Song received his Bachelor of Civil Engineering degree in 1991 from Southeast University, China and completed his PhD in Property Studies in 2009 from Massey University, New Zealand. His PhD thesis has been included in the Dean’s List of Exceptional Doctoral Theses. In 2011, Song won the prestigious national Property Institute of New Zealand Academic Award. In 2013, Song was invited to Tsinghua University, China for a scholar visit of 3 months. In 2017, Song left school of economics and finance at Massey University and joined UTS in the school of built environment. He teaches property finance, investment and financial analysis subjects at UTS.
Song has widely published his research work in top academic journals, including Journal of Banking & Finance, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Urban Studies, Housing Studies, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Journal of Housing Economics, Journal of Real Estate Research, International Journal of Strategic Property Management, Journal of Property Research, Journal of Property Investment and Finance, and Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management. He is the board director of Global Chinese Real Estate Congress and currently on the editorial board of Pacific Rim Property Research Journal and International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis.
Board director of Global Chinese Real Estate Congress
Editorial Board of Pacific Rim Property Research Journal
Editorial Board of International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
Can supervise: YES
His research interest and expertise are in real estate economics and finance, mainly in the areas of
- Land Use Patterns
- Housing Demand, Supply and Markets
- Regional Migration, Regional Labor Markets, Population, Neighborhood Characteristics
- Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis
- Real Estate Firms
- Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Tools on Housing
- Natural Disaster and Housing Market
- Real Estate Price Indexing
- Real Estate Asset Pricing
- Real Estate Appraisals
16655 Property Finance
16634 Financial Analysis
Tsui, KWH, Tan, D, Chow, CKW & Shi, S 2019, 'Regional airline capacity, tourism demand and housing prices: A case study of New Zealand', Transport Policy, vol. 77, pp. 8-22.View/Download from: Publisher's site
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd Tourism is one of the most important economic activities in New Zealand as tourists commonly travel by air to the various regions of this geographically isolated archipelago. This paper aims to investigate: (i) how regional tourism demand and airline capacity affect each other; and (ii) how both affect the housing prices in New Zealand's smaller regions. The paper empirically examines these inter-relationships between regional tourism demand and air transport, and their joint effects on the housing prices by constructing a three-stage least squares (3SLS) structural model employing a panel dataset of New Zealand's six smaller airports and regions from January 2008 to December 2014. Empirical results showed that increased regional tourism activity raises airline capacity and vice versa. Importantly, domestic airline capacity has a statistically significant impact on regional housing prices but not regional tourist demand (with the exception of Queenstown as a major and popular tourist centre). Policy implications of the key findings for regional tourism and air transport developments are discussed.
© 2018 Elsevier Inc. We document Chinese effects on international residential property price growth. We show that faster growth of the housing prices is associated with larger declines in recent past growth of China's GDP, larger increases in China's savings rate, or stronger rise in China's risks. These results are consistent with the notion of Chinese investing in overseas property markets when faced with less promising investment opportunities at home and when they have the means to invest offshore. These effects are stronger for countries where English is the primary spoken language, with better tertiary education quality, and that exhibit lower correlations between local property market price growth and China's interest rate.
© 2017 American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association Following the animal spirits theory proposed by Akerlof and Shiller, this article contributes to behavior economics by investigating the possibility of using auction sales data to capture evidence of irrational exuberance in the housing market. Using the monthly percentages of residential property auction sales for Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch regions in New Zealand from 2006 to 2015, and the exuberance testing method proposed by Phillips, Shi and Yu, we find that animal spirits have been developing in the Auckland housing market since 2013, but not in other regions. When compared to the results based on price-to-rent ratios, auction sales provide more meaningful results for identifying market-wide irrational exuberance at an early stage. The causality test on price-to-rent ratios and auction sales volume shows that asset prices and animal spirits influence each other in the short run. In the long run, prices have significant effect on animal spirits, but not vice versa.
Yang, Z, Fan, Y, Shi, S & Liao, J 2018, 'Political Connections and Corporate Borrowing: an Analysis on the Listed Real Estate Firms in China', Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, vol. 57, no. 3, pp. 1-36.View/Download from: Publisher's site
© 2017 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC This paper investigates the relationship between political connections and corporate borrowing behaviour using the listed real estate development firms in China from 2001 to 2014. Evidence from China is of particular importance due to China being the world’s largest emerging and transition economy. We find that the benefit of political connections is manifested in firms obtaining loans from state-controlled banks in the first instance, but that political influence diminishes over subsequent loan extensions. The performance based requirement prevents banks providing systemic favourable treatment to the connected real estate firms, especially after the Chinese banking system reform in 2006. The results provide fresh insight on the risks and benefits of political connections in the Chinese real estate market as it transitions from a centrally planned to a market based economy under on-going market oriented banking and political reforms.
Homeownership is an important component of the New Zealand
lifestyle. In recent decades, however, the ownership rate has been
declining and the reasons are poorly understood. This paper explains
the decline using a decomposition technique that has been applied
in other contexts. We find that borrowing constraints and ethnicity
have been particularly important contributors to the decline. Rapidly
rising house prices clearly have played a major role in the inability of
income to keep up with prices and the increased impact of borrowing
constraints. We also show that the increased down payment
requirements imposed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in 2013
are unlikely to have affected the ownership rate.
Shi, S, McCarthy, I & Mai, U 2017, 'Leaky building stigma: Can it be eliminated by remediation? Evidence from New Zealand', International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 328-351.View/Download from: Publisher's site
© 2017, © Emerald Publishing Limited. Purpose: This paper aims to investigate the stigma effect on property valuation/sale price for remediated residential leaky buildings constructed in New Zealand during the 1990s and 2000s. In particular, the authors want to know whether meeting the regulatory standards for remediation work will totally eliminate the negative stigma effect on remediated properties. Design/methodology/approach: Property transaction data for remediated leaky homes are often limited and not well recorded. Thus, it is very difficult or even impossible to identify those remediated properties in a standard property transaction data set. Moreover, a vast amount of information regarding the nature of property defects, remediation process and method is very difficult to obtain. In this study, members of the Property Institute of New Zealand (PINZ) and the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand were invited to participate in an online website survey. The results were then analysed using the principal component analysis, ordinary least squares and multinomial logit regressions. Findings: This study indicates that for monolithic-clad dwellings, the price discount due to leaky building stigma is significant. Depending on the severity of the leaking problems, this is about 11 per cent on average for general market stigma and an additional 5-10 per cent for post-remediation stigma. The results highlight that meeting the regulatory standards for remediation work cannot totally eliminate the negative stigma effect on remediated properties. The findings are in line with the lemon theory introduced by Akerlof (1970) and robust to individual characteristics of the survey respondent. Originality/value: General market stigma has been widely researched and documented in the literature. In contrast, there is a lack of research as to whether remediation will eliminate stigma, particularly in the presence of general market stigma. The authors are the first to show that p...
Tsui, WHK, Tan, DTW & Shi, S 2017, 'Impacts of airport traffic volumes on house prices of New Zealand’s major regions: A panel data approach', Urban Studies, vol. 54, no. 12, pp. 2800-2817.View/Download from: Publisher's site
The direction and mechanisms of the relationship between airport traffic volumes and property
prices are somewhat unclear in the literature. This study adds to that body of knowledge by
empirically investigating the role of airports as an essential driver of economic activity by creating
employment and facilitating air travel between destinations. The two-stage least-squares (2SLS)
approach is employed to investigate the link between house prices and the airport traffic volumes
of New Zealand’s three key regions and airports (Auckland, Canterbury/Christchurch and
Wellington) from July 2004 to December 2014. The empirical findings of the study suggest that
airport traffic volumes positively and significantly influence the urban house prices of New
Zealand’s three major regions.
This paper investigates tax inequities in assessed values and how these inequities in tax assessments affect house price indices using assessed values statistics. Using the unique rating valuation data from the top 10 cities of New Zealand during the period 1994–2009, it finds that house price measurements using the Sale Price Appraisal Ratio (SPAR) method have performed well compared to the repeated sales method suggested by Case and Shiller (1989) and the assessed values (AV) method proposed by Clapp and Giaccotto (1992). The presence of systematic estimated errors (both vertical and horizontal inequities) in assessed values posts a concern for house price measurements using assessed values statistics. In this situation, both the SPAR and AV methods benefit from the law of compensation of errors by using all transaction data. A policy implication is that the SPAR model is a good choice when using assessed values to measure house price movements at frequent time intervals, in particular for small countries.
In this paper, I propose an improved net rate methodology to use the assessed land values to proxy the land contribution in real estate appraisals. The assumption in the method is that neighborhood effects are capitalized into uniform land assessments. Compared to the traditional sales comparison approach, the method has potential to extend the selection of comparable properties. Simulations based on the theoretical and empirical data suggest the method benefits greatly from compensating for assessment errors. Since more sales can be incorporated into the proposed method, it is contended the appraisal result will be more objective and accurate. In practice, the method provides an attractive solution for property valuations in areas where there are limited sales.
Shi, S, Yang, Z, Tripe, D & Zhang, H 2015, 'Uncertainty and new apartment price setting: A real options approach', Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, vol. 35, pp. 574-591.View/Download from: Publisher's site
This paper investigates real estate development firms' pricing behaviours in Beijing, China during the period 2006-2008. New apartment prices are set by real estate development firms at the presale stage with widely observed price rigidity. Home buyers are often price takers without much power of negotiation in the price setting process. We find that real estate development firms apply real options theory for new apartment price setting at the presale stage, having regard also to apartments' physical attributes, firms' financial position and other economic conditions. Our results shed lights on the nature of residential real estate development market, in particular how changes in the market uncertainty will affect firms' price setting behaviours.
Shi, S, Jou, J-B & Tripe, D 2014, 'Can interest rates really control house prices? Effectiveness and implications for macroprudential policy', Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 47, pp. 15-28.View/Download from: Publisher's site
This paper investigates how changes in the central bank policy and retail mortgage rates affected real housing prices in New Zealand during the period 1999–2009. We find that real interest rates are significantly and positively related to real housing prices, indicating that increases in the policy rate may not be effective in depressing real housing prices. By testing interest rates, we also find some evidence of housing price bubbles. Our findings suggest that the central bank could have limited housing price bubbles if it had started to intervene in the housing market prior to 2003. Our results set international exemplars for using policy rates or macroprudential tools to cool the housing market, where the extent of policy rate adjustments is limited by internal or external economic factors.
This paper studies how commodity price movements have affected the local house prices in commodity-dependent economies, Australia and New Zealand. We build a geographically hierarchical empirical model and find that the commodity prices influence local house prices directly and also indirectly through macroeconomic variables. The impacts of commodity price changes are analogous to “income shocks” rather than “cost shocks”. Regional heterogeneity is also observed in terms of differential dynamic responses of local house prices to energy versus non-energy commodity price movements. The results are robust to alternative approaches. Directions for future research are also discussed.
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between dairy farmland prices
and farmland rental incomes in New Zealand from 1982 to 2009.
Design/methodology/approach – Using the net cash income received under a 50/50 share-milking
agreement to proxy the net cash rent, the paper attempts to explore the prices and rental incomes
relationship using the present value model and then apply them in a pool regression model to show
how farmers formulate their price bids.
Findings – Results show that over the long-term dairy farmland price growth tends to be in line
with rental growth. However, there is substantially higher growth in land prices in relation to the
rental growth since 2002. Moreover, the risk premium placed by farmland owners on future rental
cash flows since 2002 appears substantially below the historical average. The research further shows
that farmers nowadays place more emphasis on the current season’s payout than historical incomes in
their price bids.
Practical implications – As a consequence the recent high land prices will be extremely sensitive
to a permanent change to the low interest rate environment and future growth of dairy income.
A policy recommendation is also highlighted.
Originality/value – The results of this paper indicates that the rapid price appreciation for
New Zealand dairy farmland since 2000s might give rise to bubbles.
Shi, S 2011, 'Mortgage Interest Rates, Rents, and Local House Price Movements in New Zealand', Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, vol. 17, pp. 53-68.
Shi, S 2011, 'Serial Persistence and Risk Structure of Local Housing Market', Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, vol. 17, pp. 183-196.
Shi, S, Young, M & Hargreaves, B 2010, 'House price–volume dynamics: evidence from 12 cities in New Zealand', Journal of Real Estate Research.
Shi, S, Young, M & Hargreaves, B 2009, 'Issues in measuring a monthly house price index in New Zealand', Journal of Housing Economics, vol. 18, pp. 336-350.
Shi, S, Young, M & Hargreaves, B 2009, 'The ripple effect of local house price movements in New Zealand', Journal of Property Research, vol. 26, pp. 1-24.
Hargreaves, B, Shi, S & others 2006, 'A total returns index for investor housing in New Zealand', Australian Property Journal, vol. 39, pp. 47-47.
Hargreaves, B & Shi, S 2005, 'A total returns index for investor housing in New Zealand', Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, vol. 11, pp. 253-267.
Shi, S, Chang, Y & Anderson, H 2017, 'China and international housing price growth', American Real Estate and Urban Economist Association International conference, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Shi, S, Wu, S, Yang, Z & Malone, C 2017, 'Growth opportunities and the proximity of investment', Asian Real Estate Society and Global Chinese Real Estate Congress joint annual conference, Taichung, Taiwan.
Shi, S 2014, 'Using Assessed Values in Property Valuations', 21st Annual European Real Estate Society Conference, Annual European Real Estate Society Conference, European Real Estate Society (ERES), Bucharest, Romania.View/Download from: Publisher's site
This paper proposes an improved net rate analysis using the assessed land values to proxy market land values in real estate appraisals. Compared to the traditional sales comparison approach, the method has greatly simplified the comparison process and extended the potential pool of comparable sales. Simulations based on the theoretical and empirical data suggest that the method benefits much from the law of compensation of errors and the impact of measurement errors in assessor land values is small. The method could be applicable in a wide range of established areas where there are few vacant land sales.
Shi, S & McCarthy, I 2011, 'Dairy Farmland Prices and Return Expectations in New Zealand', 17th Pacific Rim Real Estate Society Conference, Pacific Rim Real Estate Society Conference, Gold Coast, Australia, pp. 17-19.
Using transactional data of New Zealand dairy farms over the period of
1981 to 2009, this paper investigated the relationship between dairy
farmland prices and farmers’ return expectations based on the present
value model. In short-term dairy farmland prices were positively correlated
to farmers’ income expectations but negatively related to total return
expectations. In long-term dairy farmland prices were significantly
influenced by the growth expectation from farmers for both income returns
and capital gains. It is debatable whether the current high growth
expectation on New Zealand dairy farms is sustainable.
Shi, S & Kabir, H 2018, 'Catch animal spirits in auction: evidence from New Zealand property market'.
Shi, S, Jou, J-B & Tripe, D 2013, 'How does the Official Cash Rate (OCR) Affect the Recent Housing Price in New Zealand?'.
Shi, S 2005, 'Total Returns Analysis for Auckland and Wellington Apartment Market: A Research Report Presented in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirement for the Master of Business Studies at Massey University'.