Lionel joined the Economics Discipline Group in January 2019. He has received his PhD in economics from the Paris School of Economics in 2007.
Lionel possesses research skills from different fields including Econometrics, Decision Theory, Sociology and Behavioral Economics and applies them to practical problems from areas of financial and prediction markets, education and inequality. His research regularly attracts the attention of media, including The New York Times, Financial Times, Sydney Morning Herald, Australian Financial Review, and Wall Street Journal. Lionel has attracted more than AUD$3 million of competitive research funding in his career, including an ARC DECRA and two ARC Discovery grants.
- Coordinating editor: Theory and Decision
- Associate editor: Behavioural Public Policy
- Executive Committee: Economic Society of Australia, 2017 –
Research interests Study of individual and group behaviour.
- Choice under risk and uncertainty
- Behaviour in contests
- Political choices
- Social preferences
- Educational choices
We aim to test the hypothesis that overconfidence arises as a strategy to influence others in social interactions. To address this question, we design an experiment in which participants are incentivized either to form accurate beliefs about their performance at a test, or to convince a group of other participants that they performed well. We also vary participants’ ability to gather information about their performance. Our results show that participants are more likely to (1) overestimate their performance when they anticipate that they will try to persuade others and (2) bias their information search in a manner conducive to receiving more positive feedback, when given the chance to do so. In addition, we also find suggestive evidence that this increase in confidence has a positive effect on participants’ persuasiveness.
Zhou, F, Zheng, Z, Whitehead, J, Washington, S, Perrons, RK & Page, L 2020, 'Preference heterogeneity in mode choice for car-sharing and shared automated vehicles', Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, vol. 132, pp. 633-650.View/Download from: Publisher's site
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd Membership-based short-term car rental–more popularly referred to in the marketplace and popular media as “car-sharing”–has been expanding rapidly worldwide. The advent of self-driving vehicles is likely to facilitate the growth of car-sharing by addressing a couple of the current barriers, including limited dedicated parking and non-competitive access times. Despite the growing importance of this topic, however, the patterns emerging in the market penetration of automated vehicles in car-sharing programs have not received much attention in the literature because of the relative newness of the automated vehicle technologies enabling them. Towards addressing this research gap in this increasingly important area, this paper presents the results of an Australian survey with a focus on consumer preferences towards car-sharing. A stated preference (SP) methodology was adopted to elicit consumers’ valuation of specified mode-choice related factors. In particular, vehicle self-driving capability, a factor rarely examined in the literature, was provided as an option to participants in the SP survey. To increase the realness of the experiment, SP tasks were pivoted from respondents’ most recent trips. The travel preferences data were analyzed using a random parameter (mixed) logit model. To explore preference heterogeneity, socio-demographic and other factors were interacted with alternative-specific attributes, and their influences on marginal utilities were extracted using simulation analysis. Preference heterogeneity across individuals towards shared automated vehicles (SAVs) was identified. Consistent with the literature, consumers’ experience of using car-sharing appears to have significant influence on household mode choices, increasing the probability of using a diversified mode tools (e.g., TWS and Taxi) and decreasing the likelihood of choosing to use privately owned travel tools, such as private car. Although it has been argued in the literat...
Collins, J & Page, L 2019, 'The heritability of fertility makes world population stabilization unlikely in the foreseeable future', Evolution and Human Behavior, vol. 40, no. 1, pp. 105-111.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
© 2018 Elsevier Inc. The forecasting of the future growth of world population is of critical importance to anticipate and address a wide range of global challenges. The United Nations produces forecasts of fertility and world population every two years. As part of these forecasts, they model fertility levels in post-demographic transition countries as tending toward a long-term mean, leading to forecasts of flat or declining population in these countries. We substitute this assumption of constant long-term fertility with a dynamic model, theoretically founded in evolutionary biology, with heritable fertility. Rather than stabilizing around a long-term level for post-demographic transition countries, fertility tends to increase as children from larger families represent a larger share of the population and partly share their parents’ trait of having more offspring. Our results suggest that world population will grow larger in the future than currently anticipated.
Gauriot, R & Page, L 2019, 'Fooled by Performance Randomness: Over-Rewarding Luck', The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 101, no. 4, pp. 658-666.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
We provide evidence of a violation of the informativeness principle whereby lucky successes are overly rewarded. We isolate a quasi-experimental situation where the success of an agent is as good as random. To do so, we use high quality data on football (soccer) matches and select shots on goal which landed on the goal posts. Using non scoring shots, taken from a similar location on the pitch, as counterfactuals to scoring shots, we estimate the causal effect of a lucky success (goal) on the evaluation of the player’s performance. We find clear evidence that luck is overly influencing managers’ decisions and evaluators’ ratings. Our results suggest that this phenomenon is likely to be widespread in economic organizations.
Page, L & Gauriot, R 2019, 'Does success breed success? A quasi-experiment on strategic momentum in dynamic contests', The Economic Journal, vol. 129, no. 624, pp. 3107-3136.View/Download from: Publisher's site
We study how agents adapt their behaviour to variations of incentives in dynamic contests. We investigate a real dynamic contest with large stakes: professional tennis matches. Situations in which balls bounce very close to the court’s lines are used as the setting of a quasi-experiment providing random variations in winning probability. We find evidence of a momentum effect for men whereby winning a point has a positive causal impact on the probability to win the next one. This behaviour is compatible with a reaction to the asymmetry of incentives between leaders and followers. We do not find momentum for women.
Page, L, Sarkar, D & Silva-Goncalves, J 2019, 'Long-lasting effects of relative age at school', Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, vol. 168, pp. 166-195.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
We investigate the long-lasting effects on behaviour of relative age at school. We conduct an online incentivised survey with a sample of 1007 adults, who were born at most two months before or after the school entry cut-off date in four Australian states. We find those who were among the oldest in the classroom throughout their school years display higher self-confidence, are more willing to enter in some form of competition and declare taking more risk in a range of domains in their life, compared to those who were among the youngest.
Zhou, F, Page, L, Perrons, RK, Zheng, Z & Washington, S 2019, 'Long-term forecasts for energy commodities price: What the experts think', Energy Economics, vol. 84.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
The ability to forecast energy prices in the long-term is important for a wide range of reasons, from the formulation of countries' energy and transportation policies to the defensive strategies of nations to investment decisions within the private sector. Despite the importance of these predictions, however, forecasters and market pundits face a difficult challenge when trying to forecast over the long-term. While statistical models can credibly rely on assumptions about the relationship between variables in the short-term, they are frequently less reliable in the long-term as political and technological transformations profoundly change how the economy works over time. Towards improving long-term predictions for energy commodities, this paper uses the elicitation and aggregation of experts' beliefs to put forward forecasts for crude oil and natural gas prices by incentivizing experts to tell the truth and minimising their own biases through the application of the Bayesian Truth Serum. With this approach, we generated both short-term and long-term forecasts, and used the short-term forecast to validate the quality of the experts' predictions.
Engler, Y, Kerschbamer, R & Page, L 2018, 'Guilt averse or reciprocal? Looking at behavioral motivations in the trust game', Journal of the Economic Science Association, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 1-14.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
For the trust game, recent models of belief-dependent motivations make
opposite predictions regarding the correlation between back transfers and secondorder beliefs of the trustor: while reciprocity models predict a negative correlation, guilt-aversion models predict a positive one. This paper tests the hypothesis that the inconclusive results in the previous studies investigating the reaction of trustees to their beliefs are due to the fact that reciprocity and guilt aversion are behaviorally relevant for different subgroups and that their impact cancels out in the aggregate.
We find little evidence in support of this hypothesis and conclude that type heterogeneity is unlikely to explain previous results.
Engler, Y, Kerschbamer, R & Page, L 2018, 'Why did he do that? Using counterfactuals to study the effect of intentions in extensive form games', Experimental Economics, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 1-26.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
© 2017, Economic Science Association. We investigate the role of intentions in two-player two-stage games. For this purpose we systematically vary the set of opportunity sets the first mover can choose from and study how the second mover reacts not only to opportunities of gains but also of losses created by the choice of the first mover. We find that the possibility of gains for the second mover (generosity) and the risk of losses for the first mover (vulnerability) are important drivers for second mover behavior. On the other hand, efficiency concerns and an aversion against violating trust seem to be far less important motivations. We also find that second movers compare the actual choice of the first mover and the alternative choices that would have been available to him to allocations that involve equal material payoffs.
Gauriot, R & Page, L 2018, 'Psychological momentum in contests: The case of scoring before half-time in football', JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION, vol. 149, pp. 137-168.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Hew, A, Perrons, RK, Washington, S, Page, L & Zheng, Z 2018, 'Thinking together about the future when you are not together: The effectiveness of using developed scenarios among geographically distributed groups', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 133, pp. 206-219.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
© 2018 Elsevier Inc. Scenarios have been effectively used over the years to trigger and accelerate learning, to stretch the mental models of managers, and as a tool for helping executives to develop strategies in the face of uncertainty. However, the scenario literature frequently assumes a high degree of continuity between the scenario-building process and the use of the resulting scenarios in strategy development, and that the participants throughout these processes will be in the same geographic location. As part of a research project exploring the future of transportation in the Asia-Pacific region, we examine the use of previously developed scenarios by transport experts to re-imagine the future of transportation in the region. Our approach involved delivering scenarios online to enable the participation of various stakeholders in the region who were geographically dispersed. The results show that the developed scenarios contributed to individual learning that, in turn, led to a change in mental models. The results also demonstrate that scenario-related processes can be conducted online to be more cost-effective, flexible, and less constrained by geographic barriers. In doing so, this paper usefully extends both the theoretical and practical dimensions of this topic by exploring an alternative approach for large participation in scenario-related processes in the public domain.
Buscha, F, Muller, D & Page, L 2017, 'Can a common currency foster a shared social identity across different nations? The case of the euro', EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, vol. 100, pp. 318-336.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, L & Coates, J 2017, 'Winner and loser effects in human competitions. Evidence from equally matched tennis players', EVOLUTION AND HUMAN BEHAVIOR, vol. 38, no. 4, pp. 530-535.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, L, Sarkar, D & Silva-Goncalves, J 2017, 'The older the bolder: Does relative age among peers influence children's preference for competition?', JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PSYCHOLOGY, vol. 63, pp. 43-81.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Zhou, F, Zheng, Z, Whitehead, J, Perrons, R, Page, L & Washington, S 2017, 'Projected prevalence of car-sharing in four Asian-Pacific countries in 2030: What the experts think', TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART C-EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, vol. 84, pp. 158-177.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Kandasamy, N, Garfinkel, SN, Page, L, Hardy, B, Critchley, HD, Gurnell, M & Coates, JM 2016, 'Interoceptive Ability Predicts Survival on a London Trading Floor', SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, vol. 6.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Muller, D & Page, L 2016, 'Born leaders: political selection and the relative age effect in the US Congress', JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY, vol. 179, no. 3, pp. 809-829.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, L & Goldstein, DG 2016, 'Subjective beliefs about the income distribution and preferences for redistribution', SOCIAL CHOICE AND WELFARE, vol. 47, no. 1, pp. 25-61.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, L & Goldstein, DG 2016, 'The role of subjective beliefs in preferences for redistribution (vol 47, pg 25, 2016)', SOCIAL CHOICE AND WELFARE, vol. 47, no. 1, pp. 63-63.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Tam, KW & Page, L 2016, 'Effects of language proficiency on labour, social and health outcomes of immigrants in Australia', Economic Analysis and Policy, vol. 52, pp. 66-78.View/Download from: Publisher's site
© 2016 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland We investigate the causal effect of English proficiency on labour, social and health outcomes of immigrants in Australia. We use age at arrival combined with country of origin to form an instrument of English proficiency. We find that immigrants in Australia with better language proficiency are able to earn higher income, attain higher level of education, have higher probability of complete tertiary studies, and get more hours of work per week. Language proficiency also improves social integration, leading to higher probability of marriage to a native and higher probability of obtaining citizenship. We find only limited evidence with respect to the hypothesised causal relationship between language and health for immigrants. This last result may be due to small sample sizes.
von Hippel, W, Baker, E, Wilson, R, Brin, L & Page, L 2016, 'Detecting deceptive behaviour after the fact', BRITISH JOURNAL OF SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, vol. 55, no. 2, pp. 195-205.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Weeks, CS, Mortimer, G & Page, L 2016, 'Understanding how consumer education impacts shoppers over time: A longitudinal field study of unit price usage', JOURNAL OF RETAILING AND CONSUMER SERVICES, vol. 32, pp. 198-209.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Morton, RB, Muller, D, Page, L & Torgler, B 2015, 'Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: Evidence from a natural experiment', EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, vol. 77, pp. 65-81.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Kandasamy, N, Hardy, B, Page, L, Schaffner, M, Graggaber, J, Powlson, AS, Fletcher, PC, Gurnell, M & Coates, J 2014, 'Cortisol shifts financial risk preferences', PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, vol. 111, no. 9, pp. 3608-3613.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, L, Savage, DA & Torgler, B 2014, 'Variation in risk seeking behaviour following large losses: A natural experiment', EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, vol. 71, pp. 121-131.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Buscha, F, Maurel, A, Page, L & Speckesser, S 2012, 'The Effect of Employment while in High School on Educational Attainment: A Conditional Difference-in-Differences Approach', OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS, vol. 74, no. 3, pp. 380-396.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, K & Page, L 2010, 'Alone against the crowd: Individual differences in referees' ability to cope under pressure', JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PSYCHOLOGY, vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 192-199.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, L & Page, K 2010, 'Last shall be first: A field study of biases in sequential performance evaluation on the Idol series', JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION, vol. 73, no. 2, pp. 186-198.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, L & Page, K 2009, 'Stakes and Motivation in Tournaments: Playing When There is Nothing to Play for but Pride', Economic Analysis and Policy, vol. 39, no. 3, pp. 455-464.View/Download from: Publisher's site
© 2009 Economic Society of Australia (Queensland) Inc. Tournaments are an effective means of incentivising participants to ensure an optimal level of effort. However, situations can occur in tournaments where the final outcome of a given competitor does not depend on his/her future performance. Specifically, we study these specific situations in a data set of the group stages of European football club competitions from 1992 to 2009. We identify situations where teams are already sure to finish either first or last at the penultimate stage in the group. We show that such situations affect team performance in the last match, typically decreasing the performance of a team sure to finish first and increasing the performance of a team sure to finish last. The first finding is in line with the economic predictions yet provides interesting implications, namely that the schedule of the match order plays a significant role in the overall performance of the team. The second, counter-intuitive, finding is not well accommodated into the existing economics framework and thus we discuss two alternative explanations, one based on social pressure and the other on pride.
Di Pietro, G & Page, L 2008, 'Who studies abroad? Evidence from France and Italy', EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF EDUCATION, vol. 43, no. 3, pp. 389-398.
Page, L, Garboua, LL & Montmarquette, C 2007, 'Aspiration levels and educational choices: An experimental study', ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION REVIEW, vol. 26, no. 6, pp. 747-757.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, L & Page, K 2007, 'The second leg home advantage: Evidence from European football cup competitions', JOURNAL OF SPORTS SCIENCES, vol. 25, no. 14, pp. 1547-1556.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, L 2005, 'From social inequalities to educational inequalities: Educational choices and prospect theory', Revue Economique, vol. 56, no. 3, pp. 615-624.
The explanation of social inequalities in education has often been explained by dierences in aspiration levels between individuals from different social origins. Boudon  has suggested that these aspirational differences between the rich and the poor are a result of differing perceptions of success, such that individuals compare their success at school to the success of their parents. This paper utilises Prospect Theory (Kahneman and Tversky ) to provide a theoretical foundation to this thesis.
© 2018 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. Freud stated that his work on the subconscious was a third outrage to humanity's self-esteem (Freud & Strachey, 1977). First, Copernicus had shown that humans were not located at the center of the universe. Then, Darwin had shown that humans had not been specially created outside of the animal world. Finally, Freud showed that humans were not masters in their own mind. While there is not much scientific content to take away from Freud's work, this insight is still relevant in some sense to understand the progress of our understanding of the human mind. This progress has followed a dialectical path with opposite views replacing each other over time.
Page, L 2011, 'The ability of markets to predictconditional probabilities: Evidence from the US presidential campaign' in Prediction Markets: Theory and Applications, pp. 123-136.
Page, K & Page, L 2008, 'The Second Leg Home Advantage. Evidence from European Football Cups Competitions.' in Andersson, P, Ayon, P & Schmidt, C (eds), Myths and Facts about Football The Economics and Psychology of the World’s Greatest Sport, Cambridge Scholars Publishing.
What factors influence the career of footballers? How well can experts predict football matches? How accurate are prediction markets? How does the stock-market react to match outcomes? These questions and others are addressed in this book.
Gauriot, R & Page, L 2015, 'I Take Care of My Own: A Field Study on How Leadership Handles Conflict between Individual and Collective Incentives', AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, 127th Annual Meeting of the American-Economic-Association, AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC, Boston, MA, pp. 414-419.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Carton, AM, Larrick, RP & Page, L 2011, 'Back to the grind: How attention affects satisfaction during goal pursuit', Academy of Management 2011 Annual Meeting - West Meets East: Enlightening. Balancing. Transcending, AOM 2011.View/Download from: Publisher's site
A recent trend in job satisfaction research involves focusing not on overall satisfaction or satisfaction at any given moment, but instead on how satisfaction changes over time. One well-known but understudied example of how job satisfaction changes over time is "the grind," which is the period during goal pursuit when workers experience the least marginal gains in satisfaction. We demonstrate that whether people experience the grind during the beginning, middle, or the end of goal pursuit can be systematically manipulated according to the tenets of the value function in prospect theory. We also predict a way to "beat the grind." Results of three studies support our predictions.