Dr Thomas Longden is a Senior Research Fellow at CHERE. Before joining CHERE in 2016, Dr Longden was based at Macquarie University, the University of Sydney, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and the Social Policy Research Centre (SPRC).
Thomas holds a PhD from the University of New South Wales (UNSW) and his main areas of research interest are applied econometrics, health economics, environmental economics and energy economics. His current research focuses on multimorbidity, the persistence of high cost healthcare and the impact of extreme heat on mortality and emergency dept. attendances.
His work on climate policy modelling, applied econometrics and technological change has been published in leading international journals (including Climatic Change, Health Economics, Energy, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Energy Policy, Social Science and Medicine, the Journal of Environmental Management, and the Journal of Transport Economics and Policy). He has also acted as a reviewer for a range of leading international journals (including Nature Climate Change, Economic Record, Health Policy, Climatic Change, The Energy Journal and Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment).
Thomas has lectured on environmental economics and microeconomics at UNSW and was a Contributing Author on the latest AR5 WGIII Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report titled Mitigation of Climate Change. In 2017 and 2018, he is an Expert Reviewer for the IPCC Special Report on 1.5oC Global Warming (SR15).
Can supervise: YES
applied econometrics, health economics, environmental economics and energy economics
Van Der Linden, N, Longden, T, Richards, JR, Khursheed, M, Goddijn, H, van Veelen, M, Khan, UR & van der Linden, MC 2019, 'The use of an 'acclimatisation' heatwave measure to compare temperature-related demand for emergency services in Australia, Botswana, Netherlands, Pakistan, and USA', PLoS ONE.
Keighley, T, Longden, T, Mathew, S & Trück, S 2018, 'Quantifying catastrophic and climate impacted hazards based on local expert opinions', Journal of Environmental Management, vol. 205, pp. 262-273.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Keighley, T, Longden, T, Mathew, S & Trück, S 2018, 'Quantifying catastrophic and climate impacted hazards based on local expert opinions', Journal of Environmental Management, vol. 205, pp. 262-273.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Longden, T, Hall, J & Van Gool, K 2018, 'Supplier-induced demand for urgent after-hours primary care services', Health Economics, vol. 27, no. 10, pp. 1594-1608.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Longden, T, Wong, C, Haywood, P, Hall, J & Van Gool, K 2018, 'The prevalence of persistence and related health status: An analysis of persistently high healthcare costs in the short term and medium term', Social Science and Medicine, vol. 211, pp. 147-156.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Carrara, S & Longden, T 2017, 'Freight futures: The potential impact of road freight on climate policy', Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, vol. 55, pp. 359-372.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
This paper describes changes to the modelling of the transport sector in the WITCH (World Induced Technical Change Hybrid) model to incorporate road freight and account for the intensity of freight with respect to GDP. Modelling freight demand based on the intensity of freight with respect to GDP allows for a focus on the importance of road freight with respect to the cost-effective achievement of climate policy targets. These climate policy targets are explored using different GDP pathways between 2005 and 2100, which are sourced from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) database. Our modelling shows that the decarbonisation of the freight sector tends to occur in the second part of the century and that the sector decarbonises by a lower extent than the rest of the economy. Decarbonising road freight on a global scale remains a challenge even when notable progress in biofuels and electric vehicles has been accounted for.
Kriegler, E, Riahi, K, Bauer, N, Schwanitz, VJ, Petermann, N, Bosetti, V, Marcucci, A, Otto, S, Paroussos, L, Rao-Skirbekk, S, Curras, TA, Ashina, S, Bollen, J, Eom, J, Hamdi-Cherif, M, Longden, T, Kitous, A, Mejean, A, Sano, F, Schaeffer, M, Wada, K, Capros, P, van Vuuren, DP, Edenhofer, O, Bertram, C, Bibas, R, Edmonds, J, Johnson, N, Krey, V, Luderer, G, McCollum, D & Jiang, K 2015, 'A short note on integrated assessment modeling approaches: Rejoinder to the review of "Making or breaking climate targets - The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy"', TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, vol. 99, pp. 273-276.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Eom, J, Edmonds, J, Krey, V, Johnson, N, Longden, T, Luderer, G, Riahi, K & Van Vuuren, DP 2015, 'The impact of near-term climate policy choices on technology and emission transition pathways', TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, vol. 90, pp. 73-88.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Riahi, K, Kriegler, E, Johnson, N, Bertram, C, den Elzen, M, Eom, J, Schaeffer, M, Edmonds, J, Isaac, M, Krey, V, Longden, T, Luderer, G, Mejean, A, McCollum, DL, Mima, S, Turton, H, van Vuuren, DP, Wada, K, Bosetti, V, Capros, P, Criqui, P, Hamdi-Cherif, M, Kainuma, M & Edenhofer, O 2015, 'Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals', TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, vol. 90, pp. 8-23.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Schwanitz, VJ, Longden, T, Knopf, B & Capros, P 2015, 'The implications of initiating immediate climate change mitigation - A potential for co-benefits?', TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, vol. 90, pp. 166-177.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Kriegler, E, Riahi, K, Bauer, N, Schwanitz, VJ, Petermann, N, Bosetti, V, Marcucci, A, Otto, S, Paroussos, L, Rao, S, Curras, TA, Ashina, S, Bollen, J, Eom, J, Hamdi-Cherif, M, Longden, T, Kitous, A, Mejean, A, Sano, F, Schaeffer, M, Wada, K, Capros, P, van Vuuren, DP & Edenhofer, O 2015, 'Making or breaking climate targets: The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy', TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, vol. 90, pp. 24-44.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Moutou, C, Longden, T, Stopher, P & Liu, W 2015, 'The Challenges and Opportunities of In-depth Analysis of Multi-day and Multi-year Data', Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, vol. 49, no. 4, pp. 579-602.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
This paper uses a unique multi-day multi-wave panel data set of households, and their travel to analyse the influence of life events and travel behaviour. We focus on the travel time stability of individuals participating in five or more waves of data collection. This reflects the broader use of GPS devices. The popularity of mobile devices offers greater low-cost opportunities for collecting detailed travel data records, and may lead to opportunities to analyse how life events impact upon travel behaviour. This paper also focuses on a range of issues that we expect will be important for research that uses longitudinal data sets.
Longden, T 2014, 'Travel intensity and climate policy: The influence of different mobility futures on the diffusion of battery integrated vehicles', ENERGY POLICY, vol. 72, pp. 219-234.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Pietzcker, RC, Longden, T, Chen, W, Fu, S, Kriegler, E, Kyle, P & Luderer, G 2014, 'Long-term transport energy demand and climate policy: Alternative visions on transport decarbonization in energy-economy models', Energy, vol. 64, pp. 95-108.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Decarbonizing transport will be necessary to limit global warming below 2 °C. Due to persistent reliance on fossil fuels, it is posited that transport is more difficult to decarbonize than other sectors. To test this hypothesis, we compare long-term transport energy demand and emission projections for China, USA and the world from five large-scale energy-economy models. We diagnose the model's characteristics by subjecting them to three climate policies. We systematically analyze mitigation levers along the chain of causality from mobility to emissions, finding that some models lack relevant mitigation options. We partially confirm that transport is less reactive to a given carbon tax than the non-transport sectors: in the first half of the century, transport mitigation is delayed by 10–30 years compared to non-transport mitigation. At high carbon prices towards the end of the century, however, the three global models achieve deep transport emission reductions by >90% through the use of advanced vehicle technologies and low-carbon primary energy; especially biomass with CCS (carbon capture and sequestration) plays a crucial role. The extent to which earlier mitigation is possible strongly depends on implemented technologies and model structure. Compared to the global models, the two partial-equilibrium models are less flexible in their reaction to climate policies.
Carraro, C, Tavoni, M, Longden, T & Marangoni, G 2017, 'The Potential Role of Gas in Decarbonizing Europe: A Quantitative Assessment' in Hafner, M & Tagliapietra, S (eds), The European Gas Markets: Challenges and Opportunities, Springer International Publishing, Cham, pp. 25-48.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
This chapter analyses a set of new scenarios for energy markets in Europe to evaluate the role of natural gasGas across a range of assumptions on climate policy (including the post-Copenhagen Pledges and the EU RoadmapRoadmap ). The goal is to identify whether current trend and policies are leading to an economically efficient and, at the same time, climate-friendly energy mix in Europe. Economic costs and environmental objectives are balanced to identify the welfare-maximizing development path, the related investment strategies in the energy sector and the resulting optimal energy mix. Our results show that a suitable and sustained carbon price is necessary to move energy markets in Europe closer to the optimal energy mix. An appropriate carbon pricingPricing is also sufficient to achieve both the emission target and the renewable target. Policy costs are limited if climate policy is not too ambitious and/or it is internationally coordinated. Finally, our results show that natural gasGas is the key transitional fuel within the cost-effective achievement of a range of climate policy targets.
Longden, T & Sferra, F 2014, 'A Focus on the Latest Developments in the Modelling of Mitigation Options' in Bosetti, V, Carraro, C, Massetti, E & Tavoni, M (eds), Climate Change Mitigation, Technological Innovation and Adaptation A New Perspective on Climate Policy, Edward Elgar Publishing, pp. 164-184.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
This book presents provides a rigorous yet accessible treatment of the main topics in climate change policy using a large body of research generated using WITCH (World Induced Technical Change Hybrid), an innovative and path-breaking ...
Longden, T 2017, 'Quelling the impact of hot weather on hospital demand: an analysis of the role of GPs [Conference presentation]', 10th Health Services and Policy Research Conference, Surfers Paradise.
Wong, C, Longden, T, van Gool, K & Hall, J 2016, 'Morbidity interactions and the cost of healthcare: an analysis of a largesample administrative dataset of primary care, hospital pharmaceutical and total healthcare costs', Australian Health Economics Society Conference, Perth.
Longden, T, Wong, CY, Haywood, P, Hall, J & van Gool, K 2016, 'A question of persistence and related health states: an analysis of persistently high healthcare costs in the short term and long term', Australian Health Economics Society Conference, Fremantle, Australia.
Longden, T 2015, 'CO2 Intensity and the importance of country level differences: An analysis of the relationship between per capita emissions and population density', 2015 ATRF Papers, Australasian Transport Research Forum, Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development, Sydney, Australia.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Bosetti, V & Longden, T 2012, 'Technical change, advanced biofuels and electric drive vehicles: A model of light duty vehicle transportation and global climate policy', European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (EAERE) Annual Conference, Prague, Czech Republic.
Longden, T 2012, 'Constant travel budgets and kilometres: The impact of deviations on energy use and climate policy', International Energy Workshop, Cape Town, South Africa.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Regular travel patterns across countries, cities and cultures have been
attributed to stable travel time budgets and travel money budgets. With such
consistency in travel patterns, these characteristics can be modelled and
results or assumptions are transferable across cases. Preliminary reviews of
the United Kingdom National Travel Survey reveals that at an aggregate
level, average travel trends do not oscillate widely. Initial results using the
WITCH model show that changes in the kilometres driven per year using
light duty vehicles can have a notable effect on the optimal vehicle fleet
composition due to underlying fuel use dynamics and/or carbon costs.
Bosetti, V & Longden, T 2011, 'Light duty vehicle transportation and global climate policy: The importance of electric drive vehicles', European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (EAERE) Annual Conference, Rome, Italy.
Longden, T 2009, 'Going forward by looking backwards on the Environmental Kuznets Curve: The case of CFCs and the Montreal Protocol in contrast to the case of CO2 and the Kyoto Protocol', European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (EAERE) Annual Conference, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
IPCC Cambridge University Press 2014, Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Longden, T, Wong, C, Haywood, P, Hall, J & Van Gool, K 2018, 'The importance of comorbidity and multimorbidity in determining health care costs: An analysis of the cost amplifications associated with morbidity interaction variables. CHERE Working Paper 2018/01'.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Longden, T 2016, 'The regularity and irregularity of travel: an analysis of the consistency of travel times associated with subsistence, maintenance and discretionary activities'.
Regular and irregular travel patterns coincide with different underlying purposes of travel and days of the week. Within this paper, it is shown that the balance between subsistence (i.e. work) and discretionary (i.e. leisure) activities is related to differences in travel patterns and explains consistency across years. Using eight years of time use diary entries this paper finds that travel time related to subsistence activities tends to be regular and stable. In contrast, travel time associated with discretionary activities tends to be more unpredictable and varies greatly between discretionary and non-discretionary days. These findings have consequences for the travel time budget literature as consistency of average travel time is found to be driven by work days, which are frequent and have stable travel times. This is offset by discretionary days as they tend to have longer travel times with greater variability but are fewer in number
Ge, G, Kalotay, E, Longden, T, Loudon, G & Trück, S 2016, 'Real Estate Cycles and Bank Systemic Risks'.
Longden, T 2015, 'CO2 Intensity and the Importance of Country Level Differences: An Analysis of the Relationship between per Capita Emissions and Population Density'.
Longden, T 2015, 'CO2 Intensity and the Importance of Country Level Differences: An Analysis of the Relationship Between per Capita Emissions and Population Density'.
Throsby, D, Zwar, J & Longden, T 2015, 'Book Authors and their Changing Circumstances: Survey Method and Results', Macquarie Economics Research Papers.
Longden, T & Kannard, G 2014, 'Rugby League in Australia between 2001 and 2012: an analysis of home advantage and salary cap violations'.
Longden, T 2014, 'Going Forward by Looking Backwards on the Environmental Kuznets Curve: An Analysis of CFCs, CO2 and the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols'.
Carraro, C, Tavoni, M, Longden, T & Marangoni, G 2013, 'The Optimal Energy Mix in Power Generation and the Contribution from Natural Gas in Reducing Carbon Emissions to 2030 and Beyond'.
Carraro, C, Longden, T, Marangoni, G & Tavoni, M 2013, 'Aligning energy markets and climate-policy objectives in the EU', VoxEU.
Longden, T 2012, 'Deviations in Kilometres Travelled: The Impact of Different Mobility Futures on Energy Use and Climate Policy'.
De Cain, E, Longden, T & Sferra, F 2011, 'The role of energy technologies in achieving climate policies: updates of the WITCH model'.
In speeches delivered 24 hours apart, Labor leader Bill Shorten and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull made conflicting claims about the state of bulk-billing rates in Australia.
A bulk-billed consultation occurs when the fee charged by the doctor or medical provider is equal to the benefit paid by Medicare - leaving zero out-of-pocket cost to the patient. The percentage of Medicare-funded consultations that are bulk-billed is referred to as the bulk-billing rates. These rates are widely seen as a proxy indicator of the accessibility of Medicare-funded health care.
Shorten said that bulk-billing rates are falling. The next day, Turnbull stood at the same lectern and said bulk-billing rates are at record levels.
Who was right?
Emmerling, J, Drouet, L, Reis, LA, Bevione, M, Berger, L, Bosetti, V, Carrara, S, De Cian, E, De Maere D Aertrycke, G, Longden, T, Malpede, M, Marangoni, G, Sferra, F, Tavoni, M, Witajewski-Baltvilks, J & Havlik, P, 'The WITCH 2016 Model - Documentation and Implementation of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways'.
This paper describes the WITCH - World Induced Technical Change Hybrid - model in its structure, calibration, and the implementation of the SSP/RCP scenario implementation. The WITCH model is a regionally disaggregated hard-linked model based on a Ramsey type optimal growth model and a detailed bottom-up energy sector model. A particular focus of the model is the modeling or technical change and RnD investments and the analysis of cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. Moreover, the WITCH 2016 version now includes land-use change modeling based on the GLOBIOM model, and air pollutants, as well as detailed modeling of the transport sector and the possibility for stochastic modeling. This version has been also used to implement the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) set of scenarios and RCP based climate policies to provide a new set of climate scenarios. In this paper, we describe in detail the mathematical formulation of the WITCH model, the solution method and calibration, as well as the implementation of the five SSP scenarios. This report therefore provides detailed information for interested users of the model, and for understanding the implementation of the different 'worlds" of the SSP.