Lionel joined the Economics Discipline Group in January 2019. He has received his PhD in economics from the Paris School of Economics in 2007.
Lionel possesses research skills from different fields including Econometrics, Decision Theory, Sociology and Behavioral Economics and applies them to practical problems from areas of financial and prediction markets, education and inequality. His research regularly attracts the attention of media, including The New York Times, Financial Times, Sydney Morning Herald, Australian Financial Review, and Wall Street Journal. Lionel has attracted more than AUD$3 million of competitive research funding in his career, including an ARC DECRA and two ARC Discovery grants.
- Coordinating editor: Theory and Decision
- Associate editor: Behavioural Public Policy
- Executive Committee: Economic Society of Australia, 2017 –
Research interests Study of individual and group behaviour.
- Choice under risk and uncertainty
- Behaviour in contests
- Political choices
- Social preferences
- Educational choices
Collins, J & Page, L 2019, 'The heritability of fertility makes world population stabilization unlikely in the foreseeable future', EVOLUTION AND HUMAN BEHAVIOR, vol. 40, no. 1, pp. 105-111.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, L & Gauriot, R 2019, 'Does success breed success? A quasi-experiment on strategic momentum in dynamic contests', Economic Journal.
Tournaments create incentives which motivate economic agents. Yet the
effect of tournaments on agents’ behaviour critically depends on their ability to identify their incentives and react to them accordingly. We investigate here how agents react to changes in incentives during dynamic contests. We use a quasi-experimental situation occurring in real dynamic contests with large stakes. Using point by point ball tracking data in tennis matches, we isolate situations where balls bounce very close to the court’s lines, landing either in or out. We use the associated random variations in winning probability to estimate the causal effect of being ahead or behind in the dynamic contest.
In line with predictions from contest theory, we find evidence of a momentum effect for male players. We do not find any significant effect for female players, suggesting gender differences in reaction to incentives in contests.
Page, L, Sarkar, D & Silva-Goncalves, J 2019, 'Long-lasting effects of relative age at school', Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, vol. 168, pp. 166-195.View/Download from: Publisher's site
© 2019 Elsevier B.V. We investigate the long-lasting effects on behaviour of relative age at school. We conduct an online incentivised survey with a sample of 1007 adults, who were born at most two months before or after the school entry cut-off date in four Australian states. We find those who were among the oldest in the classroom throughout their school years display higher self-confidence, are more willing to enter in some form of competition and declare taking more risk in a range of domains in their life, compared to those who were among the youngest.
Zhou, F, Page, L, Perrons, RK, Zheng, Z & Washington, S 2019, 'Long-term forecasts for energy commodities price: What the experts think', Energy Economics, vol. 84.View/Download from: Publisher's site
© 2019 Elsevier B.V. The ability to forecast energy prices in the long-term is important for a wide range of reasons, from the formulation of countries' energy and transportation policies to the defensive strategies of nations to investment decisions within the private sector. Despite the importance of these predictions, however, forecasters and market pundits face a difficult challenge when trying to forecast over the long-term. While statistical models can credibly rely on assumptions about the relationship between variables in the short-term, they are frequently less reliable in the long-term as political and technological transformations profoundly change how the economy works over time. Towards improving long-term predictions for energy commodities, this paper uses the elicitation and aggregation of experts' beliefs to put forward forecasts for crude oil and natural gas prices by incentivizing experts to tell the truth and minimising their own biases through the application of the Bayesian Truth Serum. With this approach, we generated both short-term and long-term forecasts, and used the short-term forecast to validate the quality of the experts' predictions.
Engler, Y, Kerschbamer, R & Page, L 2018, 'Guilt averse or reciprocal? Looking at behavioral motivations in the trust game', Journal of the Economic Science Association, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 1-14.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
For the trust game, recent models of belief-dependent motivations make
opposite predictions regarding the correlation between back transfers and secondorder beliefs of the trustor: while reciprocity models predict a negative correlation, guilt-aversion models predict a positive one. This paper tests the hypothesis that the inconclusive results in the previous studies investigating the reaction of trustees to their beliefs are due to the fact that reciprocity and guilt aversion are behaviorally relevant for different subgroups and that their impact cancels out in the aggregate.
We find little evidence in support of this hypothesis and conclude that type heterogeneity is unlikely to explain previous results.
Engler, Y, Kerschbamer, R & Page, L 2018, 'Why did he do that? Using counterfactuals to study the effect of intentions in extensive form games', Experimental Economics, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 1-26.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
© 2017, Economic Science Association. We investigate the role of intentions in two-player two-stage games. For this purpose we systematically vary the set of opportunity sets the first mover can choose from and study how the second mover reacts not only to opportunities of gains but also of losses created by the choice of the first mover. We find that the possibility of gains for the second mover (generosity) and the risk of losses for the first mover (vulnerability) are important drivers for second mover behavior. On the other hand, efficiency concerns and an aversion against violating trust seem to be far less important motivations. We also find that second movers compare the actual choice of the first mover and the alternative choices that would have been available to him to allocations that involve equal material payoffs.
We provide evidence of a violation of the informativeness principle whereby lucky successes are overly rewarded. We isolate a quasi-experimental situation where the success of an agent is as good as random. To do so, we use high quality data on football (soccer) matches and select shots on goal which landed on the goal posts. Using non scoring shots, taken from a similar location on the pitch, as counterfactuals to scoring shots, we estimate the causal effect of a lucky success (goal) on the evaluation of the player’s performance. We find clear evidence that luck is overly influencing managers’ decisions and evaluators’ ratings. Our results suggest that this phenomenon is likely to be widespread in economic organizations.
Gauriot, R & Page, L 2018, 'Psychological momentum in contests: The case of scoring before half-time in football', JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION, vol. 149, pp. 137-168.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Hew, A, Perrons, RK, Washington, S, Page, L & Zheng, Z 2018, 'Thinking together about the future when you are not together: The effectiveness of using developed scenarios among geographically distributed groups', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 133, pp. 206-219.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
© 2018 Elsevier Inc. Scenarios have been effectively used over the years to trigger and accelerate learning, to stretch the mental models of managers, and as a tool for helping executives to develop strategies in the face of uncertainty. However, the scenario literature frequently assumes a high degree of continuity between the scenario-building process and the use of the resulting scenarios in strategy development, and that the participants throughout these processes will be in the same geographic location. As part of a research project exploring the future of transportation in the Asia-Pacific region, we examine the use of previously developed scenarios by transport experts to re-imagine the future of transportation in the region. Our approach involved delivering scenarios online to enable the participation of various stakeholders in the region who were geographically dispersed. The results show that the developed scenarios contributed to individual learning that, in turn, led to a change in mental models. The results also demonstrate that scenario-related processes can be conducted online to be more cost-effective, flexible, and less constrained by geographic barriers. In doing so, this paper usefully extends both the theoretical and practical dimensions of this topic by exploring an alternative approach for large participation in scenario-related processes in the public domain.
Buscha, F, Muller, D & Page, L 2017, 'Can a common currency foster a shared social identity across different nations? The case of the euro', EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, vol. 100, pp. 318-336.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, L & Coates, J 2017, 'Winner and loser effects in human competitions. Evidence from equally matched tennis players', EVOLUTION AND HUMAN BEHAVIOR, vol. 38, no. 4, pp. 530-535.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, L, Sarkar, D & Silva-Goncalves, J 2017, 'The older the bolder: Does relative age among peers influence children's preference for competition?', JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PSYCHOLOGY, vol. 63, pp. 43-81.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Zhou, F, Zheng, Z, Whitehead, J, Perrons, R, Page, L & Washington, S 2017, 'Projected prevalence of car-sharing in four Asian-Pacific countries in 2030: What the experts think', TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART C-EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, vol. 84, pp. 158-177.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Kandasamy, N, Garfinkel, SN, Page, L, Hardy, B, Critchley, HD, Gurnell, M & Coates, JM 2016, 'Interoceptive Ability Predicts Survival on a London Trading Floor', SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, vol. 6.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Muller, D & Page, L 2016, 'Born leaders: political selection and the relative age effect in the US Congress', JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY, vol. 179, no. 3, pp. 809-829.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, L & Goldstein, DG 2016, 'Subjective beliefs about the income distribution and preferences for redistribution', SOCIAL CHOICE AND WELFARE, vol. 47, no. 1, pp. 25-61.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, L & Goldstein, DG 2016, 'The role of subjective beliefs in preferences for redistribution (vol 47, pg 25, 2016)', SOCIAL CHOICE AND WELFARE, vol. 47, no. 1, pp. 63-63.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Tam, KW & Page, L 2016, 'Effects of language proficiency on labour, social and health outcomes of immigrants in Australia', Economic Analysis and Policy, vol. 52, pp. 66-78.View/Download from: Publisher's site
© 2016 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland We investigate the causal effect of English proficiency on labour, social and health outcomes of immigrants in Australia. We use age at arrival combined with country of origin to form an instrument of English proficiency. We find that immigrants in Australia with better language proficiency are able to earn higher income, attain higher level of education, have higher probability of complete tertiary studies, and get more hours of work per week. Language proficiency also improves social integration, leading to higher probability of marriage to a native and higher probability of obtaining citizenship. We find only limited evidence with respect to the hypothesised causal relationship between language and health for immigrants. This last result may be due to small sample sizes.
von Hippel, W, Baker, E, Wilson, R, Brin, L & Page, L 2016, 'Detecting deceptive behaviour after the fact', BRITISH JOURNAL OF SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, vol. 55, no. 2, pp. 195-205.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Weeks, CS, Mortimer, G & Page, L 2016, 'Understanding how consumer education impacts shoppers over time: A longitudinal field study of unit price usage', JOURNAL OF RETAILING AND CONSUMER SERVICES, vol. 32, pp. 198-209.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Morton, RB, Muller, D, Page, L & Torgler, B 2015, 'Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: Evidence from a natural experiment', EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, vol. 77, pp. 65-81.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Kandasamy, N, Hardy, B, Page, L, Schaffner, M, Graggaber, J, Powlson, AS, Fletcher, PC, Gurnell, M & Coates, J 2014, 'Cortisol shifts financial risk preferences', PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, vol. 111, no. 9, pp. 3608-3613.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, L, Savage, DA & Torgler, B 2014, 'Variation in risk seeking behaviour following large losses: A natural experiment', EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, vol. 71, pp. 121-131.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Buscha, F, Maurel, A, Page, L & Speckesser, S 2012, 'The Effect of Employment while in High School on Educational Attainment: A Conditional Difference-in-Differences Approach', OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS, vol. 74, no. 3, pp. 380-396.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, K & Page, L 2010, 'Alone against the crowd: Individual differences in referees' ability to cope under pressure', JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PSYCHOLOGY, vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 192-199.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, L & Page, K 2010, 'Last shall be first: A field study of biases in sequential performance evaluation on the Idol series', JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION, vol. 73, no. 2, pp. 186-198.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, L & Page, K 2009, 'Stakes and Motivation in Tournaments: Playing When There is Nothing to Play for but Pride', Economic Analysis and Policy, vol. 39, no. 3, pp. 455-464.View/Download from: Publisher's site
© 2009 Economic Society of Australia (Queensland) Inc. Tournaments are an effective means of incentivising participants to ensure an optimal level of effort. However, situations can occur in tournaments where the final outcome of a given competitor does not depend on his/her future performance. Specifically, we study these specific situations in a data set of the group stages of European football club competitions from 1992 to 2009. We identify situations where teams are already sure to finish either first or last at the penultimate stage in the group. We show that such situations affect team performance in the last match, typically decreasing the performance of a team sure to finish first and increasing the performance of a team sure to finish last. The first finding is in line with the economic predictions yet provides interesting implications, namely that the schedule of the match order plays a significant role in the overall performance of the team. The second, counter-intuitive, finding is not well accommodated into the existing economics framework and thus we discuss two alternative explanations, one based on social pressure and the other on pride.
Di Pietro, G & Page, L 2008, 'Who studies abroad? Evidence from France and Italy', EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF EDUCATION, vol. 43, no. 3, pp. 389-398.
Page, L & Page, K 2007, 'The second leg home advantage: Evidence from European football cup competitions', JOURNAL OF SPORTS SCIENCES, vol. 25, no. 14, pp. 1547-1556.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, L, Garboua, LL & Montmarquette, C 2007, 'Aspiration levels and educational choices: An experimental study', ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION REVIEW, vol. 26, no. 6, pp. 747-757.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Page, L 2005, 'From social inequalities to educational inequalities: Educational choices and prospect theory', Revue Economique, vol. 56, no. 3, pp. 615-624.
The explanation of social inequalities in education has often been explained by dierences in aspiration levels between individuals from different social origins. Boudon  has suggested that these aspirational differences between the rich and the poor are a result of differing perceptions of success, such that individuals compare their success at school to the success of their parents. This paper utilises Prospect Theory (Kahneman and Tversky ) to provide a theoretical foundation to this thesis.
© 2018 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. Freud stated that his work on the subconscious was a third outrage to humanity's self-esteem (Freud & Strachey, 1977). First, Copernicus had shown that humans were not located at the center of the universe. Then, Darwin had shown that humans had not been specially created outside of the animal world. Finally, Freud showed that humans were not masters in their own mind. While there is not much scientific content to take away from Freud's work, this insight is still relevant in some sense to understand the progress of our understanding of the human mind. This progress has followed a dialectical path with opposite views replacing each other over time.
Gauriot, R & Page, L 2015, 'I Take Care of My Own: A Field Study on How Leadership Handles Conflict between Individual and Collective Incentives', AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, 127th Annual Meeting of the American-Economic-Association, AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC, Boston, MA, pp. 414-419.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Carton, AM, Larrick, RP & Page, L 2011, 'Back to the grind: How attention affects satisfaction during goal pursuit', Academy of Management 2011 Annual Meeting - West Meets East: Enlightening. Balancing. Transcending, AOM 2011.View/Download from: Publisher's site
A recent trend in job satisfaction research involves focusing not on overall satisfaction or satisfaction at any given moment, but instead on how satisfaction changes over time. One well-known but understudied example of how job satisfaction changes over time is "the grind," which is the period during goal pursuit when workers experience the least marginal gains in satisfaction. We demonstrate that whether people experience the grind during the beginning, middle, or the end of goal pursuit can be systematically manipulated according to the tenets of the value function in prospect theory. We also predict a way to "beat the grind." Results of three studies support our predictions.