Love, PED, Sing, MCP, Ika, LA & Newton, S 2019, 'The cost performance of transportation projects: The fallacy of the Planning Fallacy account', Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, vol. 122, pp. 1-20.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd Delivering transportation projects to their budgeted cost remains a challenge for many governments worldwide. An issue that has hindered progress being made to address this problem has been the availability of empirical data that reflects the changing nature of cost estimates and their difference from a project's final account. Using a homogenous dataset provided by a public sector authority in Hong Kong, we analyse the differences between the approved budget, pre-tender estimates, contract sum and final accounts for approximately HK$115 billion (≈US$14 billion) worth of transportation projects. We demonstrate that 47% (i.e. ≈ 5 out 10) of the projects deviate from their approved budget. In particular, when we consider the difference between the approved budget and the final contract sum, we reveal there are cases of both over and under estimating. We, therefore, question the Planning Fallacy as an appropriate explanation for describing 'how large infrastructure projects work'. The fallacy of the Planning Fallacy account revealed in this paper leads us to call upon those agencies that have actively embraced this theory to reconsider their approaches to cost estimating and risk analysis used to deliver their transportation infrastructure to ensure taxpayers are provided with better value for money.
Mohagheghi, V, Mousavi, SM, Mojtahedi, M & Newton, S 2019, 'Evaluating large, high-technology project portfolios using a novel interval-valued Pythagorean fuzzy set framework: An automated crane project case study', Expert Systems with Applications, pp. 113007-113007.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Xiong, B, Newton, S, Li, V, Skitmore, M & Xia, B 2019, 'Hybrid approach to reducing estimating overfitting and collinearity', Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 26, no. 10, pp. 2170-2185.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
The purpose of this paper is to present an approach to address the overfitting and collinearity problems that frequently occur in predictive cost estimating models for construction practice. A case study, modeling the cost of preliminaries is proposed to test the robustness of this approach.
A hybrid approach is developed based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and principal component regression (PCR). Cost information for a sample of 204 UK school building projects is collected involving elemental items, contingencies (risk) and the contractors' preliminaries. An application to estimate the cost of preliminaries for construction projects demonstrates the method and tests its effectiveness in comparison with such competing models as: alternative regression models, three artificial neural network data mining techniques, case-based reasoning and support vector machines.
The experimental results show that the AIC–PCR approach provides a good predictive accuracy compared with the alternatives used, and is a promising alternative to avoid overfitting and collinearity.
This is the first time an approach integrating the AIC and PCR has been developed to offer an improvement on existing methods for estimating construction project Preliminaries. The hybrid approach not only reduces the risk of overfitting and collinearity, but also results in better predictability compared with the commonly used stepwise regression.
Ishak, SSM & Newton, S 2018, 'Testing a Model of User Resistance Towards Technology Adoption in Construction Organizations', International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management, vol. 15, no. 6.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
© 2018 World Scientific Publishing Company. Drawing upon diffusion of innovation (DoI) theory, technology acceptance models (TAMs), social network perspective and resistance literature, the study developed and tested a model, named integrated resistance factor model (IRFM), which integrates four key elements i.e. resistance indicators, support network factors, experience and disposition factors and the integration and accessibility factors. The study investigated if the model applies in a selected technology, namely online project information management systems (OPIMS). The IRFM was tested with partial least square (PLS) techniques and results from the R2 analysis of the whole PLS structural model were significant and the data were coherence with the proposed model (R2=0.484). These results indicated that user resistance to technology innovation can be predicted using the IRFM.
Mojtahedi, M, Newton, S & Von Meding, J 2017, 'Predicting the resilience of transport infrastructure to a natural disaster using Cox's proportional hazards regression model', NATURAL HAZARDS, vol. 85, no. 2, pp. 1119-1133.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
© 2016 Siti Salwa Mohd Ishak and Sidney Newton. The process and implementation strategy of information technology in construction is generally considered through the limiting prism of theoretical contexts generated from innovation diffusion and acceptance. This research argues that more attention should be given to understanding the positive effects of resistance. The study develops a theoretical framing for the Integrated Resistance Factor Model (IRFM). The framing uses a combination of diffusion of innovation theory, technology acceptance model and social network perspective. The model is tested to identify the most significant resistance factors using Partial Least Square (PLS) technique. All constructs proposed in the model are found to be significant, valid and consistent with the theoretical framework. IRFM is shown to be an effective and appropriate model of user resistance factors. The most critical factors to influence technology resistance in the online project information management system (OPIMS) context are: support from leaders and peers, complexity of the technology, compatibility with key work practices; and pre-trial of the technology before it is actually deployed. The study provides a new model for further research in technology innovation specific to the construction industry.
© 2016 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Where logical positivism potentially leads to abstraction, social constructivism potentially leads to relativism. Neither perspective does full justice to the study of construction management expertise. Social realism aims to recover declarative knowledge (theory) as an integral component of expertise without denying a place for deliberate practice. The issue is how to bridge between explicit and implicit forms of knowledge. Returning to the account of tacit knowing proposed by Polanyi, the nature of expertise is characterized in both declarative and personal knowledge terms. This is a limited characterization of expertise, but the social realism enterprise raises a number of critical issues: the body of knowledge; human agency; and deliberate practice. From a social realism perspective the production of theory is critical to the exercise of expertise, but theory is meaningless in the context of professional practice unless and until it is embodied and enacted. It is the being of construction management that gives purpose and value to the theory.
Newton, S, Wang, R & Lowe, R 2015, 'Blended reality and presence', International Journal of Design Sciences and Technology, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 113-131.
© Europia Productions, 2015. Human experience of public space is changing as virtual space blends with real space and technology provides increasingly hyper-immersive virtual environments. The purpose of this study is to reformulate the framework within which our virtual experience of location and self might usefully be considered, and this is articulated in terms of presence. We review the distinction between immersion and presence, illustrate various facets of immersion using a current virtual reality system specific to architecture and construction, and consider the key features of prominent presence theories. The results of an empirical study to evaluate the utility of a widely adopted survey instrument (the Slater-Usoh-Steed presence questionnaire) are presented and discussed. Incongruously, results indicate that users reporting their experience of virtual reality score that experience higher in presence terms than users experiencing the physical world. New perspectives drawn from emerging brain theory are required.
Wang, R, Newton, S & Lowe, R 2015, 'Experiential learning styles in the age of a virtual surrogate', Archnet-IJAR, vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 93-110.
© 2015 Archnet-IJAR. There is a long-held sense in general that the increasing use of computers and digital technology changes how a user experiences and learns about the world, not always for the better. This paper reports on a longitudinal study of 245 architecture and construction students over a two year period which examines the impact that virtual reality technologies have on the learning style preferences of students. A series of controlled experiments tests for the impact that increasing exposure to a proprietary virtual reality system has on the mode of learning and learning style preferences of individuals and particular cohorts. The results confirm that when virtual reality applications are used in teaching and learning, the learning behaviours will favour a more concrete experiential mode of learning and a preference for the Accommodator learning style. However, the results also demonstrate, consistently and for the first time, individual students do not privilege any particular mode of learning or learning style preference to any significant extent but rather engage in all modes and represent all learning styles. Novel visualisation techniques are introduced toexamine and discuss this contrast.
Zhang, L, Zhou, P, Newton, S, Fang, J-X, Zhou, D-Q & Zhang, L-P 2015, 'Evaluating clean energy alternatives for Jiangsu, China: An improved multi-criteria decision making method', ENERGY, vol. 90, pp. 953-964.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to review the study of leadership and examine potential new directions specific to innovation research in the construction industry. Design/methodology/approach – An editorial review of current literature and reflective critique of leadership research specific to the construction industry. Findings – Two key barriers are identified: a general focus on individual leadership qualities, rather than leadership as an activity; the problems with qualitative research methodologies in general, and grounded theory specifically. Originality/value – The intention is to promote a more grounded theoretical approach to the study of leadership in order to encourage research publications in journals such as Construction Innovation. © 2009, Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Berthold, MR, Sudweeks, F, Newton, S & Coyne, RD 1997, 'Clustering on the net: Applying an autoassociative neural network to computer-mediated discussions', Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, vol. 2, no. 4.
ProjectH, a research group of a hundred researchers, produced a huge amount of data from computer mediated discussions. The data classified several thousand postings from over 30 newsgroups into 46 categories. One approach to extract typical examples from this database is presented in this paper. An autoassociative neural network is trained on all 3000 coded messages and then used to construct typical messages under certain specified conditions. With this method the neural network can be used to create "typical" messages for several scenarios. This paper illustrates the architecture of the neural network that was used and explains the necessary modifications to the coding scheme. In addition several "typicality sets" produced by the neural net are shown and their generation is explained. In conclusion, the autoassociative neural network is used to explore threads and the types of messages that typically initiate or contribute longer lasting threads.
Coyne, R, McLaughlin, S & Newton, S 1996, 'Information technology and praxis: A survey of computers in design practice', ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING B-PLANNING & DESIGN, vol. 23, no. 5, pp. 515-551.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Atkin, B & Newton, S 1995, 'Guest Editorial: Special Issue on Information Technology in Construction', Construction Management and Economics, vol. 13, no. 5, pp. 367-368.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Newton, S 1992, 'Methods of analysing risk exposure in the cost estimates of high quality offices', Construction Management and Economics, vol. 10, no. 5, pp. 431-449.View/Download from: Publisher's site
The paper considers two non-deterministic methods of analysing the risk exposure in a cost estimate. Both methods are applied to the same data sample of eight high quality office buildings. An assessment of each method is made in the context of this practical application. The common practice of allowing for risk through an all-embracing contingency sum or percentage addition is challenged. Rather than excluding conventional, deterministic methods, they are here presented as possibly the only effective foundation on which to base risk management in cost estimating. © 1992, Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. All rights reserved.
There is little order or formal direction to current cost modelling research. This paper proposes a basic classification system with which both to set out the overall topology of cost modelling as a distinct subject, and to provide the much needed points of reference on which individual research contributions can be located. The taxonomy is used to review over 50 reported cost models. The analysis of this review highlights that current emphasis lies with non-specific, macro, price models which use abstract units of measurement, and are intended to be used at the sketch design stage. These models generally use simulation techniques based on functional dependencies, with implicit assumptions and a deterministic outcome. On current trends, the preferred models of the future will use as-built units of measurement, and make considerably more use of stochastic techniques. One criteria for which there appears far too little concern, is in making the assumptions within the model more explicit. © 1991, Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. All rights reserved.
Current developments in computer-aided design (CAD) have evolved largely through studies of tangible design objects-drawings, documents, models. This may not be an appropriate focus for research attention. The argument is presented here that more significant questions are raised when research is oriented towards the designer's own 'self'. Failure to address questions other than those related only to machines within themselves will fast make CAD research irrelevant to design. © 1989.
This paper addresses one of the basic assumptions to underpin current design theory in general and computer-aided design research in particular. It is the notion of causation. An argument is presented that design hinges on an understanding of the dependencies and interrelationships which uniquely structure each design problem. Unfortunately 'structure' appears to be being interpreted by the wider research community in simple cause and effect terms; possibly because it then merges extremely well within computer technologies such as the expert system. Studies have shown, however, that taking such an over-simplistic view of causation poses fundamental problems. These problems have the potential completely to undermine much of current design research. © 1988.
Newton, S 2017, 'An additive statistical modelling approach to the analysis of transport infrastructure flood risk-based resilience' in Hromadka, T & Rao, P (eds), Flood Risk Management, IntechOpen, pp. 93-107.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Newton, S 2017, 'Crowdsourcing Public Participation in Sustainable Built Environment Development: The Democratisation of Expertise' in Lombardi, P, Shen, GQ & Brandon, PS (eds), Future Challenges in Evaluating and Managing Sustainable Development in the Built Environment, Wiley-Blackwell, pp. 93-107.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) are becoming increasingly popular around the world. However, concerns around the politicisation, transparency and failure of numerous PPP have fuelled community mistrust in official government messages about the economic, social and environmental risks and opportunities of these projects. While community trust in government initiatives has been explored by social psychologists in numerous controversial policy areas such as nuclear power and genetic engineering, PPP projects have been ignored in these analyses. Similarly, while the subject of risk in PPPs has been explored extensively in construction management research from an 'insider's' perspective, the challenge of managing 'outside' community concerns about these projects, has been largely neglected. To address these gaps in knowledge, a new conceptual framework is presented which is based on an integration of Poortinga and Pidgeon's (2003) Dimensionality of Trust theory, Kasperson et al.'s (2003) theory of risk perception and Rowe and Frewer's (2005) typology of public engagement. Using these new theoretical lenses, a number of important propositions are derived to guide future empirical work in this area.
Newton, S & Lowe, R 2015, 'Situational elearning with immersive technologies', ISEC 2015 - 8th International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference: Implementing Innovative Ideas in Structural Engineering and Project Management, pp. 3-12.
Copyright © 2015 ISEC Press. Immersive digital technologies simulate key aspects of the physical world to provide visual, aural, haptic and other cues to the user that create a keen sense of presence or being in the simulated situation. There is broad potential application for such immersive technologies in construction, including the delivery of managed first-person experiences of construction activities where access to actual situations may be problematic or risky. The Situation Engine is an application that makes specific and adaptive practical experience available to users in a hyper-immersive digital rendition of a real-world context. This paper will describe a particular application of the Situation Engine to teaching undergraduate architecture and building students about domestic construction technology in Australia. The paper also reports on a student survey evaluating a trial of situational e-learning with 150 undergraduate students, gauging their views on of their learning experiences with the Situation Engine. There was strongest agreement that this video game technology is useful to a specific understanding of design and/or construction practice, with some reservations over the approach as a replacement for actual work experience.
Newton, S & Goldsmith, R 2011, 'An analysis of stakeholder preferences for threshold learning outcomes in construction management in Australia', Association of Researchers in Construction Management, ARCOM 2011 - Proceedings of the 27th Annual Conference, Association of Researchers in Construction Management Annual Conference, pp. 127-136.
As a precursor to a new national regulatory and quality agency for higher education in Australia, the Australian Teaching and Learning Council (ALTC) has been commissioned to work with clusters of discipline communities to begin to specify how Threshold Learning Outcomes (TLOs) particular to each discipline might be used as a basis for academic standards. In 2010, a series of 14 workshops and follow-up questionnaires was convened to examine the preferences of key stakeholder groups for particular TLOs. A thematic analysis of the workshops identified six broad classifications: Judgement, Communication, Self-Development, Knowledge, Innovation and Work-Integrated Learning. Draft TLO statements for each have now been developed. An analysis of the stakeholder preferences reveals significant differences and interesting similarities in the preferences being expressed. These differences are examined in terms of TLO and source classifications. Results confirm that Judgement is generally a low preference for Industry and Students. There is also a strong case for curriculum review around Innovation. There is consistently high preference expressed for the development of graduates as individuals. Overall, the strong message from this data is that Industry is uncomfortable with learning outcomes being expressed in other than a traditional competency statement form. A critical requirement is to come not only to a shared expression of the TLOs, but also a shared understanding of them.
Newton, S & Lowe, R 2011, 'Using an analytics engine to understand the design and construction of domestic buildings', COBRA 2011 - Proceedings of RICS Construction and Property Conference, pp. 410-419.
Understanding domestic building technology is fundamental to the learning and teaching of building and construction. Like any subject dealing with technology and process, domestic construction makes most sense when it can directly be experienced by the learner. One possibility is to develop the rich visual and behavioural modelling capabilities of advanced video game engines such as Crytek CryENGINE®2. This game engine has been modified to perform as an analytics engine specific to the design and construction of domestic buildings. The system is currently being developed and trialled as a learning and teaching resource with a large cohort of undergraduate construction management students. Users are required to source a variety of tools within the game environment which they use to analyse a range of domestic building representations. The analytics are used to investigate specific design and construction options and diagnose deliberate design faults or building regulation breaches incorporated into the models. Results of this project identify the key perspectives necessary to scope such a project; the critical aspects around which development of such a resource needs to articulate; and considers the separate evaluation processes required for the game development, the learning and teaching outcome and the project itself.
Newton, S 2008, 'Changing the framework for leadership in the construction industry', Association of Researchers in Construction Management, ARCOM 2008 - Proceedings of the 24th Annual Conference, pp. 433-442.
When you think about effective leadership you typically conceive of leadership in terms of inspiration and innovation; inspirational, because leadership is about influencing people to do things you want them to do, willingly and well; innovative, because leadership is about change and risk-taking. There seems little contention in such a conception of effective leadership. However, there is growing frustration in the management literature with such a conception of leadership, expressed in personal attribute and stylistic terms. This paper examines the root of that frustration and introduces an alternative framework conceived around leadership as an activity: adaptive leadership. Whilst adaptive leadership was originally developed as a response to the tough social and environmental problems we increasingly face, the nature of the construction industry is such that similar features now apply. A case is developed for a change, in the framework for leadership in the construction industry.
Newton, S, Lenard, D & McGeorge, D 2008, 'Benchmarking quality developments', COBRA 2008 - Construction and Building Research Conference of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.
The property development industry has been driven resolutely, for many years, by the financial bottom line return to the individual/organisation. Urban planning has sought to frame such development, design has provided quality conditioning, and society has exerted influence through standard market forces. But with a changing social and environmental context, and with a growing realisation that the urban environment contributes in a very real and significant way to individual, national and community wealth, the traditional financial metrics for property development are proving inadequate. This paper outlines a proposal for a new benchmarking methodology for the assessment of development value. The benchmarking process seeks to express the full compass of worth created by a project in its entirety, over its full useful life. The paper describes the fundamental features of an effective benchmarking methodology and explores the possible components for a Development Value Index. Based broadly around the 2007 Global Competitiveness Report by the World Economic Forum the paper outlines a measurement framework comprising ten (10) aspects: four (4) that relate directly to the developer organisation, and six (6) that relate directly to the development project. © RICS.
Newton, S 1994, 'Predicting appropriate provisions for IT in building services', National Conference Publication - Institution of Engineers, Australia, pp. 785-790.
Future predictions about information technology (IT) are important to building services designers and managers, because they provide the necessary basis for decisions on what may or may not be appropriate service provisions in current building projects. This paper will describe an orientation to IT based on the idea that the ways in which we think about and conceive of a new technology have important and direct influence on the particular technology's ultimate impact. The paper will illustrate a series of common perceptions about IT: a new medium for expression; a new form of mass communication; an artificial intelligence; a ubiquitous facility. Each different metaphor tells us something different about the future impact of IT. These implications will be identified and considered in the paper.
Newton, S 1991, 'Risk analysis. Escaping the straight jacket', National Conference Publication - Institution of Engineers, Australia, pp. 75-79.
Consideration is given to how innovative design alternatives might be given more equitable consideration through risk management. Without modification, conventional estimating practice is unsuited to the role. Monte Carlo simulation is used to analyse the risk exposure of different estimates for high quality office buildings in the Sydney CBD.
Newton, S 1982, 'COST MODELLING: A TENTATIVE SPECIFICATION.', pp. 192-209.