The Nationals’ turn: PRC policy after Coalition breakdown

In the wake of its second consecutive federal defeat, the Coalition has fractured. On May 20 2025, the National Party formally withdrew [1] from its longstanding partnership with the Liberal Party, citing policy differences and, reportedly [2], frustration over restrictions on shadow cabinet members crossing the floor. The scale of the Liberal Party’s electoral losses left the Nationals with their largest proportional share of Coalition seats since the 1960s and ‘70s.

The split is likely tactical, designed to extract better terms in a future Coalition agreement. Both parties understand they require one another to return to government, and the Nationals have indicated [3] that renewed partnership remains their long-term objective. Still, the rupture has exposed the challenges of coherence across an opposition that is both numerically diminished and ideologically stretched.

Policy on the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is not a core source of division between the Nationals and Liberals. However, the Nationals’ formal independence may give greater visibility to internal differences that may complicate efforts to present a cohesive foreign policy position. Similar tensions are evident within the Liberal Party and within Labor, where debate continues over the appropriate balance between engagement and human rights advocacy. But with the Nationals now outside Coalition discipline, their foreign policy messaging has the potential to be less constrained.

Former Liberal Prime Minister John Howard has warned [4] of the risks of prolonged separation: ‘It is my very strong opinion that policy differences are best resolved within the framework of the Coalition. If the two parties remain separate for too long… the differences on policy will harden and will be more difficult to resolve.’

The Nationals have long contained divergent views on the PRC. Some figures favour [5] dialogue and trade restoration, while others have pushed [6] a more security-driven and sceptical approach. Party leader David Littleproud has attempted to reconcile both these impulses.

Littleproud’s line 

As a cabinet minister in 2022, Littleproud framed Labor as weak on the PRC, helping escalate the PRC relationship as an election flashpoint by stating [7] that then-Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese ‘hasn’t got the ticker to lead this country if he doesn’t have the courage to stand up to China for every ­Australian.’ Since becoming Nationals leader, however, he has welcomed the Albanese government’s trade diplomacy.  After Beijing lifted restrictions on Australian fruit exports, he remarked [8], ‘It’s an incremental improvement with our relationship with China… I congratulate the government on the dialogue they’ve had and I think they’ve kept the line that we started and made sure that our sovereignty was protected.’

Following Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s meeting with her PRC counterpart, Wang Yi, in December 2022, Littleproud called [9] it a ‘good step’, adding, ‘If we can advance that relationship along with dialogue, as long as our principles aren't breached, that's a good thing for our country and region in terms of peace and prosperity.’ He has also supported negotiated settlements to Australia’s World Trade Organization (WTO) disputes with the PRC on barley and wine, calling [10] it ‘sensible policy’ and ‘the right thing’ to do. 

This pragmatism has extended to direct engagement with PRC officials. In November 2023, Littleproud met [11] the head of the International Department of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, Liu Jianchao, during a visit to Australia. He has also participated [12] in a number of discussions with PRC Ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian ¹. Reflecting [13] on their discussions, he said, ‘In our culture, to turn the page you have to do something tactile and the ambassador has worked tirelessly in making sure that happened as he did with barley.’

Littleproud has also positioned himself as aligned with, but not subordinate to, the US. During the Morrison government he pushed back [14] against calls for Australia to automatically follow the US in a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics. He said the government respected the Biden administration’s move, ‘but we will make our own’ decision. 

This position has continued in opposition. After Donald Trump’s 2024 re-election, some Nationals MPs called for Australia to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and abandon its 2050 net-zero target. Littleproud cautioned against emulating Trump’s policies, saying [15], ‘While President Trump’s made some soundings… you have got to understand your place in the world.’ He added, ‘I think we should just take a deep breath on trying to be Trump-esque here in Australia.’ 

While open to engagement, Littleproud has defended the former Coalition government’s approach to the PRC. When PRC Foreign Minister Wang blamed the Morrison government for bilateral tensions, he responded [16] that the Coalition had ‘stood up to a bully’. He said, ‘We’re happy to have dialogue but it's not giving demands, that’s not how you throw your weight around international communities’, adding that the relationship needed to be ‘collaborative’. 

In May 2024, following a PRC military show of force around Taiwan, he criticised Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for what he saw as a muted response. Albanese, he said,  [17] needed to ‘step up’ and publicly call out the PRC’s ‘intimidation tactics’. He also condemned the treatment of Sky News Australia journalist Cheng Lei during a media event with PRC Premier Li Qiang and Prime Minister Albanese – with PRC officials attempting to block [18] her from the view of the  cameras – saying [19] the PRC Premier ‘should come forward and apologise’.  

On defence, Littleproud has been unequivocal in backing the AUKUS security partnership. He dismissed [20] criticism from former Labor Prime Minister Paul Keating of the $368 nuclear-powered submarine program, [21] stating that Keating was ‘living in a 1990s utopia that doesn’t exist anymore.’ He described AUKUS [22] as one of the ‘great legacies’ of the Coalition era. 

On critical infrastructure, he labelled the 99-year lease of the Port of Darwin to PRC-owned company Landbridge by a Country Liberal Party (CLP) government ‘a mistake’ and supported its return to Australian hands, although caveated his criticism of the CLP by noting that ‘the relationship with China at that point in time was a different one to what we experience at the moment’.²

On Taiwan, Littleproud backed peaceful resolution, but with an emphasis on self-determination. Responding to comments [23] from PRC Ambassador Xiao Qian advising Australian journalists to ‘use your imagination’ on what Beijing’s willingness to use ‘all necessary means’ for Taiwan ‘reunification’ [24], he said: 

I’d ask them to use their imagination if they’re genuine about a peaceful resolution with Taiwan – to use their imagination about giving them the opportunity to vote… [and] determine their future.’ 

He continued:

We need to be calm and we need to work collectively with the government in a bipartisan way in making sure Australia stands firm to this. They understand our principles and our values – and we respect theirs – but there are ways in which you can resolve these disputes and it’s not with sending missiles over one another.

In this regard, he has frequently credited [24] the Albanese government’s approach: ‘[T]hey’ve carried on in much of the fashion that we have and I respect them for that. I think that Penny Wong has done an outstanding job in making sure that our values and principles have been adhered to – as we did as a government – and worked with them in opposition to achieve that.’

Internal dissonance 

This approach has at times brought Littleproud into rhetorical tension with others in his party. Senator Matt Canavan, for example, has adopted a more overtly hawkish stance. In response to PRC live fire exercises in the Tasman Sea, Canavan wrote [25], ‘[I]f China acts more aggressively in our region in the future, Australia would remember acts like this and it would colour our response.’ He also criticised [26] the Albanese government for ‘[making or trying to make] a virtue of sidling up with a Chinese government that takes these kinds of threatening actions to us.’ He stated:

The more sensible approach here is that we recognise that the Chinese Communist government is quite threatening to many countries in our region including ourselves.

Canavan – who unsuccessfully challenged for leadership of the Nationals in May 2025 – has also advocated [27] Trump-style tariffs and stated it was ‘not safe’ to do extensive business with the PRC [28]. 

New England MP Barnaby Joyce has taken a similarly hardline view. As Nationals leader in 2021 [29] he described the PRC as ‘the biggest issue confronting us’ because it could ‘take the liberties off your children’ and ‘affect the freedom of your nation’. He characterised the PRC’s live fire exercises as ‘practicing for war’ [30] and said that Australia needed ‘to wake up’, arguing, ‘We have only one job in this nation – become as powerful as possible, as quickly as possible.’ He has also previously suggested [31] that future parliamentary visits to Taiwan should include government officials or ministers. 

While Littleproud has positioned himself as a stabilising figure within the party, he has also adopted elements of the Nationals’ populist tradition. In 2024, he called [32] for a ban on foreign ownership of Australian housing, stating that Australians should be given priority. This stance aligns with earlier Nationals-led efforts to curb foreign investment in farmland and critical infrastructure, particularly by PRC entities. As Barnaby Joyce remarked of his own [33] campaign against the sale of Cubbie Station: ‘At the time, I was called a racist, a bigot, a redneck and a xenophobe… Now I'm just called correct.’

Littleproud has nonetheless pledged not to lurch the Nationals ‘to the left or the right’, undertaking ‘[n]ot to chase extremities, but to use common sense… and to actually be the sensible centre.’

Where to now? 

The Nationals’ formal separation from the Liberal Party has thrown into starker relief some of the divergent instincts within the opposition on PRC policy. While these differences are not new, the Nationals’ independence may amplify them, complicating efforts to present a coherent foreign policy alternative to the government’s approach.

Whether the Nationals emerge as a constructive voice or a destabilising force in Australia's foreign policy debate will depend on their capacity to reconcile these competing impulses while outside the structural discipline of the Coalition. 

Footnotes

1. See also Jamieson Murphy, ‘China lifts another trade ban on Aussie agriculture’, Queensland Country Life, June 14 2023.
2. Fiona Walsh, ‘‘Mistake’ to lease our port’, NT News, March 23 2025, p 4.

Sources

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/20/nationals-leaving-split-coalition-liberal-party-australian-election

[2] https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/20/coalition-split-liberal-national-party-australia-breakup

[3] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-20/nationals-will-not-re-enter-coalition-agreement/105313818

[4] https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/am/john-howard/105317278

[5] https://www.uts.edu.au/globalassets/sites/default/files/2024-05/20240430-uts-acri-event-transcript_in-conversation-with-shadow-trade-minister-kevin-hogan-on-australia-china-trade.pdf

[6] https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/practicing-for-war-barnaby-joyce-issues-chilling-warning-about-china-as-he-says-australia-has-got-to-wake-up/news-story/208c6d3864f276348a485febc3847498

[7] https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/joint-strike-at-anthony-albanese-over-china-policy/news-story/5b832e31b1d5f9a2b5552e6fa438330c

[8] https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/a-welcome-development-littleproud-praises-lifting-of-chinese-trade-barriers-on-australian-fruit/video/aba7357f7e5cc911ab84e8c213d49ea1?nk=81bf3ad8fe5e504530183c0e839c0d1a-1747800790

[9] https://www.sheppnews.com.au/national/china-meeting-signals-steps-to-stability/

[10] https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/nationals-leader-applauds-government-for-taking-the-right-steps-with-china/video/574b4927b7adff1524aa32fc1c2a7a14?nk=81bf3ad8fe5e504530183c0e839c0d1a-1747800841

[11] https://www.idcpc.gov.cn/english2023/bzhd/202312/t20231204_163003.html

[12] https://x.com/D_LittleproudMP/status/1592458521177903104

[13] https://www.sheppnews.com.au/national/tariffs-on-agenda-for-wong-in-chinese-foreign-meeting/

[14] https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/07/australia-may-use-covid-travel-restrictions-to-justify-diplomatic-boycott-of-beijing-winter-olympics

[15] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/11/nationals-liberal-coalition-net-zero-policy-donald-trump-election-win-australia-impact

[16] https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/china/coalition-government-stood-up-to-china-bully/video/3cfb0b7a0573bbcd6723ded3a9b6c60d?nk=81bf3ad8fe5e504530183c0e839c0d1a-1747801046

[17] https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/sharri-markson/anthony-albanese-needs-to-step-up-and-call-out-chinese-intimidation-tactics/video/e2e5dc807a58614db5978983260d649d

[18] https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/17/australia/australia-china-cheng-lei-blocked-intl-hnk

[19] https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/calls-for-the-chinese-premier-to-apologise-over-officials-disgraceful-behaviour-to-cheng-lei/video/dd0d35d31fa850a393a258209f361724

[20] https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/this-outrageously-expensive-subs-deal-simply-caters-to-the-us-again-20230322-p5cu8n

[21] https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8133946/former-pm-keating-issues-fresh-attack-on-aukus-deal/

[22] https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence/aukus-purpose-australias-nuclear-submarines-deal-explained/news-story/1ddde4870f3d9e90e27515035da1aef4

[23] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-10/xiao-qian-china-australia-press-club-taiwan-invasion-/101317920

[24] https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/chris-kenny/important-xiao-qian-understands-symbolic-nature-of-his-statements-littleproud/video/eb5be662d15837361ef9e4331caeec81

[25] https://www.mattcanavan.com.au/cq-today-conflicts-arent-so-simple/

[26] https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/nationals-senator-warns-of-chinas-threatening-actions-and-urges-tougher-stance/video/45ed63bed9ca0c7ad5fd1e349d0289ab

[27] https://www.theaustralian.com.au/breaking-news/senator-matt-canavan-backs-trumpstyle-tariffs-to-boost-aussie-manufacturing/news-story/1fadc7eba9bdbd872ed7e0285d6c168b

[28] https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/china/it-is-not-safe-to-do-extensive-business-with-china/video/e5fc8bd60464120e729f59d1aadd158a

[29] https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/china-our-biggest-threat-says-barnaby-joyce/news-story/03480807660806a4d3079450f6aafc5b

[30] https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/practicing-for-war-barnaby-joyce-issues-chilling-warning-about-china-as-he-says-australia-has-got-to-wake-up/news-story/208c6d3864f276348a485febc3847498

[31] https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/dec/09/barnaby-joyce-says-future-taiwan-visits-should-include-officials-or-even-ministers

[32] https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/coalition-looks-at-banning-foreign-home-ownership/news-story/6c1bd47121b422c6fe580dccedb9abec

[33] https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/who-is-really-running-the-coalition-the-l-or-the-np-20230413-p5d09j.html

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