Wang, S, Leslie, L, Rai, T, Speer, M & Kuleshov, Y 2020, 'Analysis of a Southerly Buster Event and Associated Solitary Waves', Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, vol. 69, pp. 205-215.View/Download from: Publisher's site
This paper is a detailed case study of the southerly buster of October 6-7, 2015, along the New South Wales coast. It takes advantage of recently available Himawari-8 high temporal- and spatial-resolution satellite data, and other observational data. The data analyses support the widespread view that the southerly buster is a density current, coastally trapped by the Great Dividing Range. In addition, it appears that solitary waves develop in this event because the prefrontal boundary layer is shallow and stable. A simplified density current model produced speeds matching well with observational southerly buster data, at both Nowra and Sydney airports. Extending the density current theory, to include inertia-gravity effects, suggests that the solitary waves travel at speeds approximately 20% faster than the density current. This speed difference is consistent with the high-resolution satellite data, which shows the solitary waves moving increasingly ahead of the leading edge of the density current.
Speer, M 2014, 'Conceptual Models of Severe Flash Flood Producing Rain in Two Distinct New South Wales Locations.', Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research Research Letters, no. 11.
Speer, MS 2013, 'Dust storm frequency and impact over Eastern Australia determined by state of Pacific climate system', Weather and Climate Extremes, vol. 2, pp. 16-21.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Dust storms resulting from synoptic-scale mid-latitude frontal systems affect inland, eastern Australia, predominantly through spring and summer but extend to the east coast only rarely when strong, frontal westerly winds crossing the continent are sustained over the coast. Here it is shown that extreme westerly wind dust events are anomalous to the more pervasive southerly winds that have shaped the sand dunes over inland eastern Australia. It is also shown that while antecedent dry conditions are very important, higher SON and DJF dust storm frequencies from 1957 to the mid-1970s occurred due to both anomalously strong, southerly winds existing on the western side of a cyclonic anomaly adjacent to the east Australian coast, which resulted from the state of the Pacific climate system, and an anticyclonic anomaly at the top of the Great Australian Bight. A change in BoM observing practice, after 1973, is unlikely to be the major cause of changes in total dust frequency from the mid-1970s. Rather, extreme rainfall years are more likely to have been a major contributing factor to the large decreases in dust occurrence from 1973 to 1976, in addition to the other La Niña periods of 2000/01 to 2010/11. Synoptic-scale frontal systems in the westerlies that result in the transport of dust remained low in frequency throughout the whole period from 1957 to 2011. However, those dust storms in the westerlies that do reach the east coast, although infrequent, tend to occur during El Niño-dominated years. On the other hand, they occur during both negative and positive phases of the southern annular mode (SAM). This ambiguity with the SAM phase is consistent with the fact that the mid-latitude westerlies and associated frontal systems are usually at their most equatorward position in Australian longitudes in late winter/spring regardless of the SAM phase. This suggests little change is likely in the frequency of westerly induced dust storms in late winter/spring over central/e...
Speer, MS, Phillips, J & Hanstrum, BN 2011, 'Meteorological aspects of the 31 March 2009 Coffs Harbour flash flood', Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, vol. 61, no. 4, pp. 201-210.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Flash flooding from short duration, torrential rain occurred in the city of Coffs Harbour on the New South Wales north coast during the afternoon and evening of 31 March 2009 when totals of more than 300 millimetres were recorded in the hills immediately to the west of the city. Meteorological analysis of the event showed that several factors combined to produce the flooding. These included a moist, convergent low-level airflow onto the hills five to ten kilometres inland from Coffs Harbour, a strongly backing vertical wind profile favourable for broadscale ascent, and the presence of a mid-tropospheric trough to the west which assisted upmotion and reduced the static stability in the region. A southwesterly surface flow, induced by the orientation of the hills near Coffs Harbour, also enhanced the backing of the wind with height (and implied ascent through warm air advection) further intensifying the vertical motion in the trough and was coincident with the heaviest period of rainfall. This slow moving pattern provided an efficient dynamical mechanism that anchored the rain over the hills for several hours, similar to a Coffs Harbour severe flash flood event thirteen years earlier. Model forecast guidance of these factors, combined with using a multiple of approximately three times the maximum ensemble-predicted rainfall amounts over the highest topography nearby, is capable of providing valuable information to forecasters of the potential for dangerous flash flooding in the Coffs Harbour Creek catchment.
Speer, MS, Leslie, LM & Fierro, AO 2011, 'Australian east coast rainfall decline related to large scale climate drivers', CLIMATE DYNAMICS, vol. 36, no. 7-8, pp. 1419-1429.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Speer, MS, Wiles, P & Pepler, A 2009, 'Low pressure systems off the New South Wales coast and associated hazardous weather: Establishment of a database', Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, vol. 58, no. 1, pp. 29-39.View/Download from: Publisher's site
The New South Wales (NSW) coast is subject to heavy rain, strong wind and large waves resulting from low pressure systems over the adjacent Tasman Sea that develop from a variety of synoptic and mesoscale mechanisms. A database of these maritime lows and their impacts has been developed in the NSW Climate Services Centre of the Bureau of Meteorology. The database currently extends back to 1970 and includes data on rainfall amounts, with wind speed and significant wave height data still to be added. The database events were classified into six synoptic types based on the mean sea level pressure synoptic pattern in which the lows formed. The six types are: inland trough lows (30 per cent), easterly trough lows (14 per cent), and ex-tropical cyclones (4 per cent), all of which originate in the subtropical or tropical easterlies; and, lows forming on a wave on a front (37 per cent) decaying front lows (12 per cent) and lows in the westerlies (3 per cent), the latter two of which originate from mid-latitude low pressure systems or fronts in the westerlies. Since 1970, only inland trough lows have shown a significant increase in frequency which is consistent with a slight increase in spring rainfall in an area over northeast NSW over the same period. In contrast, there has been a decrease in ex-tropical cyclone numbers impacting the NSW coast since 1970, which is consistent with a decrease in summer rainfall generally along the NSW coast. The development of the database is ongoing but it is planned to extend it back in time to further investigate the relationship between maritime low pressure development and NSW coastal rainfall trends.
Lamb, PJ, Leslie, LM, Timmer, RP & Speer, MS 2009, 'Multidecadal variability of Eastern Australian dust and Northern New Zealand sunshine: Associations with Pacific climate system', JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, vol. 114.View/Download from: Publisher's site
A change from negative to positive circulation anomalies over New South Wales (NSW) during the 1970s resulted in a decrease in east coastal low-pressure systems and accompanying rain. Negative pressure anomalies over eastern Australia, anomalous onshore low-level winds and larger NSW rainfall totals since 1950, occur in the cool phase of the IPO rather than the warm phase (post-1976). Larger NSW extreme annual rainfall totals occurred prior to 1977 and were characterized by negative mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies over eastern Australia. In contrast, extreme annual rainfall totals from 1977 were smaller and characterized by positive MSLP anomalies. © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society.
Choi, H & Speer, MS 2006, 'Effects of atmospheric circulation and boundary layer structure on the dispersion of suspended particulates in the Seoul metropolitan area', Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, vol. 92, no. 3-4, pp. 239-254.View/Download from: Publisher's site
A three-dimensional non-hydrostatic numerical model and lagrangian particle model (random walk model) were used to investigate the effects of the atmospheric circulation and boundary layer structure on the dispersion of suspended particulates in the Seoul metropolitan area. Initially, emitted particulate matter rises from the surface of the city towards the top of the convective boundary layer (CBL), owing to daytime thermal heating of the surface and the combined effect of an onshore wind with a westerly synoptic-scale wind. A reinforcing sea-valley breeze directed from the coast toward the city of Seoul, which is enclosed in a basin and bordered by mountains to its east, disperses the suspended particulate matter toward the eastern mountains. Total suspended particulate concentration (TSP) at ground level in the city is very low and relatively high in the mountains. Radiative cooling of the surface produces a shallow nocturnal surface inversion layer (NSIL) and the suspended particulate matter still present near the top of the CBL from the previous day, sinks to the surface. An easterly downslope mountain wind is directed into the metropolitan area, transporting particulate matter towards the city, thereby recycling the pollutants. The particulates descending from the top of the NSIL and mountains, combine with particulates emitted near the surface over the city at night, and under the shallow NSIL spread out, resulting in a maximum ground level concentration of TSP in the metropolitan area at 2300 LST. As those particles move toward the Yellow Sea through the topographically shaped outlet west of Seoul city under the influence of the easterly land breeze, the maximum TSP concentration occurs at the coastal site. During the following morning, onshore winds resulting from a combined synoptic-scale westerly wind and westerly sea breeze, force particulates dispersed the previous night to move over the adjacent sea and back over the inland metropolitan area. The re...
Choi, H & Speer, MS 2006, 'The influence of synoptic-mesoscale winds and sea surface temperature distribution on fog formation near the Korean western peninsula', Meteorological Applications, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 347-360.View/Download from: Publisher's site
When high pressure is located near the Korean peninsula, a diffluent wind regime generally occurs over the Yellow Sea. At night or early morning, diffluent westerly winds occur on the western side of the Korean peninsula near Inchon city and encounter a combined land breeze and katabatic easterly offshore wind, resulting in conditions ranging from calm to a moderate westerly wind near the coast. Nocturnal radiational cooling of the land surface and the moisture laden westerly winds can cause air near the coast to become saturated, resulting in coastal advection fog. During the day, on the other hand, the synoptic-scale westerly wind is reinforced by a westerly sea breeze and is further reinforced by a westerly valley wind directed upslope towards the mountain top. Even if the resulting intensified onshore wind could transport a large amount of moisture from the sea over the land, it would be very difficult for fog to form because the daytime heat flux from the ground would develop the convective boundary layer inland from Inchon city sufficiently to reduce significantly the moisture content of the air. Therefore, fog does not generally form in situ over the inland coastal basin. When an area of cold sea water (10 °C average) exists approximately 25-50 km offshore and the sea surface temperature increases towards the coast, air parcels over the cool sea surface are cooled sufficiently to saturation, resulting in the formation of advection sea fog. However, at the coast, nocturnal cooling of the ground further cools the advected moist air driven by the westerly wind and causes coastal advection fog to form. © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.
Qi, L, Leslie, LM & Speer, MS 2006, 'Climatology of cyclones over the southwest Pacific: 1992-2001', METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, vol. 91, no. 1-4, pp. 201-209.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Schuster, SS, Blong, RJ & Speer, MS 2005, 'A hail climatology of the greater Sydney area and New South Wales, Australia', International Journal of Climatology, vol. 25, no. 12, pp. 1633-1650.View/Download from: Publisher's site
The first in-depth hail climatology for the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, based on reports of hailstones front 1791 to 2003, is described. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology's severe weather database is extended with a detailed compilation of scientific and newspaper accounts of hail fall for the greater Sydney area for the period 1805 to 1998. Owing to its high exposure to thunderstorm and hail by virtue of population and building density, the greater Sydney area is the focus of the database. Comparisons are drawn between Sydney and the rest of NSW, and between coastal and inland areas of the state. Over the study period, a total of 1570 thunderstorms produced hail. On average, 10 hailstorms per year were recorded in Sydney in the last 50 years. However, there is a statistically significant decrease in the hailstorm frequency during the last 14 years compared with the preceding 36 years. The magnitude of hailstorms, as measured by reports of estimated hailstone size, revealed an average maximum hailstone size per storm that ranged from 3.8 to 4.0 cm for different regions. Hailstorms occur most frequently between October and February (Australian spring and summer) in NSW, with peak activity in November and December. The hail season in Sydney begins 2 months earlier (August to February). However, during the last 14 years there has been a shift to November to March. The majority of NSW hailstorms occur during the late afternoon between 3pm and 7pm, with hailstorms in Sydney occurring about 1 h earlier. The most active hail fall regions are located in the Bureau of Meteorology's northern NSW weather forecast districts of the Northern Tablelands, Northern Rivers and parts of the Northwest Slopes. In Sydney, the most hail-prone suburbs are concentrated over the most densely populated areas and corridors. Copyright ©2005 Royal Meteorological Society.
Leslie, LM & Speer, MS 2004, 'Preliminary modelling results of an urban air quality model verifying the prediction of nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide and ozone over the Sydney basin', METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, vol. 87, no. 1-3, pp. 89-92.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Liu, S, Leslie, LM, Speer, M, Bunker, R & Mo, X 2004, 'The effects of bushfires on hydrological processes using a paired-catchment analysis', METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, vol. 86, no. 1-2, pp. 31-44.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Speer, MS, Leslie, LM, Qi, L & Buckley, BW 2004, 'Urban scale modelling: The Sydney hailstorm of 14 April 1999', METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, vol. 87, no. 1-3, pp. 161-166.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Buckley, BW, Leslie, LM & Speer, MS 2003, 'The impact of observational technology on climate database quality: Tropical cyclones in the Tasman Sea', JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, vol. 16, no. 15, pp. 2640-2645.View/Download from: 2.0.CO;2">Publisher's site
Liu, S, Leslie, L, Speer, M, Bunker, R & Morison, R 2003, 'Approaching realistic soil moisture status with an improved mesoscale numerical weather prediction model', IAHS-AISH Publication, no. 282, pp. 315-320.
An advanced soil moisture scheme (Richards) is coupled to a high resolution numerical weather prediction model (HIRES) replacing the original Force-Restore scheme and changing other related processes. The new scheme now provides HIRES with an upper and lower bound for soil moisture through a process of checking model precipitation that is used to calculate soil moisture. A comparison of HIRES model results is presented using the new and original soil moisture schemes applied to the Goulburn River catchment in southeastern Australia. It is shown that precipitation is the most important factor to be considered before introducing an advanced scheme to correctly simulate soil moisture. It is also shown that, based on the correct precipitation input, the Richards scheme provides a more realistic soil moisture profile. Improving model soil moisture will ultimately provide better estimates of forest fire danger indices used as guidance by weather forecasters in assessing bushfire risk.
Speer, MS, Leslie, LM & Qi, L 2003, 'Numerical prediction of severe convection: comparison with operational forecasts', METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 11-19.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Leslie, LM, Abbey, RF, Speer, MS & Skinner, TCL 2002, 'Intense tropical cyclogenesis over the northwest Australian region in 1998/1999: Causal factors', METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, vol. 80, no. 1-4, pp. 89-101.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Morison, RP, Leslie, LM & Speer, MS 2002, 'Atmospheric modelling of air pollution as a tool for environmental prediction and management', METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, vol. 80, no. 1-4, pp. 141-151.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Speer, MS & Leslie, LM 2002, 'The prediction of two cases of severe convection: implications for forecast guidance', METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, vol. 80, no. 1-4, pp. 165-175.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Leslie, LM & Speer, MS 2001, 'Comments on "Statistical single-station short-term forecasting of temperature and probability of precipitation: Area interpolation and NWP combination"', WEATHER AND FORECASTING, vol. 16, no. 6, pp. 765-767.View/Download from: 2.0.CO;2">Publisher's site
Speer, MS, Leslie, LM, Morison, R, Catchpole, W, Bradstock, R & Bunker, R 2001, 'Modelling fire weather and fire spread rates for two bushfires near Sydney', AUSTRALIAN METEOROLOGICAL MAGAZINE, vol. 50, no. 3, pp. 241-246.
Speer, MS, Leslie, LM, Morison, R, Catchpole, W, Bradstock, R & Bunker, R 2001, 'Shorter contribution modelling fire weather and fire spread rates for two bushfires near Sydney', Australian Meteorological Magazine, vol. 50, no. 3, pp. 241-246.
The observed headflre rates of spread of two severe wildfires in heathlands near Sydney were compared with predictions made using a meteorological model to forecast wind speeds and a new simple empirical fire behaviour model that uses fuel height and wind speed at 2 m above ground to predict rate of spread. The predicted rates of spread, using both actual and predicted wind speeds, compared favourably with observed rates of spread averaged over 2 hours and 5.5 hours for the Bell Range and Royal National Park fires respectively.
Batt, KL, Morison, RP & Speer, MS 2000, 'Direct verification of forecasts from a very high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model', Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, vol. 74, no. 1-4, pp. 117-127.View/Download from: Publisher's site
The University of New South Wales (UNSW) High Resolution numerical weather prediction model (HIRES) is run routinely, on a daily basis, at a horizontal resolution of 25 km. The output is made available to the New South Wales (NSW) regional office of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in Sydney. HIRES has been used to forecast mean wind direction and speed at a height of 12 metres for a number of events in the past. The opportunity was used in December 1997 to run the model for the annual Sydney to Hobart yacht race area. For the 1997 Sydney to Hobart yacht race the model was run at 25km horizontal resolution and the output was made available to all competitors on the morning of the race, namely December 26th. It was also decided by the authors to expand the verification to include all observations available both from land and sea within the model domain an well as those available from a moving single point at sea, namely a yacht. After the event, the model was run once at the increased resolution of 10 km, out to 5 days ahead. Both model runs were subjected to detailed verification by one of the authors (KLB) who participated in the race aboard the maxi-yacht Nicorette and who carried out a pre-arranged observational program during the race. Surface synoptic weather maps prepared in the NSW office of the Bureau of Meteorology were also consulted in order to extend the verification scheme. The model predicted winds were verified on a six-hourly basis utilising instrumentation on the yacht as well as surface observations plotted in standard World Meterological Organisation (WMO) format on surface synoptic weather maps. The yacht carried wind sensors situated on top of the mast at a height of 30 metres above the water. The authors were most interested in the accuracy of the wind velocity forecast by the model. It is important to note that forecasting for points over the ocean at widely separated time intervals represents a very difficult challenge. The verificatio...
Speer, MS & Leslie, LM 2000, 'A comparison of five flood rain events over the New South Wales north coast and a case study', INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, vol. 20, no. 5, pp. 543-563.View/Download from: 3.3.CO;2-3">Publisher's site
Speer, MS & Leslie, LM 2000, 'Mesoscale model forecasting as a tool for air pollution management: a case study of sustained smoke pollution over the Greater Sydney area', METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 177-186.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Smoke pollution from controlled burning of forested areas can be a major problem for populated areas, even those at some distance from the site of the burning. In particular, Perth, the largest city in Western Australia, is affected by smoke from controlled forest burns to the south of the city when meteorological conditions advect smoke over the city. Such controlled burns are extensively carried out on an annual basis in spring, early summer and late autumn by the Western Australian Department of Conservation and Land Management (CALM) in the southwest forests, in order to reduce flammable fuels and mitigate the undesirable social, economic, environmental and human problems caused by destructive wildfires. In this article, results are presented from a mesoscale model prediction of smoke trajectories from a controlled burn event that took place in November, 1995. In this example, two meteorological factors, a strong sea-breeze front and a mesoscale low pressure system, unexpectedly turned the smoke back from its initial trajectory over the ocean to directly over Perth itself. The result was very high smoke concentration levels over the city and associated health concerns to residents as well as disruption to transport including the closing of Perth airport. The mesoscale guidance was very accurate and can provide valuable guidance when run routinely.
Leslie, LM & Speer, MS 1998, 'Comments on "Short-Range ensemble forecasting of explosive Australian east coast cyclogenesis" Reply', WEATHER AND FORECASTING, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 1208-1209.View/Download from: 2.0.CO;2">Publisher's site
Leslie, LM & Speer, MS 1998, 'Short-range ensemble forecasting of explosive Australian east coast cyclogenesis', WEATHER AND FORECASTING, vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 822-832.View/Download from: 2.0.CO;2">Publisher's site
Speer, MS & Leslie, LM 1998, 'Numerical simulation of two heavy rainfall events over coastal southeastern Australia', Meteorological Applications, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 239-252.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Predicting rainfall along the New South Wales (NSW) coast is a major forecasting problem because of sharp gradients in rainfall amounts with the heaviest falls on the coastal fringe decreasing rapidly inland. On some occasions the rainfall pattern is less spatially coherent and consists of isolated maxima. Both rainfall patterns are associated with mesoscale coastal ridging. The first rainfall pattern arises from coastal ridging occurring in combination with an offshore trough. In the first case study presented here, a typical ridge-trough system was aligned parallel to the coast, and located just offshore, with the observed rainfall heaviest at the coast, decreasing rapidly from over 60 mm to near zero 30 km inland. The model captured well the southward temporal evolution of the maximum relative humidity values and rainfall. The second rainfall pattern occurs when shallow coastal ridging interacts with downdrafts from thunderstorm activity over the ranges to the west. The second case study was one in which convergence and condensation generated a quasi-stationary line of thunderstorms, resulting in flash flooding. The model precipitation rates and accumulations matched very closely those of the squall line, as revealed by radar precipitation intensities and the observed rainfall.
Speer, MS, Leslie, LM, Colquhoun, JR & Mitchell, E 1996, 'The Sydney Australia wildfires of January 1994 - Meteorological conditions and high resolution numerical modeling experiments', INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE, vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 145-154.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Speer, M & Geerts, B 1994, 'A synoptic-mesoalpha-scale climatology of flash-floods in the Sydney metropolitan area', Australian Meteorological Magazine, vol. 43, no. 2, pp. 87-103.
Flash-floods essentially occur with four types of synoptic flow: easterly troughs, lows, pre-frontal flow and post-frontal flow. The first two, which are subtropical excursions, are responsible for the bulk of Sydney's rain and dominate the numbers of flash-floods. They exhibit weak diurnal and seasonal modulation with preference towards the warmer months. These systems typically have little convective available potential energy (CAPE)(~1000 J/kg), but also have little convective inhibition. The other two types occur in association with the northerly margin of extratropical fronts. They exhibit strong diurnal and seasonal modulation with preference towards the warmer months. -from Authors
Choi, H & Speer, MS 2007, 'Influences of secondary chemical gas processes on PM1, PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations over the Korean Coast' in Advances in Geosciences: Volume 9: Solid Earth (SE), Ocean Science (OS) and Atmospheric Science (AS), pp. 209-224.View/Download from: Publisher's site
© world scientific publishing company. An aerosol sampler was installed at Kangnung city in the east coast of Korea to measure mass concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, and PM1 covering particle diameter sizes ranging from 300 ηm to 20µm from February 14 to 16, 2005. The concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, and PM1 showed a high morning (09:00 LST) and afternoon (17:00 LST) concentration and a low concentration around midday (12:00 LST). First maximum concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, and PM1 occurred at 20:00 LST. Secondary maximum concentrations were detected at 01:00 LST, February 15. The distribution of CO and NOx concentrations showed a similar diurnal distribution to those of PM10, PM2.5, and PM1, except for the morning of February 14. The first and secondary maximum concentrations of NOx occurred at the same times as those of PM10, PM2.5, and PM1. This implies that the increase in NOx and CO emissions from road vehicles and combustion gases from boilers in residential areas can contribute substantially to the increase in PM concentration. As a result of a typical daytime westerly wind regime over Korea, the rotor action of a lee-side easterly breeze transports PM from Kangnung toward the mountains, which is then recycled toward Kangnung in the westerly airflow at night. Some PM from Wonju city upwind on the western side can also contribute significantly to the secondary maximum at Kangnang city on the eastern or lee side.
Speer, MS & Leslie, LM 2006, 'Local to long-range dust transport over Central Eastern Australia' in Advances in Geosciences: Volume 5: Oceans and Atmospheres (OA), pp. 29-40.View/Download from: Publisher's site
© 2006 by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. All rights reserved. A climatology of dust reporting days from 1995 to February 2004 has been prepared for the central eastern Australia region. The climatology reveals a total of 55 "dust days," consisting of 43 dust days associated with fronts. Of these 24 were classified as being embedded in the zonal westerlies in the Great Australian Bight (GAB) or in westerlies produced by from low-pressure systems in the GAB. The remaining 19 were associated with fronts over eastern Australia where high pressure systems in the GAB generated postfrontal south to southeast winds. Two case studies of dust storm generation and transport were modeled using an integrated wind erosion prediction system. The model predictions were broadly consistent with both satellite images highlighting dust and with the synoptic observations that reported dust.
Leslie, LM, LeMarshall, J, Speer, MS & Abbey, RF 2002, 'The Australian east coast sub-tropical storm of March 8-9, 2001: Synoptic analysis and data assimilation experiments at landfall', SYMPOSIUM ON OBSERVATIONS, DATA ASSIMILATION, AND PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION, Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, ORLANDO, FL, pp. 5-5.
Abbey, RF, Leslie, LM, Speer, MS & Qi, L 2001, 'Prediction of extreme precipitation associated with landfalling tropical cyclones', SYMPOSIUM ON PRECIPITATION EXTREMES: PREDICTION, IMPACTS, AND RESPONSES, Symposium on Precipitation Extremes - Prediction, Impacts and Responses, AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, ALBUQUERQUE, NM, pp. 330-331.
Speer, MS & Leslie, LM 2001, 'Quantitative precipitation forecasting of extreme synoptic-mesoscale events', SYMPOSIUM ON PRECIPITATION EXTREMES: PREDICTION, IMPACTS, AND RESPONSES, Symposium on Precipitation Extremes - Prediction, Impacts and Responses, AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, ALBUQUERQUE, NM, pp. 264-265.
Leslie, LM & Speer, MS 2000, 'Tropical cyclone track forecasting using data assimilation of high resolution satellite derived winds', 24TH CONFERENCE ON HURRICANES AND TROPICAL METEOROLOGY/10TH CONFERENCE ON INTERACTION OF THE SEA AND ATMOSPHERE, 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology/10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere, AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, FT LAUDERDALE, FL, pp. 120-121.
Leslie, LM, Speer, MS & Bunker, R 2000, 'Very high resolution model forecasts of fire weather for the January 1994 fires', THIRD SYMPOSIUM ON FIRE AND FOREST METEOROLOGY, 3rd Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, LONG BEACH, CA, pp. 68-69.
Speer, MS, Leslie, LM, Catchpole, W, Bradstock, R & Bunker, R 2000, 'Model predicted spread rates for the Sydney January 1994 fires', THIRD SYMPOSIUM ON FIRE AND FOREST METEOROLOGY, 3rd Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, LONG BEACH, CA, pp. 114-115.
Speer, MS & Leslie, LM 1998, 'Quantitative precipitation forecasting for an extreme mesoscale flash flood event', 16TH CONFERENCE ON WEATHER ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING / SYMPOSIUM ON THE RESEARCH FOCI OF THE U.S. WEATHER RESEARCH PROGRAM, 16th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / Symposium on the Research Foci of the US Weather Research Program, AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, PHOENIX, AZ, pp. 144-144.