Senegal

The energy report ‘Senegal: Energy Development Plan to Decarbonise the Economy’ is the result of joint research by Power Shift Africa (PSA) and the University of Technology Sydney – Institute for Sustainable Futures (UTS-ISF) conducted between January 2023 and April 2024. The reports also form part of a contribution by PSA to a broader partnership with the Least Developed Countries Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Initiative for Sustainable Development (LDC REEEI) in an effort to kick-start African leadership on renewable energy progress and ambitions.

The task was to develop comprehensive energy scenarios for Senegal which challenge outdated assumptions about renewable energy and ‘business as usual’ approaches to energy systems and development by providing new scientific input for future policies. A focus of this work lies on the development of a 100% Renewable Energy Pathway to provide data for future National Determined Contribution (NDC) reports for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 

Senegal has significant solar power resources – detailed solar and wind potential assessment conducted by ISF. The solar and wind analysis maps are accessible here: Solar Potential Map, Onshore Wind Potential Map, Offshore Wind Potential Map

The 100% Renewable Energy pathways are developed as robust, reliable, and cost-effective energy plans and based on GIS-based renewable energy potential analysis for solar and wind energy, hourly simulation to determine a high-level analysis of the required storage and grid expansion requirements.

The energy pathways aim to phase-out energy-related CO2 emissions as fast as possible while implementing fast and ambitious energy access programs. 

The energy demand analysis is based on the following assumptions:

• economic growth high enough to develop toward middle-income country levels
• increased energy demand for services and industries 
• growth and decarbonisation in the transport sector 
• access to reliable and affordable energy services for all households to achieve OECD household standards by 2050.

A comprehensive energy plan for Senegal

Senegal submitted its first National Determined Contribution (NDC) at the end of 2020 and the country is currently advancing its climate policy to reduce CO2,eq emissions by 29% by 2030 (conditional upon external support) and to achieve a cumulative installed capacity of 235 MW for solar and 150 MW for wind energy by 2030. However, the former President of Senegal, Macky Sall, has spoken out against developments that would reduce financing for fossil fuel projects.

The political agenda of the current president, Bassirou Diomaye Diakhar Faye, includes a simultaneous focus on fossil fuels, with the renegotiation of oil contracts with major energy companies, and an increase in Senegalese renewable energy development. The movement towards renewables is illustrated by Senegal’s policies. In one of those policies, the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), Senegal will receive €2.5 billion over a 3–5-year period to support its energy transition. Within this framework, Senegal has pledged to achieve 40% renewable energy generation by 2030.

The One Earth Climate Model for Senegal consists of two scenarios: The 1.5˚C Paris aligned pathway that was developed to provide input for Senegal’s future National Determined Contribution (NDC) submission. A reference case shows the impact of a 15-year delay of the 1.5˚C scenario.

Senegal: Cost analysis 

Finally, the fuel costs for the power, heating and transport sectors are presented. All three sectors will reduce fuel cost over time because electricity generation is based renewables – with significant shares of solar and wind power. However, increased electrification will lead to higher investment costs in power generation and higher overall electricity supply costs for Senegal. 

The S-1.5ºC scenario requires an investment of 15.5 trillion CFA (US$26.4 billion) in power generation and 9.6 trillion CFA (US$16.3 billion) in heat generation. Therefore, the total investment in power and heat generation capacities will add up to 25 trillion CFA (US$43 billion).

Across the entire scenario period, fuel cost savings under the S-1.5ºC scenario relative to the REFERENCE scenario will be 19.2 trillion CFA (US$32.6 billion) – and will cover the entire investment in new power generation capacities until 2050 – about 16 times the additional investment in comparison of the S-1.5˚C pathway

Energy System analysis for Senegal

Senegal’s energy plan not only provides a comprehensive renewable energy assessment and a detailed energy demand projection for residential buildings, the service sector, industry and mining and transport, but also includes a detailed electricity system analysis.

In the analysis, the yearly electricity demand is broken down into hourly load curves projected for 2030 and 2050. The entire power sector of the country is simulated with the generation structure and historical solar and wind data. The simulation verifies the possibility of achieving a high security of supply with 100% renewable energy generation. The consequent increased demand on the power grid transmission capacities, possible new inter-provincial connections, and/or the required expansion of energy storage facilities are all calculated.

The electricity demand projections and resulting load curves are calculated as important factors, especially for power supply concepts with high shares of variable renewable power generation. Furthermore, the calculation of the required dispatch and storage capacities is vital to the development of energy electricity supply concepts that lead to high security of supply. A detailed bottom-up projection of the future power demand, based on the applications used, demand patterns, and household types, allowed a detailed forecast of the demand. The energy sector analysis was conducted for Senegal’s projected electricity demand and supply for 2030 and 2050 under the S-1.5ºC pathway

The report finds that 100% renewable energy is not only achievable with existing technology, but cost saving and climate friendly too. 

Colin Besaans, Programme Manager for African Energy Transition at Power Shift Africa says:

“Africa sits at a crossroads where many of our countries are making pivotal decisions about the future of their energy systems and development trajectories. For too long, outdated assumptions about renewable energy have been used to justify continued investments in the fossil fuel technologies that are locking us into the systems of the past. We are incredibly excited to be launching this research which makes clear that it is already possible to achieve 100% renewable energy systems that are secure, stable, cost saving, and great for the climate. We hope this can contribute to necessary conversations about how to raise African ambitions on renewable energy and avoid the maldevelopment of further fossil fuel lock-in.”

Prof Dr Sven Teske, Scientific leader of the research says:

“Detailed energy and climate mitigation pathways are key to establish and implement both energy access targets for all residential households as well as reliable roadmaps for the energy supply for the service and manufacturing industry for economic growth.

Reliable and affordable energy supply and decarbonisation of the economy is not a contradiction but goes hand in hand.

Our ‘One Earth Climate Model’ research team provides the technical and economic basis for policymakers with a focus on least developed countries.”