professionals in developing deeper capabilities in these methodologies in the Futures Thinking in Practice Short Course offered by the UTS Institute for Public Policy and Governance. This engaging, hands-on course equips professionals with frameworks and tools to apply strategic foresight to your particular policy challenges.