1. The latest forecasts from the IMF say that China’s economy will be 44 percent bigger in 2020.[1] This compares with –
- 16 percent for the U.S[2]
- 5 percent for Japan[3]
- 45 percent for India[4]
2. The IMF expects that China will account for 33.6 percent of world economic growth in 2015.[5] This compares with –
- 12.2 percent for the U.S
- 1.1 percent for Japan
- 15.5 percent for India
3. China has added more than the equivalent of Australia’s economy over the past two years.[6]
4. China is moving to a growth model driven by domestic consumption. In the first half of 2015 consumption accounted for 60 percent of China’s growth.[7] This compares with –
- 54.4 percent in the first half of 2014
- 45.2 percent in the first half of 2013
5. In the first half of 2015 Chinese household disposable income and consumption expenditure grew by more than 9 percent.[8]
6. In the June quarter of 2015 the wages of migrant workers in China – a key indicator of slack in the domestic labour market – grew by 9.8 percent.[9]
7. The leading independent forward indicator of Chinese consumer sentiment has increased for three straight months and is now higher than one year ago.[10]
8. The largest part of China’s economy is also its fastest growing. In 2014, the services sector accounted for 48.2 percent of GDP. This was 6 percentage points more than industry and construction combined. In the first half of 2015 the services sector expanded by 8.4 percent.[11]
9. The leading independent forward indicator of activity in China’s services sector has been in expansion territory throughout 2015.[12]
10. The official interest rate in China is 4.6 percent.[13] This compares with 0 percent in the U.S, Japan and the EU.
Endnotes
[5] http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/pdf/statapp.pdf; http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/update/02/
[7] CEIC database
[8] CEIC database
[9] CEIC database
[11] CEIC database