Can supervise: YES
Baddeley, M 2018, Copycats and contrarians: Why we follow others... and when we don't.
© 2018 Michelle Baddeley. All rights reserved. Rioting teenagers, tumbling stock markets, and the spread of religious terrorism appear to have little in common, but all are driven by the same basic instincts: the tendency to herd, follow, and imitate others. In today's interconnected world, group choices all too often seem maladaptive. With unprecedented speed, information flashes across the globe and drives rapid shifts in group opinion. Adverse results can include speculative economic bubbles, irrational denigration of scientists and other experts, seismic political reversals, and more. Drawing on insights from across the social, behavioral, and natural sciences, Michelle Baddeley explores contexts in which behavior is driven by the herd. She analyzes the rational vs. nonrational and cognitive vs. emotional forces involved, and she investigates why herding only sometimes works out well. With new perspectives on followers, leaders, and the pros and cons of herd behavior, Baddeley shines vivid light on human behavior in the context of our ever-more-connected world.
© 2013 Michelle Baddeley. Standard models in economics and finance usually assume that people are rational, self-interested maximisers, effectively co-ordinated via the invisible hand of the price mechanism. Whilst these approaches produce tractable, simple models, they cannot fully capture the uncertainties and instabilities that affect everyday choices in today's complex world. Insights from the other social and behavioural sciences can help to fill the gap and behavioural economics is the subject which brings economics and finance together with psychology, neuroscience and sociology. Behavioural Economics and Finance introduces the reader to some of the key concepts and insights from this rich, inter-disciplinary approach to real-world decision-making.
© M.C. Baddeley and D. V. Barrowclough 2009. Running Regressions introduces first-year social science undergraduates, particularly those studying economics and business, to the practical aspects of simple regression analysis, without adopting an esoteric, mathematical approach. It shows that statistical analysis can be simultaneously straightforward, useful and interesting, and can deal with topical, real-world issues. Each chapter introduces an economic theory or idea by relating it to an issue of topical interest, and explains how data and econometric analysis can be used to test it. The book can be used as a self-standing text or to supplement conventional econometric texts. It is also ideally suited as a guide to essays and project work.
Arestis, P, Baddeley, M & McCombie, JSL 2007, Economic growth: New directions in theory and policy.
This enlightening and significant new volume focuses on the nature, causes and features of economic growth across a wide range of countries and regions. Covering a variety of growth related topics - from theoretical analyses of economic growth in general to empirical analyses of growth in the OECD, transition economies and developing economies - the distinguished cast of contributors address some of the most important contemporary issues and developments in the field. © Philip Arestis, Michelle Baddeley and John S.L. McCombie 2007. All rights reserved.
Arestis, P, Baddeley, M & McCombie, J 2005, The New Monetary Policy: Implications and Relevance.
'. . . this book provides a useful overview of the challenges facing the IT policy framework, both by pointing to the limitations of the underlying theory and, more importantly, by outlining the importance of a transparent policy framework for anchoring expectations. . . the book should be of interest to all central bankers and students of monetary policy.' © Philip Arestis, Michelle Baddeley and John McCombie 2005. All rights reserved.
Rocha, M, Baddeley, M, Pollitt, M & Weeks, M 2019, 'Addressing self-disconnection among prepayment energy consumers: A behavioural approach', ENERGY ECONOMICS, vol. 81, pp. 273-286.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Burke, CJ, Baddeley, M, Toblers, PN & Schultz, W 2016, 'Partial Adaptation of Obtained and Observed Value Signals Preserves Information about Gains and Losses', JOURNAL OF NEUROSCIENCE, vol. 36, no. 39, pp. 10016-10025.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Collins, CD, Baddeley, M, Clare, G, Murphy, R, Owens, S & Rocks, S 2016, 'Considering evidence: The approach taken by the Hazardous Substances Advisory Committee in the UK', ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL, vol. 92-93, pp. 565-568.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Baddeley, M 2014, 'Rethinking the micro-foundations of macroeconomics: Insights from behavioural economics', European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 99-112.View/Download from: Publisher's site
© 2014 Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, macroeconomics is at a crossroads: On the one hand, the analytically rigorous, assumption-based approaches based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models lack intuitive plausibility and predictive power; on the other hand, alternative models lack an underlying analytical core. Behavioural economics offers a potential solution if it can unify intuition and analytical rigour. The aim of this paper is to assess the extent to which macroeconomics can embed behavioural and psychological insights from behavioural microeconomic analysis in order to build a rigorous and intuitively plausible understanding of how economic systems, including the macroeconomy and the financial system, work.
This paper analyzes the impact of social influences on opinion formation among academics and other experts. Some social influences are valuable - for example, replicating results is a valuable aspect of scientific research and if a hypothesis has genuinely been verified across a range of different studies, then that may be because it is more probable. In uncertain situations, however, people employ heuristics and rules of thumb to guide their interpretation of events, and this can create problems of cognitive bias, including group biases when beliefs tend to coincide with the prior opinions of others, thus creating herding and path dependency. This tendency to follow others may be magnified by other social influences including reputation-building and conformity preference. Insights about herding and social influence are used to build a model of relative rewards to consensus versus contrarianism. This paper concludes with an analysis of implications and policies designed to moderate the negative herding externalities. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.
Henrard, K 2013, 'Introduction', INTERRELATION BETWEEN THE RIGHT TO IDENTITY OF MINORITIES AND THEIR SOCIO-ECONOMIC PARTICIPATION, vol. 6, pp. 1-17.
Morgera, E, Buck, M & Tsioumani, E 2013, 'Introduction', 2010 NAGOYA PROTOCOL ON ACCESS AND BENEFIT-SHARING IN PERSPECTIVE: IMPLICATIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL LAW AND IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES, vol. 1, pp. 1-+.
Baddeley, M & Parkinson, S 2012, 'Group decision-making: An economic analysis of social influence and individual difference in experimental juries', JOURNAL OF SOCIO-ECONOMICS, vol. 41, no. 5, pp. 558-573.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Baddeley, M 2010, 'Herding, social influence and economic decision-making: socio-psychological and neuroscientific analyses', PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, vol. 365, no. 1538, pp. 281-290.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Burke, CJ, Tobler, PN, Baddeley, M & Schultz, W 2010, 'Neural mechanisms of observational learning', PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, vol. 107, no. 32, pp. 14431-14436.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Burke, CJ, Tobler, PN, Schultz, W & Baddeley, M 2010, 'Striatal BOLD response reflects the impact of herd information on financial decisions', Frontiers in Human Neuroscience, vol. 4.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Like other species, humans are sensitive to the decisions and actions of conspecifics, which can lead to herd behavior and undesirable outcomes such as stock market bubbles and bank runs. However, how the brain processes this socially derived influence is only poorly understood. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we scanned participants as they made decisions on whether to buy stocks after observing others' buying decisions. We demonstrate that activity in the ventral striatum, an area heavily implicated in reward processing, tracked the degree of influence on participants' decisions arising from the observation of other peoples' decisions. The signal did not track non-human, non-social control decisions. These findings lend weight to the notion that the ventral striatum is involved in the processing of complex social aspects of decision making and identify a possible neural basis for herd behavior. © 2010 Burke, Tobler, Schultz and Baddeley.
Burke, CJ, Tobler, PN, Schultz, W & Baddeley, M 2010, 'Striatal BOLD response reflects the impact of herd information on financial decisions', FRONTIERS IN HUMAN NEUROSCIENCE, vol. 4.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Baddeley, MC 2008, 'Structural shifts in UK unemployment 1979-2005: The twin impacts of financial deregulation and computerization', BULLETIN OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, vol. 60, no. 2, pp. 123-157.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Arestis, P, Baddeley, M & Sawyer, M 2007, 'The relationship between capital stock, unemployment and wages in nine EMU countries', Bulletin of Economic Research, vol. 59, no. 2, pp. 125-148.View/Download from: Publisher's site
The focus of this paper is to investigate the importance of the capital stock in the determination of wages and unemployment in a range of EMU countries and to compare the results across countries. A time-series analysis is conducted in the case of nine euro area countries, which were selected solely on the basis of data availability and consistency: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, the Netherlands and Spain. The paper begins with a short review of the literature on capital stock and unemployment, before it deals with the theoretical model. This is followed by estimation and testing of the theoretical model put forward, using both time-series and panel data. The results are supportive of the main hypothesis of the paper: capital stock is an important determinant of unemployment and wages in the countries considered for the purposes of the paper. © 2007 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Board of Trustees of the Bulletin of Economic Research.
Arestis, P, Baddeley, M, McCombie, J & Avendano Vargas, BL 2007, 'The new monetary policy', INVESTIGACION ECONOMICA, vol. 66, no. 261, pp. 147-154.
Baddeley, M 2006, 'Convergence or divergence? The impacts of globalisation on growth and inequality in less developed countries', International Review of Applied Economics, vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 391-410.View/Download from: Publisher's site
This paper assesses the impacts of globalisation on the cross-country comparative patterns of growth and development. In the theoretical section, some of the key linkages between growth, development and globalisation are explored including the positive and negative impacts of globalisation and the constraints on effective development in a globalised world. Some of the key factors emphasised include trade and capital flows as well as computerisation. These issues are then analysed empirically using If and club convergence models, estimated using panel techniques. The empirical evidence presented indicates that globalisation has been associated with increasing trade and financial flows to less developed countries. It has also coincided with increasing penetration of the Internet suggesting that increases in informational flows have complemented economic and financial linkages, but the empirical evidence also shows that the current era of globalisation has not been associated with convergence in economic outcomes; instead less-developed countries have suffered from increases in international income inequality. In the final section, conclusions and policy implications are presented including a discussion of how international and national development policies could be designed properly to ameliorate tendencies towards growing international disparities in economic growth.
Baddeley, M, McNay, K & Cassen, R 2006, 'Divergence in India: Income differentials at the state level, 1970-97', JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES, vol. 42, no. 6, pp. 1000-1022.View/Download from: Publisher's site
This paper assesses business investment appraisal techniques and expectations formation. The paper begins with a comparative analysis of the links between fixed asset investment theories and real world investment appraisal techniques, focusing on the underlying assumptions about rationality and expectations. In the empirical sections, these ideas are tested via an analysis of business behaviour based upon survey evidence from a sample of Cambridgeshire manufacturing firms. The statistical analysis focuses on hypothesis testing, ordered probit estimations and simulations. The evidence presented reveals that whilst conventional production function analysis does provide some explanatory power in describing the objective determinants of firm investment activity, subjective and behavioural factors are also important. © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2006.
Baddeley, MC 2004, 'Are tourists willing to pay for aesthetic quality? An empirical assessment from Krabi Province, Thailand', Tourism Economics, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 45-61.View/Download from: Publisher's site
This paper assesses the relationships between the viability of the tourism industry and willingness to pay for aesthetic aspects of environmental quality. Incentives to provide high-quality tourism are limited given asymmetric information, adverse selection and positive search costs, with implications both for the sustainability of the tourism industry and for environmental sustainability more broadly defined. An econometric model is estimated in which willingness to pay is captured using resort rents and related to aesthetic quality, after controlling for service levels. A negative relationship is found. Some policy issues are assessed, focusing on the implications for tourism as an engine for sustainable development.
Baddeley, MC, Curtis, A & Wood, R 2004, 'An introduction to prior information derived from probabilistic judgements: Elicitation of knowledge, cognitive bias and herding', Geological Society Special Publication, vol. 239, pp. 15-27.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Opinion of geological experts is often formed despite a paucity of data and is usually based on prior experience. In such situations humans employ heuristics (rules of thumb) to aid analysis and interpretation of data. As a result, future judgements are bootstrapped from, and hence biased by, both the heuristics employed and prior opinion. This paper r eviews the causes of bias and error inherent in prior information derived from the probabilistic judgements of people. Parallels are developed between the evolution of scientific opinion on one hand and the limits on rational behaviour on the other. We show that the combination of data paucity and commonly employed heuristics can lead to herding behaviour within groups of experts. Elicitation theory mitigates the effects of such behaviour, but a method to estimate reliable uncertainties on expert judgements remains elusive. We have al so identified several key directions in which future research is likely to lead to methods that reduce such emergent group behaviour, thereby increasing the probability that the stock of common knowledge will converge in a stable manner towards facts about the Earth as it really is. These include: (1) measuring the frequency with which different heuristics tend to be employed by experts within the geosciences; (2) developing geoscience-specific methods to reduce biases originating from the use of such heuristics; (3) creating methods to detect scientific herding behaviour; and (4) researching how best to reconcile opinions from multiple experts in order to obtain the best probabilistic description of an unknown, objective reality (in cases where one exists). © The Geological Society of London.
Baddeley, M, Martin, R & Tyler, P 2000, 'Regional wage rigidity: The European Union and United States compared', JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, vol. 40, no. 1, pp. 115-141.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Baddeley, M, Martin, R & Tyler, P 1998, 'European regional unemployment disparities: Convergence or persistence?', EUROPEAN URBAN AND REGIONAL STUDIES, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 195-215.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Baddeley, M, Martin, R & Tyler, P 1998, 'Transitory shock or structural shift? The impact of the early 1980s recession on British regional unemployment', APPLIED ECONOMICS, vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 19-30.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Baddeley, M, 'Behavioural Macroeconomic Policy: New perspectives on time inconsistency'.
This paper brings together divergent approaches to time inconsistency from
macroeconomic policy and behavioural economics. Behavioural discount functions
from behavioural microeconomics are embedded into a game-theoretic analysis of
temptation versus enforcement to construct an encompassing model, nesting
combinations of time consistent and time inconsistent preferences. The analysis
presented in this paper shows that, with hyperbolic/quasihyperbolic
discounting, the enforceable range of inflation targets is narrowed. This
suggests limits to the effectiveness of monetary targets, under certain
conditions. The paper concludes with a discussion of monetary policy
implications, explored specifically in the light of current macroeconomic
Baddeley, M 2018, 'Financial instability and speculative bubbles: Behavioural insights and policy implications' in Alternative Approaches in Macroeconomics: Essays in Honour of John McCombie, pp. 209-234.View/Download from: Publisher's site
© The Author(s) 2018. Michelle Baddeley in this chapter entitled, 'Financial Instability and Speculative Bubbles: Behavioural Insights and Policy Implications', draws on themes from Baddeley and McCombie's (An historical perspective on speculative bubbles and financial crises: Tulipmania and the South Sea bubble. In: Arestis P, Baddeley M, McCombie JSL (eds) What global economic crisis? Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, 2001) exploration of speculative bubbles, which applied different models of speculation to analysing famous historical speculative episodes, specifically Tulipmania and the South Sea Bubble. This chapter re-assesses these insights in the light of all that has happened during the US sub-prime mortgage crisis and subsequent global financial crises of 2007/2008. It also extends the analysis to include new insights from behavioural finance about the nature and causes of speculative bubbles, blending insights from behavioural finance and post-Keynesian economics. Speculative bubbles throughout history have a number of common, predictable features so why have we not learnt more from these past experiences? In answering these questions, this chapter concludes with an analysis of policy implications-including fiscal and monetary measures that could be implemented to minimise the destabilising real-side impacts from speculative bubbles and the financial shocks and crises which often follow.
Baddeley, M 2017, 'Investment, Unemployment and the Cyber Revolution' in Economic Policies since the Global Financial Crisis, Springer International Publishing, pp. 173-220.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Baddeley, M 2015, 'Behavioral approaches to managing household energy consumption' in New Perspectives for Environmental Policies Through Behavioral Economics, pp. 213-235.View/Download from: Publisher's site
© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016. All rights are reserved. This chapter explores behavioral insights relevant to designing policies to promote efficient household energy consumption. Standard economic approaches to managing household energy efficiency tend to focus on price factors and demand management. While there is some evidence that these methods are partially effective, they are an incomplete solution. Blending conventional economic policies with policy insights from behavioral economics can enable a more holistic approach to energy policy design and behavior change. Behavioral economics does not depend on strict rationality assumptions and allows that ordinary households are affected by various forms of behavioral bias and social influence. Understanding the range of behavioral drivers and constraints affecting household energy decisions-including social influences; heuristics, bias and folk wisdom; procrastination and self-control problems will facilitate the development of a more nuanced and comprehensive set of policy tools to encourage households' efficient management of fuel consumption.
Baddeley, M 2015, 'Financing Energy Infrastructure', PALGRAVE, pp. 111-152.
Baddeley, M 2014, 'Bubbles or whirlpools? An empirical analysis of the effects of speculation and financial uncertainty on investment' in Empirical Post Keynesian Economics: Looking at the Real World, pp. 202-236.View/Download from: Publisher's site
© 2007 Taylor & Francis. Investment plays a central role in the determination of employment and growth, but it is sensitive to uncertainty within the macroeconomy. Until the 1980s, orthodox economic analyses of investment neglected the role of uncertainty and the dominant economic paradigms of neoclassical theory were based upon concepts of rational expectations and efficient markets. These allow for quantifiable risk but do not emphasize sufficiently the impacts of fundamental uncertainty on fixedasset investment. In contrast, during this period of time much of the heterodox Post Keynesian literature, particularly ideas developed within Kaleckian and Minskian traditions, placed great emphasis not only on the role played by uncertainty in the macro-economy, but also by the interactions between uncertainty and financial instability and crisis.
Arestis, P, Baddeley, M & Sawyer, M 2006, 'Is capital stock a determinant of unemployment?' in Wages, Employment, Distribution and Growth: International Perspectives, pp. 19-66.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Baddeley, M & Fontana, G 2005, 'Monetary policy in the informationeconomy: Old problems and newchallenges' in The New Monetary Policy: Implications and Relevance, pp. 111-128.
Sombatruang, N, Onwuzurike, L, Sasse, MA & Baddeley, M 2019, 'Factors influencing users to use unsecured wi-fi networks: Evidence in the wild', WiSec 2019 - Proceedings of the 2019 Conference on Security and Privacy in Wireless and Mobile Networks, Conference on Security and Privacy in Wireless and Mobile Networks, ACM, Miami, USA, pp. 203-213.View/Download from: Publisher's site
© 2019 Association for Computing Machinery. Security experts often question why some users take actions that could expose them to security and privacy risks. Using unsecured Wi-Fi networks is one common example. Even though mobile data is now a more secure means to connect to the Internet, and is becoming faster and more affordable, many users continue to use unsecured Wi-Fi. To identify risk mitigating strategies, the research community first needs to understand the underlying factors driving users' decisions. Previous studies examined stated preferences - what people said they have done or think they would do - but that may not truly reflect real-life behavior. This study is the first to examine revealed preferences - what people actually do in naturalistic settings. Specifically, we investigated how users' desire to save mobile data and battery power influenced their decisions at the time when they connected to open unsecured Wi-Fi in the wild. We also examined whether the decision to use unsecured Wi-Fi networks could be driven by demographic factors and the user's perception of the risk associated with using these networks. We recruited 71 participants in the UK to install My Wi-Fi Choices, our own Android app, on their mobile device, and run it for three months in the background. The app captured details of mobile data allowance and battery power on participants' devices whenever they used open unsecured Wi-Fi networks.We found that depleting mobile data significantly drove participants to use these networks, especially when their remaining allowance reached approximately 30%. Battery level, however, did not play a significant role. The perceived risks of unsecured Wi-Fi did not affect the decision-making either. Age, education, and income level were also correlated with increased use of unsecured Wi-Fi.
Mason, S, Kuan, W-L, Baddeley, M & Barker, R 1970, 'FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY IN HUNTINGTON'S DISEASE', JOURNAL OF NEUROLOGY NEUROSURGERY AND PSYCHIATRY, Plenary Meeting of the European-Huntington's-Disease-Network (EHDN), BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, Vienna, AUSTRIA, pp. A49-A49.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Mason, S, Kuan, W-L, Barker, R & Baddeley, M 2018, 'Factors That Influence Financial Decision Making in Huntington's Disease', NEUROTHERAPEUTICS, SPRINGER, pp. 253-253.
Sombatruang, N, Kadobayashi, Y, Sasse, MA, Baddeley, M & Miyamoto, D 2018, 'The continued risks of unsecured public Wi-Fi and why users keep using it: Evidence from Japan', 2018 16TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE ON PRIVACY, SECURITY AND TRUST (PST), 16th Annual Conference on Privacy, Security and Trust (PST), IEEE, Belfast, NORTH IRELAND, pp. 358-+.
Sombatruang, N, Sasse, MA & Baddeley, M 2016, 'Why do people use unsecure public Wi-Fi? An investigation of behaviour and factors driving decisions', 6TH WORKSHOP ON SOCIO-TECHNICAL ASPECTS IN SECURITY AND TRUST (STAST 2016), 6th Workshop on Socio-Technical Aspects in Security and Trust (STAST), ASSOC COMPUTING MACHINERY, Los Angeles, CA, pp. 61-72.View/Download from: Publisher's site