Skip to main content

Site navigation

  • University of Technology Sydney home
  • Home

    Home
  • For students

  • For industry

  • Research

Explore

  • Courses
  • Events
  • News
  • Stories
  • People

For you

  • Libraryarrow_right_alt
  • Staffarrow_right_alt
  • Alumniarrow_right_alt
  • Current studentsarrow_right_alt
  • Study at UTS

    • arrow_right_alt Find a course
    • arrow_right_alt Course areas
    • arrow_right_alt Undergraduate students
    • arrow_right_alt Postgraduate students
    • arrow_right_alt Research Masters and PhD
    • arrow_right_alt Online study and short courses
  • Student information

    • arrow_right_alt Current students
    • arrow_right_alt New UTS students
    • arrow_right_alt Graduates (Alumni)
    • arrow_right_alt High school students
    • arrow_right_alt Indigenous students
    • arrow_right_alt International students
  • Admissions

    • arrow_right_alt How to apply
    • arrow_right_alt Entry pathways
    • arrow_right_alt Eligibility
arrow_right_altVisit our hub for students

For you

  • Libraryarrow_right_alt
  • Staffarrow_right_alt
  • Alumniarrow_right_alt
  • Current studentsarrow_right_alt

POPULAR LINKS

  • Apply for a coursearrow_right_alt
  • Current studentsarrow_right_alt
  • Scholarshipsarrow_right_alt
  • Featured industries

    • arrow_right_alt Agriculture and food
    • arrow_right_alt Defence and space
    • arrow_right_alt Energy and transport
    • arrow_right_alt Government and policy
    • arrow_right_alt Health and medical
    • arrow_right_alt Corporate training
  • Explore

    • arrow_right_alt Tech Central
    • arrow_right_alt Case studies
    • arrow_right_alt Research
arrow_right_altVisit our hub for industry

For you

  • Libraryarrow_right_alt
  • Staffarrow_right_alt
  • Alumniarrow_right_alt
  • Current studentsarrow_right_alt

POPULAR LINKS

  • Find a UTS expertarrow_right_alt
  • Partner with usarrow_right_alt
  • Explore

    • arrow_right_alt Explore our research
    • arrow_right_alt Research centres and institutes
    • arrow_right_alt Graduate research
    • arrow_right_alt Research partnerships
arrow_right_altVisit our hub for research

For you

  • Libraryarrow_right_alt
  • Staffarrow_right_alt
  • Alumniarrow_right_alt
  • Current studentsarrow_right_alt

POPULAR LINKS

  • Find a UTS expertarrow_right_alt
  • Research centres and institutesarrow_right_alt
  • University of Technology Sydney home
Explore the University of Technology Sydney
Category Filters:
University of Technology Sydney home University of Technology Sydney home
  1. home
  2. arrow_forward_ios ... Newsroom
  3. arrow_forward_ios ... 2015
  4. arrow_forward_ios 05
  5. arrow_forward_ios How good is the TPP? Look to China for an answer

How good is the TPP? Look to China for an answer

22 May 2015

James Laurenceson

 

James Laurenceson, Deputy Director, Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney

Download

This article appeared in ABC's The Drum on May 22 2015.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is nearly drafted. Australia is negotiating with 11 other countries, which has led to Trade Minister Andrew Robb recently describing it as a “free trade agreement times 12” and one that carries “transformational promise”.   

But to see how it stacks up, try putting it next to that other big deal Robb successfully struck and which is expected to be signed later this year, the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA).  

First there’s the matter of exposure.  

In 2013-14, TPP countries bought $105 billion worth of Australia’s exports. China bought $108 billion.  

Over the past five years, the average annual growth rate of exports to the TPP block has been a nice round number: precisely zero. To China it’s been nearly 20 percent.   

OECD forecasts leave the TPP looking like an agreement between a group of countries whose global economic influence is in long term decline. By 2030, the five largest TPP countries – the US, Japan, Mexico, Canada and Australia – will have a 30 percent share of world GDP, down from 36 percent now. The share of China and India will grow from 25 percent to 34 percent.  

Next compare the concessions on offer.  

Australia already has FTAs with eight of the 11 TPP members. The three countries we don’t have deals with – Canada, Mexico and Peru – account for less than 3 percent of our exports to the TPP block. In other words, if the TPP is going to deliver fresh benefits to Australia, it will need to come in the form of hefty concessions from the likes of the US and Japan.  

The US insisted on leaving sugar out of the bilateral deal back in 2004. Is it now on the table? What about rice, wheat, beef and dairy in Japan? The fact that TPP negotiations have continued for more than five years and 20 rounds strongly hints that it won’t be an “all in” affair. 

Now take a look at what the FTA with China delivers. The World Trade Organization says that of China’s 8198 tariff lines, only 8.4 percent are duty free. But upon signing, the share of Australia’s exports entering China duty free will jump to 85 percent. That rises to 95 percent on full implementation. Tariffs as high as 30 percent on beef, dairy, seafood and horticulture will be eliminated.   

Economic modelling published last year by the East-West Center said that in 2025 Australia’s GDP would be 0.5 percent higher with a TPP. That compares with the 0.7 percent boost that ChAFTA will provide, according to the Centre for International Economics.  

Finally, think about what Australia gives up.      

The FTA with China raises the screening threshold for private investors from $248 million to $1.08 billion. It also gets rid of tariffs on imports of textiles, clothing, footwear and cars. There’s nothing in that list that goes beyond what we already offer the US, Japan and New Zealand.          

No ground was given on investment by Chinese state-owned companies: all must still go to the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB).  

No deal was made on purchases of rural land or agribusinesses. In fact, Australia’s FTA with the US means that American buyers can now purchase rural land with a value more than 70 times higher than those from China without needing FIRB approval.         

The TPP on the other hand is set to introduce tougher rules on intellectual property (IP) and in other areas not usually covered in trade agreements. We already forfeited an additional 20 years of copyright protection to get the FTA with the US done a decade ago. As the Productivity Commission has repeatedly warned, that’s a problem because Australia is a net importer of IP. No such worries in the deal with China. 


Author

Professor James Laurenceson is Deputy Director of the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney. 

Share
Share this on Facebook Share this on Twitter Share this on LinkedIn
Back to Commentary

Acknowledgement of Country

UTS acknowledges the Gadigal People of the Eora Nation and the Boorooberongal People of the Dharug Nation upon whose ancestral lands our campuses now stand. We would also like to pay respect to the Elders both past and present, acknowledging them as the traditional custodians of knowledge for these lands. 

University of Technology Sydney

City Campus

15 Broadway, Ultimo, NSW 2007

Get in touch with UTS

Follow us

  • Instagram
  • LinkedIn
  • YouTube
  • Facebook

A member of

  • Australian Technology Network
Use arrow keys to navigate within each column of links. Press Tab to move between columns.

Study

  • Find a course
  • Undergraduate
  • Postgraduate
  • How to apply
  • Scholarships and prizes
  • International students
  • Campus maps
  • Accommodation

Engage

  • Find an expert
  • Industry
  • News
  • Events
  • Experience UTS
  • Research
  • Stories
  • Alumni

About

  • Who we are
  • Faculties
  • Learning and teaching
  • Sustainability
  • Initiatives
  • Equity, diversity and inclusion
  • Campus and locations
  • Awards and rankings
  • UTS governance

Staff and students

  • Current students
  • Help and support
  • Library
  • Policies
  • StaffConnect
  • Working at UTS
  • UTS Handbook
  • Contact us
  • Copyright © 2025
  • ABN: 77 257 686 961
  • CRICOS provider number: 00099F
  • TEQSA provider number: PRV12060
  • TEQSA category: Australian University
  • Privacy
  • Copyright
  • Disclaimer
  • Accessibility