Stephen joined UTS in 2010 as a Lecturer in the School of Mathematical Sciences. Prior to this, he was a Research Associate at the University of Glasgow and also worked in private sector consultancy/analysis in London. In addition, he is now an Associate Member of the Climate Change Cluster (C3) at UTS.
His primary research interests lie in the application of mathematical models to describe biological and ecological systems. The main motivation behind his work is a drive to develop readily implemented solutions and models for pressing real-world problems in the biological and environmental sciences. As such, he works primarily in multidisciplinary teams alongside marine biologists, microbial ecologists and environmental engineers.
His research projects have covered a vast range of applications from improving the design and efficiency of wastewater treatment systems to understanding and modelling the growth of biofilms on riverbeds. Current research topics include modelling the biogeography around the Great Barrier Reef, calibrating and interpreting data from marine fluorescence meters and examining the effect of habitat loss upon fish behaviour in marine parks.
Stephen is a keen and committed teacher and has co-ordinated and taught subjects from the first year undergraduate level through to Honours. He has supervised research students at both the Honours and PhD level. Additional to his main duties at UTS, he is a frequent and enthusiastic contributor to High School outreach programs and widening participation schemes.
Stephen holds a PhD in Civil Engineering from the University of Glasgow (2007) and a MMath in Mathematics from the University of Oxford (2003).
Citation for Outstanding Contribution to Student Learning (2017, Australian Awards for University Teaching)
Australian Mathematical Society (AustMS)
Australian and New Zealand Industrial and Applied Mathematics (ANZIAM)
ANZIAM (Australian and New Zealand Industrial and Applied Mathematics) Engineering Mathematics Group Committee member (2011-2013, 2017-2019)
Can supervise: YES
Lecturing and Co-Ordination:
37161: Probability and Random Variables
37262: Simulation Modelling
35101/37313: Introduction to Linear Dynamical Systems
35363: Stochastic Models
Mathematical Ecology and Biology (Honours reading subject)
Numerical Solutions of Stochastic Differential Equations (Honours reading subject)
Teaching and Learning Roles:
Program Director for School of Mathematical Sciences Honours students (BMathFin(Hons) and BSc(Hons)
Chair of School of Mathematical Sciences Honours Subcommittee
Program Director for BSc undergraduate students (Mathematical Sciences Foundation Stream)
Member of School of Mathematical Sciences Teaching and Learning Committee
Teaching and Learning Grants:
Slipping Between the Cracks? Maximising the Effectiveness of Prerequisite Paths (Vice-Chancellor's Learning and Teaching Small Grant 2013, in conjunction with Stephen Bush)
Bennett, N, Woodcock, S, Pluss, MA, Bennett, KJM, Deprez, D, Vaeyens, R, Lenoir, M & Fransen, J 2019, 'Forecasting the development of explosive leg power in youth soccer players', Science and Medicine in Football, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 131-137.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Monitoring athletic development in youth soccer can help sporting professionals monitor athletic development and evaluate the effectiveness of training interventions. However, long-term follow up in talent development programmes in youth soccer is complicated. Therefore, the aim of this study was to forecast the developmental trajectories of explosive leg power in youth soccer players. Methods: Mixed effects regression models were used to forecast explosive leg power (countermovement (CMJ) and standing broad jump (SBJ)) in a longitudinal sample of 2201 youth soccer players from two high level Belgian acedemies and the Belgian National teams. Players were aged between 6 and 20 years (mean age = 13.04 ± 3.18 y) and were subdivided into three age cohorts (6–10, 11–15, and 16–20 y) for CMJ and two age cohorts (6–16, and 17–20 y) for SBJ. Results: This study was able to accurately forecast explosive leg power using different regression equations in each age cohort. Conclusions: Researchers, coaches, and sporting professionals can use these methods to either predict future explosive leg power from current performance measures, monitor the development of explosive leg power, or assess the effectiveness of training interactions aimed at altering predicted developmental trajectories.
Ockelford, A, Woodcock, S & Haynes, H 2019, 'The Impact of Inter-flood Duration on Non-Cohesive Sediment Bed Stability', Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, vol. 44, no. 14, pp. 2861-2871.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Copeland, E, Leonard, K, Carney, R, Kong, J, Forer, M, Naidoo, Y, Oliver, BGG, Seymour, JR, Woodcock, S, Burke, CM & Stow, NW 2018, 'Chronic Rhinosinusitis: Potential Role of Microbial Dysbiosis and Recommendations for Sampling Sites', Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology, vol. 8, pp. 1-14.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Ajani, PA, Larsson, M, Woodcock, S, Rubio, A, Farrell, H, Brett, S & Murray, S 2018, 'Bloom drivers of the potentially harmful dinoflagellate Prorocentrum minimum (Pavillard) Schiller in a south eastern temperate Australian estuary', Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, vol. 215.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Falletta, J & Woodcock, S 2018, 'A simulation study of Texas hold `em poker: what Taylor Swift understandsand James Bond doesn't', Australia and New Zealand Industrial and Applied Mathematics (ANZIAM) Journal, vol. 60, no. 1, pp. 55-64.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Fransen, J, Baxter-Jones, A & Woodcock, S 2018, 'Responding to the Commentary on the Article: “Improving the Prediction of Maturity From Anthropometric Variables Using a Maturity Ratio”', Pediatric Exercise Science, pp. 1-3.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Fransen, J, Bush, S, Woodcock, S, Novak, A, Deprez, D, Baxter-Jones, ADG, Vaeyens, R & Lenoir, M 2018, 'Improving the Prediction of Maturity From Anthropometric Variables Using a Maturity Ratio', Pediatric Exercise Science, vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 296-307.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Purpose: This study aimed to improve the prediction accuracy of age at peak height velocity (APHV) from anthropometric assessment using nonlinear models and a maturity ratio rather than a maturity offset. Methods: The dataset used to develop the original prediction equations was used to test a new prediction model, utilizing the maturity ratio and a polynomial prediction equation. This model was then applied to a sample of male youth academy soccer players (n = 1330) to validate the new model in youth athletes. Results: A new equation was developed to estimate APHV more accurately than the original model (new model: Akaike information criterion: −6062.1, R2 = 90.82%; original model: Akaike information criterion = 3048.7, R2 = 88.88%) within a general population of boys, particularly with relatively high/low APHVs. This study has also highlighted the successful application of the new model to estimate APHV using anthropometric variables in youth athletes, thereby supporting the use of this model in sports talent identification and development. Conclusion: This study argues that this newly developed equation should become standard practice for the estimation of maturity from anthropometric variables in boys from both a general and an athletic population.
Fujise, L, Nitschke, MR, Frommlet, JC, Serôdio, J, Woodcock, S, Ralph, PJ & Suggett, DJ 2018, 'Cell Cycle Dynamics of Cultured Coral Endosymbiotic Microalgae (Symbiodinium) Across Different Types (Species) Under Alternate Light and Temperature Conditions', Journal of Eukaryotic Microbiology, vol. 65, pp. 505-517.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Woodcock, S 2018, 'Sdrawkcab scitamehtam: The case for understanding mathematics backwards', Australia and New Zealand Industrial and Applied Mathematics (ANZIAM) Journal, vol. 59, pp. C143-C154.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Lohr, KE, Smith, DJ, Suggett, DJ, Nitschke, MR, Dumbrell, AJ, Woodcock, S & Camp, EF 2017, 'Coral Community Structure and Recruitment in Seagrass Meadows', Frontiers in Marine Science, vol. 4, pp. 1-13.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Although biofilms represent one of the dominant forms of life in aqueous environments, our understanding of the assembly and development of their microbial communities remains relatively poor. In recent years, several studies have addressed this and have extended the concepts of succession theory in classical ecology into microbial systems. From these datasets, niche-based conceptual models have been developed explaining observed biodiversity patterns and their dynamics. These models have not, however, been formulated mathematically and so remain untested. Here, we further develop spatially resolved neutral community models and demonstrate that these can also explain these patterns and offer alternative explanations of microbial succession. The success of neutral models suggests that stochastic effects alone may have a much greater influence on microbial community succession than previously acknowledged. Furthermore, such models are much more readily parameterised and can be used as the foundation of more complex and realistic models of microbial community succession.
Camp, EF, Smith, DJ, Evenhuis, C, Enochs, I, Manzello, D, Woodcock, S & Suggett, DJ 2016, 'Acclimatization to high-variance habitats does not enhance physiological tolerance of two key Caribbean corals to future temperature and pH', PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, vol. 283, no. 1831.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Heidrich, ES, Curtis, TP, Woodcock, S & Dolfing, J 2016, 'Quantification of effective exoelectrogens by most probable number (MPN) in a microbial fuel cell', Bioresource Technology, vol. 218, pp. 27-30.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
The objective of this work was to quantify the number of exoelectrogens in wastewater capable of producing current in a microbial fuel cell by adapting the classical most probable number (MPN) methodology using current production as end point. Inoculating a series of microbial fuel cells with various dilutions of domestic wastewater and with acetate as test substrate yielded an apparent number of exoelectrogens of 17 per ml. Using current as a proxy for activity the apparent exoelectrogen growth rate was 0.03 h−1. With starch or wastewater as more complex test substrates similar apparent growth rates were obtained, but the apparent MPN based numbers of exoelectrogens in wastewater were significantly lower, probably because in contrast to acetate, complex substrates require complex food chains to deliver the electrons to the electrodes. Consequently, the apparent MPN is a function of the combined probabilities of members of the food chain being present.
Woodcock, S 2016, 'Development of enquiry-oriented learning in the mathematical sciences', Australia and New Zealand Industrial and Applied Mathematics (ANZIAM) Journal, vol. 57, pp. C1-C13.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Woodcock, S, Manojlovic, B, Baird, ME & Ralph, PJ 2015, 'A Poisson-Pareto Model of chlorophyll-A Fluorescence Signals in Marine Environments', Australia and New Zealand Industrial and Applied Mathematics (ANZIAM) Journal, vol. 56, no. 4, pp. 373-370.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Woodcock, S & Bush, S 2014, 'Slipping between the cracks? Maximising the effectiveness of prerequisite paths in UTS Maths degrees', Australia and New Zealand Industrial and Applied Mathematics (ANZIAM) Journal, vol. 55, pp. C297-C314.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Woodcock, S, Besemer, K, Battin, TJ, Curtis, TP & Sloan, WT 2013, 'Modelling the effects of dispersal mechanisms and hydrodynamic regimes upon the structure of microbial communities within fluvial biofilms', Environmental Microbiology, vol. 15, no. 4, pp. 1216-1225.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
The spatial distribution of microbial taxa is determined primarily by physical and chemical environments and by dispersal. In a homogeneous landscape with limited dispersal, the similarity in abundance of taxa in samples declines with separation distance. We present a one-dimensional model for the spatial autocorrelation in abundances arising from immigration from some remote community and dispersal between environmentally similar landscape patches. Spatial correlation in taxa abundances were calculated from biofilms from the beds of two flumes which differed only in their bedform profiles; one flat and the other a periodic sawtooth shape. The hydraulic regime is approximately uniform over the flat bed, whereas the sawtooth induces fast flow over the peaks and recirculation in the troughs. On the flat bed, the correlation decline between samples was reproduced by a model using one biologically reasonable parameter. A decline was apparent in the other flume; however, a better fit was achieved when dispersal was not assumed constant everywhere. However, analysis of finer-resolution data for the heterogeneous flume suggested even this model did not adequately capture the community's complexity. We conclude that hydrodynamics are a strong driver of taxa-abundance patterns in stream biofilms. However, local adaptability must also be considered to build up a complete mechanistic model.
Sloan, WT, Woodcock, S, Lunn, M, Head, I & Curtis, TP 2007, 'Modeling taxa-abundance distributions in microbial communities using environmental sequence data', Microbial Ecology, vol. 53, no. 3, pp. 443-455.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
We show that inferring the taxa-abundance distribution of a microbial community from small environmental samples alone is difficult. The difficulty stems from the disparity in scale between the number of genetic sequences that can be characterized and the number of individuals in communities that microbial ecologists aspire to describe. One solution is to calibrate and validate a mathematical model of microbial community assembly using the small samples and use the model to extrapolate to the taxa-abundance distribution for the population that is deemed to constitute a community. We demonstrate this approach by using a simple neutral community assembly model in which random immigrations, births, and deaths determine the relative abundance of taxa in a community. In doing so, we further develop a neutral theory to produce a taxa-abundance distribution for large communities that are typical of microbial communities. In addition, we highlight that the sampling uncertainties conspire to make the immigration rate calibrated on the basis of small samples very much higher than the true immigration rate. This scale dependence of model parameters is not unique to neutral theories; it is a generic problem in ecology that is particularly acute in microbial ecology. We argue that to overcome this, so that microbial ecologists can characterize large microbial communities from small samples, mathematical models that encapsulate sampling effects are required
Woodcock, S, Van der Gast, CJ, Bell, T, Lunn, M, Curtis, TP, Head, I & Sloan, WT 2007, 'Neutral assembly of bacterial communities', FEMS Microbiology Letters, vol. 62, no. 2, pp. 171-180.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Two recent, independent advances in ecology have generated interest and controversy: the development of neutral community models (NCMs) and the extension of biogeographical relationships into the microbial world. Here these two advances are linked by predicting an observed microbial taxavolume relationship using an NCM and provide the strongest evidence so far for neutral community assembly in any group of organisms, macro or micro. Previously, NCMs have only ever been fitted using species-abundance distributions of macroorganisms at a single site or at one scale and parameter values have been calibrated on a case-by-case basis. Because NCMs predict a malleable two-parameter taxa-abundance distribution, this is a weak test of neutral community assembly and, hence, of the predictive power of NCMs. Here the two parameters of an NCM are calibrated using the taxa-abundance distribution observed in a small waterborne bacterial community housed in a bark-lined tree-hole in a beech tree. Using these parameters, unchanged, the taxa-abundance distributions and taxavolume relationship observed in 26 other beech tree communities whose sizes span three orders of magnitude could be predicted. In doing so, a simple quantitative ecological mechanism to explain observations in microbial ecology is simultaneously offered and the predictive power of NCMs is demonstrated.
Curtis, TP, Head, I, Lunn, M, Woodcock, S, Schloss, PD & Sloan, WT 2006, 'What is the extent of prokaryotic diversity?', Proceedings Of The Royal Society Of London Series..., vol. 361, no. 1475, pp. 2023-2037.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
The extent of microbial diversity is an intrinsically fascinating subject of profound practical importance. The term `diversity may allude to the number of taxa or species richness as well as their relative abundance. There is uncertainty about both, primarily because sample sizes are too small. Non-parametric diversity estimators make gross underestimates if used with small sample sizes on unevenly distributed communities. One can make richness estimates over many scales using small samples by assuming a species/taxa-abundance distribution. However, no one knows what the underlying taxa-abundance distributions are for bacterial communities. Latterly, diversity has been estimated by fitting data from gene clone libraries and extrapolating from this to taxa-abundance curves to estimate richness. However, since sample sizes are small, we cannot be sure that such samples are representative of the community from which they were drawn. It is however possible to formulate, and calibrate, models that predict the diversity of local communities and of samples drawn from that local community. The calibration of such models suggests that migration rates are small and decrease as the community gets larger. The preliminary predictions of the model are qualitatively consistent with the patterns seen in clone libraries in `real life. The validation of this model is also confounded by small sample sizes. However, if such models were properly validated, they could form invaluable tools for the prediction of microbial diversity and a basis for the systematic exploration of microbial diversity on the planet.
Sloan, WT, Lunn, M, Woodcock, S, Head, I, Nee, S & Curtis, TP 2006, 'Quantifying the roles of immigration and chance in shaping prokaryote community structure', Environmental Microbiology, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 732-740.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Naturally occurring populations of bacteria and archaea are vital to life on the earth and are of enormous practical significance in medicine, engineering and agriculture. However, the rules governing the formation of such communities are still poorly understood, and there is a need for a usable mathematical description of this process. Typically, microbial community structure is thought to be shaped mainly by deterministic factors such as competition and niche differentiation. Here we show, for a wide range of prokaryotic communities, that the relative abundance and frequency with which different taxa are observed in samples can be explained by a neutral community model (NCM). The NCM, which is a stochastic, birthdeath immigration process, does not explicitly represent the deterministic factors and therefore cannot be a complete or literal description of community assembly. However, its success suggests that chance and immigration are important forces in shaping the patterns seen in prokaryotic communities.
Woodcock, S, Curtis, TP, Head, I, Lunn, M & Sloan, WT 2006, 'Taxa-area relationships for microbes: the unsampled and the unseen', Ecology Letters, vol. 9, no. 7, pp. 805-812.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
The recent observation of a powerlaw relationship, S ? Az, between number of taxa, S, and area, A, for microbial eukaryotes and bacteria suggests that this is one of the few generic relationships in ecology, applicable to plants, animals and microbes. However, the rate of increase in the number of species with area varies from approximately the fourth (z = 0.26) to as little as the 50th root (z = 0.0019) in microbes. This is an enormous range for which no quantitative explanation has been proffered. We show by sampling from synthetic populations that the disparity between sample and community sizes in microbial community surveys means z can be considerably underestimated and accrual of rare taxa with increasing area will not be detectable. Significant microbial taxaarea relationships will only be observed when changes in community structure within samples correlate with area. Thus, the very low z values observed recently cannot be used as the sole evidence in support of any particular community theory of community assembly. More generally, this suggests that our search for patterns and laws in the microbial world will be profoundly influenced and, potentially distorted by the sample sizes that are typical of microbial community surveys.
Woodcock, S 2019, 'Beyond rote: Assessing mathematical thinking, not solely results', Proceedings of the Australian Conference on Science and Mathematics Education (2019), Australian Conference on Science and Mathematics Educatiom, Sydney, pp. 188-188.
Woodcock, S 2019, 'Not all equals are equal: Decoupling thinking processes and results in mathematical assessments', The Mathematics Education for the Future Project: 15th International Conference, WTM, Maynooth, Ireland, pp. 631-636.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Ajani, P, Larsson, M, Rubio, A, Bush, S, Brett, S, Woodcock, S, Farrell, H & Murray, S 2018, 'Modelling harmful algal blooms in the Hawkesbury River, Australia (Oral Presentation)', Australian Shellfish Quality Assurance Advisory Committee Science Day, UTS.
Ajani, PA, Larsson, M, Rubio, A, Bush, S, Brett, S, Woodcock, S, Farrell, H & Murray, S 2018, 'Modelling harmful algal blooms in the Hawkesbury River, Australia (Oral Presentation)', Estuarine and Coastal Science Association Conference, Perth, WA.
Kingkam, P, Visser, S, Brown, J, Woodcock, S, Baird, T, Jackson, D & Morgan, L 2017, 'The argument for a bronchiectasis specific AR-DRG: Analysis of hospital discharge data (2012-2016) for patients registered to the Australian Bronchiectasis Registry', RESPIROLOGY, 22nd Congress of the APSR, WILEY, Sydney, pp. 206-207.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Jones, T 2019, 'Probability Expert Explains That Brooklyn Nine-Nine Brain Teaser', Gizmodo.
Liam, M 2019, 'Cold water poured on scientific studies based on 'statistical cult'', Sydney Morning Herald.
Woodcock, S 2019, 'The Blues have to battle the numbers if they’re to make it two-in-a-row in State of Origin', The Conversation.
Woodcock, S 2018, 'Aim for the middle: it could be your best shot for a goal in a penalty shootout', The Conversation.
Woodcock, S 2018, 'Can the Big Bash League’s backyard cricket bat flip truly be fair?', The Conversation.
Woodcock, S 2018, 'The NRL’s unrivalled equality means back-to-back premierships are very rare', The Conversation.
Woodcock, S 2017, 'How predictable are the Oscars? More than you might think', The Conversation.
Woodcock, S 2017, 'Paradoxes of probability and other statistical strangeness', The Conversation.
Palmer, C, Hall, G, Westerman, H, Henderson, J & Mountain, W 2016, 'The curious incentives and consequences of negative gearing', The Conversation.
Woodcock, S 2016, 'A tip to win your office footy tipping? Don’t listen to the experts', The Conversation.
Woodcock, S 2016, 'The Melbourne Cup: why you didn’t win', Money Magazine.
Woodcock, S 2016, 'We need a fairer system for deciding rain-affected games in Twenty20 cricket', The Conversation.
Woodcock, S 2015, 'NRL grand final: Who has the edge as Broncos face Cowboys?', The Conversation.
Woodcock, S 2015, 'Socceroos have a host-nation advantage in the Asian Cup'.
Woodcock, S 2015, 'The legacy of John Nash and his equilibrium theory'.
Woodcock, S 2015, 'The maths of congestion: springs, strings and traffic jams'.
Woodcock, S 2014, 'Do historical trends in Melbourne Cup champions point to a winner?'.
Woodcock, S 2014, 'Jarryd Hayne’s code-shift and the ‘unscrupulous diner’ in NRL'.
Woodcock, S 2014, 'Number crunching the odds on the NRL Grand Final', The Conversation.