The OECM is an integrated energy assessment model to be used for developing science-based net-zero targets for all major industries in a granularity and with the KPIs needed to make short-, mid-, and long-term investment decisions.
The 1.5 °C emission pathways developed by UTS-ISF are no- or low-overshoot scenarios (SSP 1), as defined by the IPCC. This means that a carbon budget overshoot is avoided and that the CO2 already released is not assumed to be ‘removed’ by unproven technologies still under development, such as carbon capture and storage. The OECM does take ‘technical’ negative emissions into account, but only natural carbon sinks, such as forests, mangroves and seaweed, which will compensate for the process emissions that are currently unavoidable, such as those from cement production.
Role of the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) in achieving net-zero targets
Investment decisions, such as the decarbonisation target of the Net-Zero Asset Owner Alliance, are highly complex processes. In November 2020, the European Central Bank published a Guide on climate-related and environmental risks, which maps out a detailed process for undertaking “climate stress tests” for investment portfolios. To achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goals in the global finance industry, decarbonisation targets and benchmarks for industry sectors are required. This opens up a whole new research area for energy modelling because, although decarbonisation pathways have been developed for countries, regions and communities, few have been developed for industry sectors. The OneEarth Climate Model (OECM) is an integrated assessment model for climate and energy pathways that focuses on 1.5°C scenarios, and has been further improved to meet this need. To develop energy scenarios for industry sectors classified under the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS), the technological resolution of the OECM required significant improvement. Furthermore, all demand and supply calculations had to be broken down into industry sectors before the individual pathways could be developed.
Carbon Budgets and 1.5C pathways for industry sectors
Specific carbon budgets for industry sectors and countries are required to set future decarbonisation targets. This page shows the remaining carbon emission budget - cumulative between 2020 and 2050 - for the main industry and service sectors.
One Earth Climate Model
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MethodologyRead about the different methodologies used to determine energy demand, supply, how to define Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions and renewable energy potential assessments.
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DashboardSee the OECM 1.5°C pathways for G20 members and their industry sectors. Explore energy demand and supply developments until full decarbonisation in 2050.
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Energy pathwaysThe OECM on the development of 1.5°C net-zero pathways for industry sectors classified under the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS).
