de Valence, G. & Runeson, G. 2015, 'Graham Ive and the methodology of construction economics', Construction Management and Economics, vol. 33, no. 2, pp. 126-133.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
© 2015 Taylor & Francis. Graham Ive's central contribution to our methodological debate was his insistence on the firm as the analytical unit. Ive argues we should reject theories if the aspect of construction we are examining does not satisfy the assumptions of a particular theoretical model. We see this in his rejection of neoclassical economic theories in the two topics discussed in this paper: the adoption of innovations in construction; and microeconomic analysis as it relates to price determination in the market for construction. The former requires studying not just participants in the building process, but also participants in the innovation process, and the latter uses post-Keynesian pricing theory where prices are set according to mark-up procedures and vary with costs, but not directly with demand. This is in contrast to the general equilibrium, perfectly competitive price setting of neoclassical economics. Ive and his collaborators show a way towards better research in their emphasis on theory and the insistence that for construction economics the analytical units are the industry and the firm, not the project. Ive's concern is that the processes involved in organizing the production of buildings should be seen as a distinctive and defining element of our analysis of the industry.
Runeson, G. & de Valence, G. 2015, 'A critique of the methodology of building economics: trust the theories', Construction Management and Economics, vol. 33, no. 2, pp. 117-125.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
© 2015 Taylor & Francis. Ive's most important contribution to good research was his promotion of existing theories and in particular, the use of the firm rather than the project, as the primary analytical unit. It is suggested that the current standard of research in building economics is poor, and that the failure to use existing theories shares a considerable responsibility for this problem. The predominance of poorly conceived and executed research has put us into a position where the conclusions of 80% of published research papers across the social sciences (which includes building economics) should probably be reversed because of poor methodology, research design and analysis. Peer review, rather than being one of the cornerstones of self-correcting science, is particularly problematic in building economics as it serves to isolate us from external monitoring. Replication, the second cornerstone of good science, has more or less disappeared from our journals as it's not considered prestigious. The end result is that there is no real quality control at the same time as quantity has become increasingly important for resource allocations and academic positions, seriously overextending the system for publications. The only way back to good research is to stop experimenting with fashionable but unsound methodologies and return to tried and tested theories and methodologies.
Choy, C.F., Skitmore, M., Runeson, G. & Bridge, A. 2012, 'An analysis of construction productivity in Malaysia', Construction Management and Economics, vol. 30, no. 12, pp. 1055-1069.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
The construction industry is an industry of major strategic importance. Its level of productivity has a significant effect on national economic growth. Productivity indicators are examined. The indicators consist of labour productivity, capital productivity, labour competitiveness, capital intensity and added value content of data, which are obtained from the published census/biannual surveys of the construction industry between the years 1999 and 2011 from the Department of Statistics of Malaysia. The results indicated that there is an improvement in the labour productivity, but the value-added content is declining. The civil engineering and special trades subsectors are more productive than the residential and non-residential subsectors in terms of labour productivity because machine-for-labour substitution is a more important process in those subsectors. The capital-intensive characteristics of civil engineering and special trade works enable these subsectors to achieve higher added value per labour cost but not the capital productivity. The added value per labour cost is lower in larger organizations despite higher capital productivity. However, the capital intensity is lower and unit labour cost is higher in the larger organizations.
Gajendran, T., Brewer, G., Dainty, A. & Runeson, G. 2012, 'A conceptual approach to studying the organisational culture of construction projects', Australasian Journal of Construction Economics and Building, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 26-41.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Studying the culture of project organisations requires a robust theoretical framework, which provides a platform for generating understanding. It is argued that cultural analysis frameworks are most effectively conceptualised from multiple philosophical and multi-methodological positions. To this end this paper presents a cultural analysis framework for studying construction project organisations, based on a synthesis of the culture literature. Four key aspects underpinning organisational cultural framework are explored: the paradigms used to conceptualise organisational culture, the methods by which individuals represent and assess cultural dimensions, the cultural perspectives assumed by the observer when defining and describing culture, and the managers orientation to culture in their organisations. The proposed framework comprises three synthesised cultural philosophical positions: integration-technical, differentiation-practical and fragmentation-emancipation. These philosophical positions span the polar extremes defining the cultural paradigm continuum, which together provide researchers and organisational managers with a sound foundation from which to study the culture of project organisations
De Valence, G. & Runeson, G. 2011, 'On the State of the Building Industry after the GFC and the Euro Crisis', Australasian Journal of Construction Economics and Building, vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 102-113.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
There has been an intense debate in the media and among academics on how the great financial crisis has affected the global economy, and how the effects have differed in different regions of the world. This survey was designed to establish to what extent the building industry has been affected by the GFC and the Euro crisis. Over the last months we have asked senior academics and executives in construction businesses what has happened up to now in their region, what will most likely happen in the near future and in the long term. The answer is that in developed economies the effect has been a substantial downturn as finances have dried up while in developing economies in most regions, demand has been sustained due to population growth with ever increasing needs for residential building and infrastructure. While there is some apprehension about the potential effects of the Euro crisis deepening, no-one seems really worried. In the long term there is an agreement, in developed and developing countries alike, that current business models do not work and that the industry has to reinvent itself to be sustainable.
Gajendran, T., Brewer, G., Runeson, G. & Dainty, A. 2011, 'Investigating Informality in Construction: Philosophy, Paradigm and Practice', Australasian Journal of Construction Economics and Building, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 84-98.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
The complex interrelationships commonly enacted as a consequence of project team activity take a number of different forms, including those formally dictated by contract conditions. However it is becoming increasingly apparent that project performance is affected by informal relationships, though their investigation is notoriously difficult. This paper proposes that these difficulties arise partly from the nature of the informalities themselves, but also as a consequence of the philosophical position taken by researchers and their consequent methodological/paradigmatic posture, and its impact upon those being studied. It consequently proposes a subjectivist investigative framework that accommodates multiple philosophical points of departure, matching them to a range of alternative methodologies, and indicates the desirability of blending to reflect the peculiarities of each context under investigation. The framework also accommodates the practicalities of putting complex methodologies into action. The paper concludes that this framework presents opportunities to conduct rigorous in-situ investigations of informality at work, leading to authentic and deep insights that would otherwise remain unseen
Oo, B., Drew, D.S. & Runeson, G. 2010, 'Competitor analysis in construction bidding', Construction Management and Economics, vol. 28, no. 12, pp. 1321-1329.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Bidding strategies vary from contractor to contractor, each of which will have different degrees of sensitivity towards the factors affecting their bidding decisions. A competitor analysis using a linear mixed model is proposed for use by contractors as part of a more informed approach in identifying key competitors, and as a basis for formulating bidding strategies. The competitiveness between bids is examined according ti: (i) project size; (ii) work sector; (iii) work nature; and (iv) number of bidders.The model was tested empirically by application to a bidding dataset obtained from a large Hong Kong contractor. Allowing for different degrees of sensitivity towards the four bidding variables across competing contractors (i.e. with the model parameters that varied across competing contractors), the results indicate that competitiveness in bidding of this contractor is generally greater than the majority of its competitors.
Runeson, G. & Brewer, G. 2009, 'Innovation and attitude: Mapping the profile of ICT decision-makers in architectural, engineering and construction firms', International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 599-610.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to report upon a doctoral thesis within the context of temporary project organisations that was driven by the question: what really influences decision makers when considering whether or not to adopt an innovation? This paper describes the philosophy, methodology and findings of the study, and illustrates the usefulness of the findings for application in construction and other project-driven industries. Design/methodology/approach The attitude of decision makers is discernible in their behaviour, which is an observable phenomenon. It has been observed from outside using a Delphi study of experts, providing an etic perspective, and reported upon first-hand through multiple in-depth interviews with experienced practitioners, thereby providing an emic counterpoint. Both perspectives have been further abstracted to develop a synthesised model of the attitudinal profile of information and communication technology (ICT) decision makers in the construction industry.
Runeson, G. 2006, 'Construction price formation: full-cost pricing or neoclassical microeconomic theory?', Construction Management and Economics, vol. 24, no. 7, pp. 773-783.
Runeson, G. & Skitmore, M. 2006, 'Bidding Models: testing the stationarity assumption', Construction Management and Economics, vol. 24, no. 7, pp. 791-803.
Skitmore, M. & Runeson, G. 2006, 'Bidding Models: Testing the Stationarity Assumption', Construction Management and Economics, vol. 24, no. 8, pp. 791-803.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Skitmore, M., Runeson, G. & Chang, X. 2006, 'Construction Price Formation: Full cost Pricing or Neo-Classical Microeconomic Theory', Construction Management and Economics, vol. 24, no. 7, pp. 773-783.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Neo-classical microeconomic theory has been suggested to offer (1) an appropriate analytical tool for construction price determination while, at the same time, (2) full-cost pricing is most commonly accepted pricing policy of construction firms. Paradoxically, however, both are mutually exclusive theories. Only one, if any, can be correct. This paper examines both (1) and (2) by analysis of the evidence available in literature and concludes in favour of (1). It is only in disequilibrium, however, that the differences in behaviour can be clearly observed. In equilibrium, the difference between the two theories from a practical point of view is not very substantial. In addition, the endemic nature of uncertainty in the industry in general makes the task of estimating costs and prices difficult in practice. Therefore, although neoclassical microeconomic theory provides a useful means of analysis, it offers little for the practice of pricing, which is much more closely related to the marketing discipline than economics.
This paper develops a forecasting model of residential property prices for Hong Kong using an artificial neural network approach. Quarterly time-series data are applied for testing and the empirical results suggest that property price index, lagged one period, rental index, and the number of agreements for sales and purchases of units are the major determinants of the residential property price performance in Hong Kong. The results also suggest that the neural network methodology has the ability to learn, generalize, and converge time series.
This paper discusses the appropriate methodology for establishing a model for forecasting building price movements and interpreting building value statistics. The proposed methodology is illustrated with an ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression model quantifying the effects on the price level of variations in the degree of competitiveness in the industry. The dependent variable is a Market Conditions Index and the predictor variables are Building Approvals, Fixed Capital Formation in Building and the Rate of Unemployment. This model overcomes one of the most serious shortcomings of previous models in that it incorporates into the model adjustments to the capacity of the industry in response to variations in demand with the consequential improvement in accuracy. © 1988, Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. All rights reserved.
Runeson, K.G. 2015, 'Background to purchasing power parity indices' in Best, R. & Meikle, J. (eds), Measuring Construction: Prices, Output and Productivity, Routledge, UK, pp. 11-24.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Prices, Output and Productivity Rick Best, Jim Meikle ... Much that is written about
construction prices, output, productivity and the rest is unreliable or plain wrong,
sometimes deliberately, often not. It is hoped that some of the approaches and ...
Academic research into building economics is comparatively new, if by academic research we mean the kind of research we have in well-established academic disciplines. It seems that a new discipline, like building economics, goes through a set of stages before it reaches scientific maturity. Initially, there is no research and the writing is prescriptive. When the research begins, it's essentially descriptive. This stage is followed by a stage of explanatory or analytical research where the aim is to build and test theories. The final step is the problem-solving stage where the theories and analytical techniques developed in the previous stage are used for forecasting and predictions or to solve practical problems.
Runeson, G. & De Valence, G. 2009, 'The new construction industry' in Les Ruddock (ed), Economics for the Modern Built Environment, Taylor & Francis, London and New York, pp. 199-211.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
This chapter deals with the creation of the 'new construction industry" a part of the construction industry that is as different: from conventional construction as to constitute a separate, totally new industry. The driving force behind the development of this new industry is the tendency of large firms to grow larger aided by globalization and progress in communication technology. The result is a high technology oligopoly developing out of, but separate from, the rraditional construction industry. It consists of a small number of very large firms operating in the global market, competing with technology and products, offering a complete project from material to design, finance, construction and operation. In this chapter we will first look at why and how firms grow, how the environment in which the building industry is operating is changing and how construction firms are responding. Finally, we will look at the theoretical and empirical implications of these responses in the form of the new construction industry.
Runeson, G. & Skitmore, M. 2008, 'Scientific Theories' in Knight, A. & Ruddock, L. (eds), Advanced Research Methods in the Built Environment, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, UK, pp. 75-85.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
The aim ofthis chapter is to look briefly at theories in general, before concentrating on scientific theories - how they are used, structured, tested and verified. The research that usesthe kind of scientific theories we are concentrating on is often referred to as quantitative research but for the sake of completeness, we will also discuss theories in the so-called qualitative research. Theories are an absolutely essential part of our daily life. They help us to make sense of the enormous mass of information and perceptions we are bombarded with every day. Theories help us to recognise, identify and classify things and events, to understand, explain, relate and to make predictions. They give us context and hierarchy. In short, theories combine to make up our understanding of the world. We have theories for all purposes, theories that say that 'if you heat up a metal rod, it will expand' or 'the time required to make a decision is in inverse proportion to the money involved' or 'the earth is flat' or that 'if you sin, God will punish you'
Dadzie, J., Ding, G. & Runeson, G. 2016, 'Investigating the use of sustainable technologies in existing buildings for energy efficiency', The 40th Australian Universities Building Education Association Conference, Australian Universities Building Education Association Annual Conference, Central Queensland University, Gold Coast, Queensland, pp. 157-167.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
The overall energy efficiency of existing buildings may be improved by the installation of sustainable technologies (STs). This paper investigates STs adopted to improve energy consumption, and identifies which class of technology has been mostly used to improve energy efficiency. To achieve this aim, existing buildings were evaluated on the basis of the type of STs installed during retrofitting to achieve energy efficiency. The research approach is a survey of professionals in the construction industry. A questionnaire was designed based upon literature and current available information on the various sustainable technologies used to improve energy performance of existing building through renovation actions. Through the survey, various STs installed in various types of building were recorded and analysed. The results show that close to 80% of the STs installed during retrofitting are those targeting the lighting and control systems, energy efficient insulation systems for old buildings, sensors, energy management systems and smart meters. The rest are double glazing, natural ventilation, energy efficient fans, energy efficient hot water systems, and water efficient systems. However, less than 10% targeted the building faade, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) and solar systems.
Nguyen, D., Ding, G.K. & Runeson, G. 2013, 'Sustainable Maintenance of Office Buildings: The Current Practice in Sydney, Australia', Proceedings: 38th AUBEA International Conference website, Australian Universities Building Education Association Annual Conference, AUBEA, Auckland, New Zealand, pp. 1-10.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
In Australia, approximately 2% of the demand for office buildings is satisfied annually by new construction which means that it will take 50-100 years to replace the current stock and its contribution to the environmental problem. The argument for upgrading existing buildings through sustainable maintenance is strong as it is relatively cheaper and less environmentally costly to upgrade than to rebuild. The upgrading will not only turn old buildings environmentally-friendly but also enhance their market values and competitiveness. This paper examines the role, current practices and limitations of sustainable maintenance of existing office buildings in Sydney, Australia. The paper presents the results of an industry survey conducted in November 2012 on strategies to improve current practices. The survey revealed that the most crucial aspects of sustainable maintenance for existing office buildings are efficient energy and water management; the use of environmentally-friendly materials; improved waste management; education and knowledge of sustainable methods and Government incentives to compensate for any additional costs of sustainable practices. The research found that most existing office buildings in the industry are currently maintained by non-sustainable practices. Sustainability is a relatively new concept but one that professionals are keen to introduce into mainstream practices.
Runeson, G. & De Valence, G. 2013, 'International Construction: From Transnational to Global', Proceedings: 38th AUBEA International Conference Website, Australian Universities Building Education Association Annual Conference, AUBEA2013, Auckland, pp. 1-10.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Globalisation has transformed the world and national economies and had a profound impact on the way we live. The construction industry has been part of this transformation, driven by a number of factors. The development of the concept of globalisation in construction is divided into three chronological periods. The first starts with the work of Strassman and Wells (1988) and includes Hawk on the formation of the new construction industry (1991) and Abdul-Aziz's (1994) comparison of Japanese and American international construction firms. These writers document the change from the transnational firm discussed by Strassman and Wells within a conventional trade theory to Hawks and Abdul-Azizs work on the characteristics of the global firm operating in a globalised market. The second period runs from 1994 to about 2007 and the review identifies issues thought to be important in international construction at the time: competitiveness, technology and technology transfer, procurement and mergers and acquisitions. They draw surprisingly little from the previous discussion of globalisation, treating each issue in isolation. The third period starts about 2007 and brings together the different strands of thinking into a new, more mature, but equally footloose concept of globalisation. The review finds that there has been little progress in the appreciation of the effects of globalisation on the construction industry, which is surprising given the importance of the topic. The review concludes that there are a number of mega projects that call for firms with global outlooks, capabilities and strategies, but there is no global market in terms of how global manufacturing firms compete against each other. However, globalisation has created a new type of firms that in effect represent the development of a new industry that is changing our concept of construction.
Geyer, B. & Runeson, G. 2012, 'The impact of educational institutions on housing prices: a case study of Killara High School', Australasian Universities Building Educators Association (AUBEA), 37th International Conference: Proceedings, Australian Universities Building Education Association Annual Conference, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, pp. 459-470.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
This paper quantifies the house price premium associated with a leading public school in Sydney, Australia, Killara High School. Using the boundary discontinuity method this study compares sales data from properties on either side of a local enrolment boundary that divides a suburb in two equal parts. This controls for the effects of neighbourhood characteristics. Using a Hedonic index allows for a micro approach to investigating the impact of the school on house prices and finds, that for the suburb under study, homes located within the enrolment area are worth approximately 17.6% more than homes located just outside the boundary. The paper also explores the impact of the school's policy on out-of-area enrolment and the awareness and willingness of parents to pay for their children's education through house price premiums.
Choy, C.F., Skitmore, M., Runeson, G. & Bridge, A. 2011, 'Property Investment, Construction and Economic Growth: the Case of Malaysia', Asian Conference on Real Estate 2011, ACRE.
It is generally accepted that there is a close relationship between property investment and construction activity. The construction sector plays a crucial role in economic development, especially for a developing nation such as MAlaysia. However, the volume of new properties added to the property market is only a fraction of the total volume of the property market. Is the conventional assumption of the relationship between property investment and construction supported by empirical data? This paper revisits the tripartite relationships between economic growths, property investment and construction activities with official Malaysian 2000Q1-2010Q4 quarterly time series data. the Granger causality tests are used to establish the causality runs from the GDP to the value of property transactions, and the growth of construction activities to GDP growth. The result is expected to be useful for policymakers and industrial practitioners in formulating industrial policies and corporate strategies.
Gajendran, T., Brewer, G., Runeson, G. & Dainty, A. 2011, 'Research methodologies for studying the informal aspects of construction project organisations', MISBE2011 Proceedings of the international Conference on Management and Innovation for a Sustainable Built Environment, international Conference on Management and Innovation for a Sustainable Built Environment, Delft University of Technology, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, pp. 1-15.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
It has been argued that the informal aspects of construction projects play a significant role in the way the project coalesces and subsequently operates. These informalities (e.g. practices, systems, clans) may be real and visible, or simply perceived and thus invisible; commonly encountered in projects or specific to a particular project's context; ethical/legal or unethical/illegal. These dimensions suggest a framework within which to describe the emergence of a project's organizational behaviour. Non-functionalists and subjectivists argue that the informal issues can be best understood by using an emancipatory framework of investigation. This paper presents an approach to the design of research methods appropriate to such tasks. In doing so it accommodates various philosophical points of departure, and the blending of various methods, to construct rigorous analysis to deliver context specific outcomes.
Runeson, G. 2011, 'Action Research into Online Publishing', 36th Annual Conference for Australasian University Building Educators Association, Australian Universities Building Education Association Annual Conference, Institute of Sustainable Development and Architecture, Bond University, Gold Coast, Australia, pp. 512-522.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Action research is a suitable tool for research into the management of change in an organisation or community. While it combines the researcher and the change agent, and therefore incorporates the views and opinions of the researcher, it can help to shed light on problems that are not susceptible to other approaches. In this case, the action is the change to on-line publishing of the Australasian Journal of Construction Economics and Building that had achieved a very small circulation in a conventional format. The aim is to increase the availability of the journal without increase the costs. The various actions involved in changing the mode of operation are examined through their impact, to the extent that they can be isolated. The conclusion is that the actions have been beneficial, overall and in respect of the aims of increasing availability without increases in costs.
Runeson, G. 2011, 'Building information modelling and construction project team integration: A case study of theory and practice', International Construction Business & Management Symposium 2011: Book of abstracts, UTm Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur.
Chia, F., Skitmore, M., Runeson, G. & Bridge, A. 2010, 'An assessment of construction labour productivity in Malaysia', CIB 2010 World Congress Proceedings, International Council for Research and Innovation in Building and Construction (CIB) Meetings, Workshops, Symposia, Conferences, CIB, Salford, United Kingdom, pp. 1-14.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
The construction industry is one of major strategic importance. Its level of productivity has a significant effect on national economic growth. The analysis of published census/biannual surveys of construction by the Department of Statistics of Malaysia shows that Malaysia managed to achieve construction labour productivity growth between 1996 and 2005 despite increases in cost per employee. The decrease in unit labour costs is attributed to the value added improvement per worker through the increase in capital intensity. The marginal decline in capital productivity is due to the gestation period and the overcapacity of the industry. The civil engineering sub-sector recorded the highest labour productivity and is the most labour competitive in terms of unit labour cost and added value per labour cost. The residential sub-sectors recorded greatest change in the productivity indicators between 1996 and 2005.
Chia, F., Skitmore, M., Runeson, G. & Bridge, A. 2010, 'International Comparisons of Malaysian Construction Labour Productivity', CIB 2010 World Congress Proceedings, International Council for Research and Innovation in Building and Construction (CIB) Meetings, Workshops, Symposia, Conferences, CIB, Salford, United Kingdom, pp. 1-13.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Productivity is basic statistical information for many international comparisons and country performance assessments. This study estimates the construction labour productivity of 79 selected economies. The real (purchasing power parities converted) and nominal construction expenditure from the Report of 2005 International Comparison Programme published by the World Bank and construction employment from the database of labour statistics (LABORSTA) operated by the Bureau of Statistics of International LAbour Organisation were used in the estimation. The inference statistics indicate that the descending order of nominal construction labour productivity from high income economies to low income economies is not established. the average construction labour productivity of low income economies is higher than middle income economies when the productivity calculation uses purchasing power parities converted data. MAlaysia ranked 50th and 63rd position among the 79 selected economies on real and nominal measurement respectively.
De Valence, G. & Runeson, G. 2009, 'Globalisation in construction', Construction Facing Worldwide Challenges, International Council for Research and Innovation in Building and Construction (CIB) Meetings, Workshops, Symposia, Conferences, Facukty of Civel Engineering, University of Zagreb, Dubrovnik, Croatia, pp. 200-209.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Ding, G.K. & Runeson, G. 2007, 'A BASIX tool for environmental assessment of residential buildings - An Australian approach', CME 25 Conference Construction Management and Economics 'Past, Present and Future', Construction Management and Economics Conference, University of Reading, UK, Reading, UK, pp. 931-940.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Ng, K.W. & Runeson, G. 2008, 'An Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the Green Building Performance Tool in Singapore', World Sustainable Building Conference - SB08, World Sustainable Building Conference, SB08, Melbourne, pp. 687-692.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Ng, K.W., Prasad, D. & Runeson, G. 2008, 'Clinical Outcomes and Subjective Valuations for Remodelled Green Health Care Facilities', Proceedings of the World Sustainable Building Conference SB08, World Sustainable Building Conference, SB08, Melbourne, Australia, pp. 1-10.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
The aim of this conference paper is to discuss a new approach to redevelopment appraisal for green health-care facilities. Research shows the need to combine various models or approaches to achieve this objective due to uncertainties from clinical outcomes and subjective valuations of decision makers. This study attempts to combine three major approaches/models to green healthcare facility redevelopment: clinical evidence based assessment, whole of life cycle costing (WLCC) and uncertainty analysis.
Ge, J. & Runeson, G. 2006, 'A dynamic model of housing markets and housing prices', Proceedings of the Australasian Universities Building Educators Association (AUBEA), Australian Universities Building Education Association Annual Conference, Faculty of Design, Architecture and Building, UTS, Sydney, Australia, pp. 1-18.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
This study develops a dynamic model for analyzing residential housing market behavior both in the long and short-term perspective. In the long-term model, the dynamic effects of changes in aggregate housing demand and supply are described. In the short-term model, the impacts of demand and supply shocks on the housing prices, resulting in rapid changes in housing prices are illustrated. This model is consistent with traditional housing economic theory. The differences re that it can demonstrate three-dimensional movement and a discontinuous change in housing prices.
Ge, J., Runeson, G., Leung, A.Y. & Tang, C. 2006, 'A cusp model of housing price in Hong Kong', 2006 HKU-NUS Symposium on Real Estate Research, HKU-NUS Symposium on Real Estate Research, Hong Kong University, Hong Kong, pp. 1-30.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
This paper develops a cusp model of housing prices for Hong Kong.
Ge, J., Runeson, G. & Leung, A.Y. 2005, 'Analysis of Discontinuous housing prices', Advancing Engineering, Management and Technology, Construction in the Twenty-first Century Conferences, CITC-III, Athens Greece, pp. 227-232.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Ge, J., Runeson, G. & Leung, A.Y. 2004, 'Prediction of Catastrophic Housing Price', 19th Earoph World Planning and Housing Congress and Australian National Housing Conference 2004, 19th Earoph World Planning and Housing Congress and Australian National Housing Conference 2004, Earoph, Melbourne, Australia, pp. 34-34.
In Hong Kong, private housing prices have experienced enormous increases during the 90s and a large decline since 1997. The irregular fluctuation of housing prices exhibit complicated nonlinear characteristics. Traditional methodology may not be able to provide an explanation or predict phenomena such as catastrophic housing price. This gives rise to the necessary application of theoretic research in the property market to employ theories from nonlinear science. The aim of the study is to explore a dynamic model of housing prices, i.e. a cusp catastrophic model for the Hong Kong housing market. Catastrophe examines and classifies phenomenon characterized by sudden shifts in behavior arising from small changes in circumstances. This study takes microeconomic and cobweb theory as subjects and applies cusp type catastrophe to explore nonlinear dynamic features in the housing price system. An equation to diagnose the discontinuous housing price is developed. The equation is tested through an empirical analysis using historical data in Hong Kong. It is recommended that the catastrophic housing price may be avoided by maintaining an adequate ratio of vacant units and total housing supply.
Ge, J., Runeson, G., Lam, K. & Chan, K. 2004, 'Forecasting Hong Kong Property Prices: Multiple Regression Method vs An Artificial Neural Network Approach', Proceedings of the 1st International Conference, World of Construction Project Management, World of Construction Project Management Conference, World of Construction Project Management, Toronto, Canada, pp. 79-86.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Hong Kong's residential property market has experienced significant changes over the last two decades. It is an interesting challenge for modeling the volatility of property prices. The aim of the study is to build forecasting models for forecasting the private residential property prices using macro data in Hong Kong. Both artificial neural network approach and multiple regression analysis are employed for comparing the forecasting results. Variables such as lagged property prices, household income and transaction volume are derived to test the models. The results show that both methods are valid and that the artificial neural network demonstrates a good prediction power with low forecasting error.
Ge, J., Runeson, G. & Lam, K. 2003, 'A Causal Model of Residential Housing Prices in Hong Kong', Proceedings of 2003 International Conference on Construction & Real Estate Management, International Conference on Construction and Real Estate Management, China Architecture & Building Press, Harbin, P.R. China, pp. 99-101.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
The traditional multiple regression analysis is widely acknowledged as a reliable technique and acceptable forecasting performance. This study examines the role of population growth, household income, and transaction volume in determining residential housing prices. A causal model is developed for Hong Kong using quarterly aggregated economic variables for the period of 1980:1 to 2000:3. In order to assess the adequacy of the multiple regression analysis to housing prices forecasting, the model is evaluated on its predictive accuracy on out-of-sample forecasts for the period of 2000:4 to 2002:4. It is found that the housing prices behavior of the current period is affected by the events of previous periods. The results also show that the causal model has a good predictive power and can explain the causal relationships between variables.
Higgins, D.M., Runeson, G., Chan, X. & Gajendran, T. 2003, 'Australia Country Report', The 9th ASIACONSTRUCT Conference, The 9th ASIACONSTRUCT Conference, University of Newcastle, University of Newcastle, Australia, pp. 1-35.
Higgins, D.M., Runeson, G., Chang, X. & Gajendran, T. 2003, 'Australian Construction: Directions, Causes and Trends', 9th AsiaConstruct Conference: Construction in Asia - Trends and Opportunities, AsiaConstruct Conference, University of Newcastle, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW, Australia, pp. 1-35.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Runeson, G., Ge, J. & Lam, K.C. 2003, 'A Causal Model of Residential Housing Prices in Hong Kong', 2003 International Conference on Construction & Real Estate Management, International Conference on Construction and Real Estate Management, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Harbin, China, pp. 99-101.
Ge, J., Runeson, G. & Lam, K. 2002, 'Forecasting Hong Kong House Prices: An Artificial Neural Network vs Log-linear Regression Approach', 2nd International Postgraduate Research Conference in the Built and Human Environment, International Postgraduate Research Conference in the Built and Human Environment, Blackwell Publishing, Salford, UK, pp. 81-95.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Modeling the volatility of property prices presents an interesting challenge for researchers. The purpose of the study is to compare an artificial neural network approach and log-linear regression model for predicting private residential property prices in Hong Kong using aggregate variables such real housing prices, real income, interest rate, demographic variables, and so on. The results show that the log-linear regression approach has less the standard error in forecasting. However, an artificial neural network (ANN) has an advantage in its ability to map complicated non-linear relationship between variables and it also has a good predict power.
Runeson, G., Teo, E. & Fang, D. National University of Singapore 2008, Monitoring Tool: Safety Culture Index - Final Report on Research Project R296-000-094-112, pp. 1-87, Singapore.