The purpose of forecasting is to broaden our understanding of an uncertain future by revealing the possibilities and assumptions that influence the likelihood of potential outcomes. It is most effectively used to examine the future rather than to predict it. CiRi has particular expertise in time series modelling and the management of uncertainty and risk in construction cost forecasting. When there is little or no historical data, we base our forecast on expert opinion or other qualitative resources. Where quantitative data is available over time, we can analyse the data statistically to expose patterns of change and trends which can be projected into the future. Where a causal model is available, stochastic optimisation can be used to compare competing future scenarios under different assumptions and conditions.
CiRi is a strong proponent and experienced practitioner of action research. Action research is a pragmatic form of scholarly inquiry, specifically designed to examine the impact of change from a practice perspective. It demands rigorous research expertise coupled with current domain experience, making it both a study of change potential and a change agent in and of itself. Addressing any grand challenge requires bold new partnerships. CiRi understands the disciplinary and practice dynamics and has the collaboration networks required to form relevant and effective research coalitions.
CiRi has an established track record in the assurance of BIM data quality. Data quality is especially significant when data sources are being combined, transformed, or used to automate decisions and processes – which in today’s setting is almost always. CiRi offers a broad range of the very latest data analysis techniques from advanced statistics to comprehensive machine learning algorithms. Our built environment domain experts understand the key considerations, work practices, decision-making processes, and techniques that inform effective data standards and protocols.
Computer simulation provides a robust method of analysis for complex problems which is verifiable, transparent, and readily understood. It is most often used when conducting experiments on the real system is impractical because of cost, time or safety constraints. CiRi has applied action-based, discrete event, virtual reality, and various hybrid combinations of these methods to study system dynamics, for operational planning, training, and life cycle management. We have particular expertise in AnyLogic, R, Stata and SPSS packages and specialise in data visualisation used as an analytical tool to improve understanding and communication.