Professor James Brown is the ABS Professor of Official Statistics
James received his B.Sc. (Hons) in Mathematics with Actuarial Studies (1993) and completed his M.Sc. (with distinction) in Social Statistics (1996), both from the University of Southampton. He completed his Ph.D. (University of Southampton, 2000) in the area of census coverage assessment and adjustment, work which started 15 years of collaboration with the Office for National Statistics in the UK.
Since 1999 he has held positions as Lecturer, and Senior Lecturer at the University of Southampton with responsibility for MSc in Official Statistics; Senior Lecturer at the Institute of Education (University of London) with responsibility for quantitative methods teaching within the Doctoral School; Reader at the University of Southampton with responsibility for the Methodology Support Contract with the Office for National Statistics. He joined UTS in September 2013 with a role to develop links between the University and the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
James is a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society (Member and then Chair of the Official Statistics Committee, 2010 to 2012) and Member of the British Society for Population Studies. He also served as a member of the ESRC Grants Assessment Panel B in the UK prior to joining UTS.
James has previously held editorial positions as Associate Editor for JRSS(A) (2013-2015) and as a member of the Editorial Board for Population Studies (2013-2016). He is currently:
- Member of the Editorial Board, Statistics of Ukraine
- Member of the Editorial Board, International Statistical Review
Can supervise: YES
James has wide research interests (click here for Google Scholar profile) in the areas of Applied and Social Statistics. He has particular interests in:
- assessment of census coverage and quality (see the Quality Report for the 2012 Population and Housing Census of Rwanda HERE)
- design and analysis of surveys (particularly social and health related)
- use of surveys for policy evaluation (with experience working in China)
- application of multilevel models to the analysis of social data
Brown, JJ, Sexton, C, Abbott, O & Smith, PA 2019, 'The framework for estimating coverage in the 2011 Census of England and Wales: Combining dual-system estimation with ratio estimation', Statistical Journal of the IAOS, vol. 35, no. 3, pp. 481-499.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
© 2019 - IOS Press and the authors. Dual-system estimation is a well-established approach for estimating an unknown population size from two independent but imperfect counts of the population. In this paper we develop the estimation framework for using a coverage survey and population census as the two sources and combining with ratio estimation to produce a set of population estimates. Adjustments are developed to correct for a failure of the key assumptions of homogeneity and independence that under-pin dual-system estimation using an external count of the number of households. The issue of over-count within the census is also discussed and a bootstrap approach to variance estimation is proposed. A comprehensive set of simulation results are presented to support the decision to implement the framework to estimate the population following the 2011 Census of England and Wales; and the implementation to the estimation of census coverage in 2011 is discussed.
Saunders, C, Carter, DJ & Brown, J 2019, 'Primary care experience of older Australians with chronic illness', Australian Journal of Primary Health, vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 13-18.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
This large (>1000) cross-sectional study investigates patient-reported primary care experiences of older people with chronic illness. Previous research has found that only around half of patients with chronic illness receive optimal chronic illness care and outcomes in Australian general practice. A survey was administered via a double opt-in panel method to people aged fifty-five years and older who have one or more self-reported major chronic diseases (diabetes and/or chronic heart, kidney, lung, mental health and/or musculoskeletal conditions). Health professionals were found to be important to the majority of Australians surveyed. Well known chronic illness support resources such as care plans and recalls/reminders were reported to be wanting by up to fifty percent of respondents. Across all chronic illness groups less than forty-two percent of respondents reported the provision of information on community resources and twenty-five percent reported not having a sound understanding about their medications. Regular local surveys for older people with chronic illness would allow a timely understanding of primary care experiences, needs and preferences of this group, to support quality improvement and drive enhanced patient outcomes.
Sullivan, E, Ward, S, Zeki, R, Wayland, S, Sherwood, J, Wang, A, Worner, F, Kendall, S, Brown, J & Chang, S 2019, 'Recidivism, health and social functioning following release to the community of NSW prisoners with problematic drug use: study protocol of the population-based retrospective cohort study on the evaluation of the Connections Program.', BMJ open, vol. 9, no. 7, pp. e030546-e030546.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
INTRODUCTION:The rising rate of incarceration in Australia, driven by high reoffending, is a major public health problem. Problematic drug use is associated with increasing rates of reoffending and return to custody of individuals. Throughcare provides support to individuals during imprisonment through to post-release, improving both the transition to community and health outcomes post-incarceration. The aim of this study is to evaluate the Connections Programme (CP) that utilises a throughcare approach for release planning of people in prison with a history of problematic drug use. The study protocol is described. METHODS AND ANALYSIS:Population-based retrospective cohort study. The study will use record linkage of the Connections dataset with 10 other New South Wales (NSW) population datasets on offending, health service utilisation, opioid substitution therapy, pregnancy, birth and mortality. The study includes all patients who were eligible to participate in the CP between January 2008 and December 2015 stratified by patients who were offered CP and eligible patients who were not offered the programme (non-CP (NCP)). Propensity-score matching will be used to appropriately adjust for the observable differences between CP and NCP. The differences between two groups will be examined using appropriate univariate and multivariate analyses. A generalised estimating equation approach, which can deal with repeat outcomes for individuals will be used to examine recidivism, mortality and other health outcomes, including perinatal and infant outcomes. Survival analysis techniques will be used to examine the effect of the CP by sex and Indigenous status on the 'time-to' health-related outcomes after adjusting for potential confounders. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION:Ethical approval was received from the NSW Population and Health Services Research Ethics Committee, the Justice Health and Forensic Mental Health Network Human Research Ethics Committee, the Aboriginal Health and ...
Baffour, B, Silva, D, Veiga, A, Sexton, C & Brown, JJ 2018, 'Small area estimation strategy for the 2011 Census in England and Wales', Statistical Journal of the IAOS, vol. 34, no. 3, pp. 395-407.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
© 2018-IOS Press and the authors. All rights reserved. The use of model-based small area estimation for adjusting census results in the UK was first introduced in the 2001 Census. The aim was to obtain local level population estimates by age-sex groups, adjusted for the level of undercount that combined results from the Census and the Census Coverage Survey. A similar approach was adopted for the 2011 Census but with new features and this paper describes the work carried out to arrive at the chosen small area strategy. Simulation studies are used to investigate three proposed small area estimation methods: a local fixed effects model (the 2001 Census approach), a direct estimator and a synthetic estimator. The results indicate that both the synthetic and the local fixed effect models constitute good options to produce accurate and reliable local authority population estimates. A proposal is made to implement a small area estimation procedure that accommodates both the synthetic and local fixed models, as in some selected areas with differing local authority under-coverage rates a local fixed effects model may perform best. We examine this strategy under real census conditions based on the final results from the 2011 census.
Agius, A, Morelato, M, Moret, S, Chadwick, S, Jones, K, Epple, R, Brown, J & Roux, C 2018, 'Dataset of coded handwriting features for use in statistical modelling.', Data in brief, vol. 16, pp. 1010-1024.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
The data presented here is related to the article titled, "Using handwriting to infer a writer's country of origin for forensic intelligence purposes" (Agius et al., 2017) . This article reports original writer, spatial and construction characteristic data for thirty-seven English Australian writers and thirty-seven Vietnamese writers. All of these characteristics were coded and recorded in Microsoft Excel 2013 (version 15.31). The construction characteristics coded were only extracted from seven characters, which were: 'g', 'h', 'th', 'M', '0', '7' and '9'. The coded format of the writer, spatial and construction characteristics is made available in this Data in Brief in order to allow others to perform statistical analyses and modelling to investigate whether there is a relationship between the handwriting features and the nationality of the writer, and whether the two nationalities can be differentiated. Furthermore, to employ mathematical techniques that are capable of characterising the extracted features from each participant.
Agius, A, Morelato, M, Moret, S, Chadwick, S, Jones, K, Epple, R, Brown, J & Roux, C 2018, 'Using handwriting to infer a writer's country of origin for forensic intelligence purposes.', Forensic Science International, vol. 282, pp. 144-156.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Forensic science has traditionally focused the majority of its resources and objectives towards addressing Court-related questions. However, this view restricts the contribution of forensic science to one process and results in a loss of information as the investigative and intelligence roles are largely neglected. A forensic science discipline suffering from this imbalance is handwriting examination, which may be characterised as a time consuming and subjective process that is mostly carried out towards the end of the investigation for the purpose of judicial proceedings. Individual and habitual characteristics are the major handwriting features exploited, however alternate information concerning the author's native language could potentially be used as a key element in an intelligence framework. This research focussed on the detection of characteristics that differentiate Vietnamese and English Australian writers based on their English handwriting. The study began with the extraction of handwriting characteristics from the writing of people from the two populations. The data was analysed using a logistic regression model and a classification and regression tree (CRT). Each recognised four class characteristics that were capable of distinguishing between the two nationalities. The logistic regression and CRT models were both capable of correctly predicting 93% of cases. Their predictive capabilities were then tested and supported using blind exemplars in order to mirror casework settings. It appeared that when using their respective class characteristics, the two models were capable of differentiating English Australians from Vietnamese in the data set. This proof of concept research demonstrated the plausibility of exploiting this additional information from a handwriting trace and taking advantage of it in an intelligence-led framework.
Carter, DJ, Brown, J & Saunders, C 2018, 'The Patient's Voice: Australian Health Care Quality and Safety Regulation from the Perspective of the Public', Journal of Law and Medicine, vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 408-428.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
The quality and safety of health care is a topic of permanent debate in the field of health services policy and regulation. Often absent from this debate, however, are the views and values of the public. These are excluded by a dominant narrative of health care regulation which understands the regulation of quality and safety in health care as principally a technical and instrumental undertaking. This approach constrains the application of law and legal regulation, devaluing their normative and expressive function in this field. In-part as a form of corrective, we offer an analysis based on recent survey data, of the attitudes and perceptions held by the Australian public towards stakeholder responsibility for, and the regulation of, health care quality and safety.
Saunders, CM, Brown, J, Carter, D & Lapkin, S 2018, 'Chronic disease management support in Australian workplaces – low base, rising need', Health Promotion Journal of Australia, vol. 29, no. 3, pp. 257-264.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
This study investigates the current nature, levels and perceived need for workplace support among mature age Australian workers with chronic illness.
A cross‐sectional population survey was conducted via a double opt‐in panel sample of Australian workers aged 45 years and older with one or more of six major chronic diseases (diabetes and/or chronic heart, kidney, lung, mental health and/or musculoskeletal conditions).
Three hundred and fourteen respondents reported being in the workforce and having at least one of the chronic conditions under investigation, of which almost one third reported having more than one of the conditions. The findings reveal a number of considerable gaps in Australian workplace support for employees 45 years and older with chronic illness, including workplace flexibility, supportive policies and co‐worker support.
This research adds to a scarce existing literature base on workplace support for workers with chronic illness in Australia. Future research is needed to identify opportunities for effective public policy and implementation of workplace interventions to better support this cohort.
If timely progress is not made in this area, the projected increase in the aged population and scheduled public policy changes impacting retirement age will multiply potential adverse effects on the health of employees with chronic illness and Australia's labour market productivity.
Chipperfield, J, Brown, J & Bell, P 2017, 'Estimating the count error in the Australian census', Journal of Official Statistics, vol. 33, no. 1, pp. 43-59.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
© Statistics Sweden. In many countries, counts of people are a key factor in the allocation of government resources. However, it is well known that errors arise in Census counting of people (e.g., undercoverage due to missing people). Therefore, it is common for national statistical agencies to conduct one or more 'audit' surveys that are designed to estimate and remove systematic errors in Census counting. For example, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) conducts a single audit sample, called the Post Enumeration Survey (PES), shortly after each Australian Population Census. This article describes the estimator used by the ABS to estimate the count of people in Australia. Key features of this estimator are that it is unbiased when there is systematic measurement error in Census counting and when nonresponse to the PES is nonignorable.
Chipperfield, J, Brown, JJ & Watson, N 2017, 'The Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset: using record linkage to create a longitudinal sample from a series of cross-sections', Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, vol. 59, no. 1, pp. 1-16.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
© 2017 Australian Statistical Publishing Association Inc. Published by John Wiley & Sons Australia Pty Ltd. The Australian Bureau of Statistics is creating a longitudinal sample, called the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset (ACLD), by linking person records across its five-yearly Census of Population and Housing. This paper proposes a Multi-Panel framework for selecting and weighting records in the ACLD. This framework can be applied more generally to selecting longitudinal samples from a series of cross-sectional administrative files. The proposed framework avoids some significant limitations of the popular 'Top-Up' sampling approach to maintaining the cross-sectional and longitudinal representativeness of a sample over time.
Lee, JYL, Brown, JJ & Ryan, LM 2017, 'Sufficiency Revisited: Rethinking Statistical Algorithms in the Big Data Era', American Statistician, vol. 71, no. 3, pp. 202-208.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
© 2017 American Statistical Association. The big data era demands new statistical analysis paradigms, since traditional methods often break down when datasets are too large to fit on a single desktop computer. Divide and Recombine (D & R) is becoming a popular approach for big data analysis, where results are combined over subanalyses performed in separate data subsets. In this article, we consider situations where unit record data cannot be made available by data custodians due to privacy concerns, and explore the concept of statistical sufficiency and summary statistics for model fitting. The resulting approach represents a type of D & R strategy, which we refer to as summary statistics D & R; as opposed to the standard approach, which we refer to as horizontal D & R. We demonstrate the concept via an extended Gamma–Poisson model, where summary statistics are extracted from different databases and incorporated directly into the fitting algorithm without having to combine unit record data. By exploiting the natural hierarchy of data, our approach has major benefits in terms of privacy protection. Incorporating the proposed modelling framework into data extraction tools such as TableBuilder by the Australian Bureau of Statistics allows for potential analysis at a finer geographical level, which we illustrate with a multilevel analysis of the Australian unemployment data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
Qin, M, Brown, JJ, Padmadas, S, Li, B, Qi, J & Falkingham, J 2016, 'Gender Inequalities in Employment and Wage-earning among Economic Migrants in Chinese Cities', Demographic Research, vol. 34, pp. 175-202.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Carter, DJ, Brown, J & Rahmani, A 2016, 'Reading the High Court at a Distance: Topic Modelling the Legal Subject Matter And Judicial Activity of the High Court of Australia, 1903–2015', University of New South Wales Law Journal, vol. 39, no. 4, pp. 1300-1354.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
In this article we apply the method of quantitative textual analysis known as 'topic modelling' to a significant Australian legal text corpus: that of judgments of the High Court of Australia from 1903 to 2015. The High Court of Australia has been a perennial topic for study and analysis. It is the highest court in the Australian judicial hierarchy and the site of many of the most significant contests of legal doctrine and practice in Australian history. We find that the topic models generated by this research enable the development of a range of unique, novel and robust observations of the High Court's judicial workload and the shifting make-up of its legal subject matter over time. Moreover, this article reveals the feasibility and value of topic modelling as a method for the study of legal texts and practices that might fruitfully complement other methods of legal scholarship.
Brown, JJ 2015, 'Future Models for Population Census: Can We Have an Administrative Based Census without a Population Register?', Statistics of Ukraine, vol. 2015, no. 3, pp. 45-50.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
MASLOVSKAYA, O, Brown, JJ, SMITH, PW & PADMADAS, SS 2014, 'HIV Awareness In China Among Women Of Reproductive Age (1997-2005): A Decomposition Analysis', Journal of Biosocial Science, vol. 46, no. 2, pp. 178-198.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Summary HIV prevalence in China is less than one per cent, but the absolute number of people living with HIV/AIDS is large and growing. Given the limited scope of any potential cure for HIV, prevention plays a crucial role in controlling the epidemic. This paper examines the evolution of HIV awareness among women in China between 1997 and 2005. A regression decomposition analysis technique was used to disentangle the two main components driving a change in HIV awareness. The results show that HIV awareness has increased over time in China. The gaps between groups are narrowing over time and lower HIV awareness groups are catching up with the higher awareness groups. In 2005 education remained one of the main factors associated with HIV awareness, the other main factors being ethnicity, exposure to TV and newspapers. The increases in HIV awareness observed between 1997 and 2001 are similar between groups of women with different demographic characteristics, whereas between 2003 and 2005 increases are more pronounced among specific groups of women such as women from rural areas, women from Western parts of the country, women who belong to ethnic minorities and those with no education or with only primary education. The results suggest that the main driver of the observed change in HIV awareness over time in China is change in the environment such as in political commitment, interventions and campaigns rather than change in population structure.
Veiga, A, Smith, P & Brown, JJ 2014, 'The use of sample weights in multivariate multilevel models with an application to income data collected by using a rotating panel survey', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics, vol. 63, no. 1, pp. 65-84.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Longitudinal data from labour force surveys permit the investigation of income dynamics at the individual level. However, the data often originate from surveys with a complex multistage sampling scheme. In addition, the hierarchical structure of the data that is imposed by the different stages of the sampling scheme often represents the natural grouping in the population. Motivated by how income dynamics differ between the formal and informal sectors of the Brazilian economy and the data structure of the Brazilian Labour Force Survey, we extend the probability-weighted iterative generalized least squares estimation method. Our method is used to fit multivariate multilevel models to the Brazilian Labour Force Survey data where the covariance structure between occasions at the individual level is modelled. We conclude that there are significant income differentials and that incorporating the weights in the parameter estimation has some effect on the estimated coefficiants and standard errors.
Baffour, B, Brown, JJ & Smith, P 2013, 'An investigation of triple system eliminators in censuses', Statistical Journal of the IAOS, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 53-68.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
The value of a census cannot be overstated, given that no other data resource provided such detailed information about the population. Further, censuses are often the only historical data source to map out chenge over time due to the consistency of questions asked. However, it is often the most expensive undertaking- other than going to war- that a country embarks on. Countries are thus seeking more cost-effective alternatives. This paper details some exploratory research into one such alternative, based on capture-recapture methods. Capture recapture methods have been used for population estimation for decades, but the focus has been on dual system estimation. Dual system measurement of the population has been criticised for its reliance on the independence assumption between the two systems. This asumption is untestable, and failure introduces bias into the estimates of the population. The most logical improvement of dual system estimation is triple system estimation. In this paper, a simulation study is carried out to compare the perforamance of different dual and triple system estimators of the population size under various dependency scenarios. Performance is explored through both the bias and variability. The study shows that the dual system estimator copes well with dependence, provided the coverage of both lists are reasonably high. In addition, although the triple system estimators yield less biased estimates of the population, the dual system estimator is shown to be robust enough to cope with low levels of dependence.
Sonuga-Barke, EJS, Cartwright, KL, Thompson, MJ, Brown, J, Bitsakou, P, Daley, D, Gramzow, RH, Psychogiou, L & Simonoff, E 2013, 'Family Characteristics, Expressed Emotion, and Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder', JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF CHILD AND ADOLESCENT PSYCHIATRY, vol. 52, no. 5, pp. 547-548.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Brown, JJ & Honchar, O 2012, 'Design and Estimation of Surveys to Measure Data Quality Aspects of Administrative Data', Lithuanian Journal of Statistics, vol. 51, no. 1, pp. 5-16.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
National Statistics Institutes (NSIs) have been increasingly seeking to replace or enhance traditional survey-based data sources with administrative data sources; with the aim to improve overall quality in the absence of a definitive register of the population. The Beyond 2011 Census Programme in England and Wales is an example of looking to replace a traditional census with administrative data collected for another purpose by a different organisation, when there is no definitive register as a starting point. There are also similar projects across NSIs within the area of business surveys looking to use administrative sources to reduce cost and burden. In this paper we start with considering all aspects of a quality framework for administrative data and then focus on the elements relevant to data quality such as accuracy and coherence. We fit these concepts into the framework for total survey error highlighting the components an NSI needs to measure to produce estimates based on the administrative data. We then explore the use of both dependent and independent quality surveys to adjust the administrative data for `measurement and `coverage aspects to improve the quality of estimates produced from the administrative data.
Johnson, FA, Chandra, H, Brown, JJ & PADMADAS, SS 2012, 'Small Area Estimation for Policy Development: A Case Study of Child Undernutrition in Ghana', Journal of the Indian Society of Agricultural Statistics, vol. 66, no. 1, pp. 171-186.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
The demand for Small (local-level) Area Statistics has increased tremendously, particularly in countries where a decentralised approach to governance and service provision has been adopted. Most of these countries lack local-level statistics to aid policy decisions and planning. Sample surveys such as the Demographic and Health Survey provide a wide range of invaluable data at the national and regional level but cannot be used directly to produce reliable district-level estimates due to small smaple sizes. The paper illustrates the application of Small Area Estimation (SAE) techniques to derive model-based district-level estimates of child undernutrition in Ghana linking data from the 2003 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey (GDHS) and the 2000 Ghana Population and Housing Census (GPHC). The diagnostics measures show that the model-based estimates are robust when compared to the direct surevey estimates. The model-based estimates reveal considerable heterogeneity in the prevalence of undernutrition, with children living in the Northern part of the country being most disadvantaged. The estimates clearly highlight the districts where targeted child health interventions need to be strengthened. In countries where small area statistics are non-existent, SAE techniques could be crucila for designing effective policies and strengthening local-level governance.
We have calculated two new sets of weights applicable to the General Household Survey (GHS) from 1979 to 2007. One of these is for use with any general analysis of GHS topics and the second is designed for analyses of data collected in the Family Information section. The methods used follow closely those employed by ONS from 1996 onwards. The performance of the weights is assessed in estimating the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 1971-2007, an aggregate measure of fertility for which reliable figures are available at national level from vital registration statistics. Our weights improve the GHS estimates, reducing bias both in the TFR and in age-specific fertility rates.
Brown, JJ, Abbott, O & Smith, PA 2011, 'Design of the 2001 and 2011 Census Coverage Surveys for England and Wales', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, vol. 174, no. 4, pp. 881-906.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
In many countries, a key component of measuring census coverage is a post-enumeration survey. In the 2001 censuses of the UK this was called the Census Coverage Survey. This paper reviews the design of the 2001 Census Coverage Survey and develops the design for the survey in 2011, taking advantage of the experience of 2001 and the data that were generated by the 2001 process. This leads to a proposed design that is less clustered than in 2001 and has an allocation that is more skewed towards areas where coverage in the 2011 census is expected to be lowest. The updated design balances optimal allocation against maintaining a sufficient sample across all areas.
Dregan, A, Brown, JJ & Armstrong, D 2011, 'Do adult emotional and behavioural outcomes vary as a function of diverse childhood experiences of the public care system?', Psychological Medicine, vol. 41, pp. 2213-2220.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Background. Longitudinal data from the 1970 British Cohort Survey were used to examine the long-term adult outcomes of those who, as children, were placed in public care. Method. Multivariate logistic estimation models were used to determine whether public care and placement patterns were associated with adult psychosocial outcomes. Seven emotional and behavioural outcomes measured at age 30 years were considered: depression, life dissatisfaction, self-efficacy, alcohol problems, smoking, drug abuse and criminal convictions. Results. The analyses revealed a significant association between public care status and adult maladjustment on depression [odds ratio (OR) 1.74], life dissatisfaction (OR 1.45), low self-efficacy (OR 1.95), smoking (OR 1.70) and criminal convictions (OR 2.13). Conclusions. Overall, the present study findings suggest that there are enduring influences of a childhood admission to public care on emotional and behavioural adjustment from birth to adulthood. Some of the associations with childhood public care were relatively strong, particularly with respect to depression, self-efficacy and criminal convictions.
Large, A, Brown, JJ, Abbott, O & Taylor, A 2011, 'Estimating and Correcting for Over-count in the 2011 Census', Survey Methodology Bulletin, vol. 69, pp. 35-49.
This paper decscribes the proposed methodology for estimating and adjusting for over-count if it is found to be a significant issue in the 2011 Census. An approach to estimate over-count is developed, together with some indication of the sampling approach to be used. This estimated over-count is then used to develop an adjustment to the undercount estimation for the Census. This provides an adjustment of the Census estimates for undercount that is 'net' of estimated over-count. A simulation study is presented in order to verify the methodology and provide evidence to justify the implementation for the 2011 Census.
Brown, JJ, Bohua, L & Padmadas, S 2010, 'A multilevel analysis of the effects of a reproductive health programme that encouraged informed choice of contraceptive method rather than use of officially preferred methods, China 2003-2005', Population Studies: a journal of demography, vol. 64, no. 2, pp. 105-115.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Historically, the Chinese government's family planning (FP) policy has emphasized post-partum IUD use after first birth and sterilization after subsequent births. Was the influence of this policy-driven programme on women's contraceptive choices weakened
Johnson, FA, Chandra, H, Brown, JJ & PADMADAS, SS 2010, 'District-level Estimates of Institutional Births in Ghana: Application of Small Area Estimation Technique Using Census and DHS Data', Journal of Official Statistics, vol. 26, no. 2, pp. 341-359.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
The Ghana Health Service functions under a decentralised approach; however, the lack of district level statistics implies that local authorities are faced with difficulties in making policy decisions without relevant statistics. The Ghanain Demographic and Health Surveys provide a range of invaluable data at the regional/national level; they cannot be used directly to produce reliable district-level estimates due to small sample sizes. This article uses small area estimation techniques to derive model-based district-level estimates of institutional births in Ghana by linking data from the 2003 GDHS and the 2000 Population and Housing Census. The models indicate considerable variability in the estimates, with institutional births ranging between 7% and 27% in the districts of the Northern region, compared to 78% and 85% in the districts of the Greater Accra Region. The diagnostic measures indicate that the model-based estimates are reliable and representative of the district to which they belong.
Johnson, F, Padmadas, S & Brown, JJ 2009, 'On the Spatial Inequalities of Institutional Versus Home Births in Ghana: A Multilevel Analysis', Journal of Community Health, vol. 34, no. 1, pp. 64-72.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Spatial inequalities related to the choice of delivery care have not been studied systematically in Sub-Saharan Africa where maternal and perinatal health outcomes continue to worsen despite a range of safe motherhood interventions. Using retrospective d
Maslovskaya, O, Brown, JJ & Padmadas, S 2009, 'Disentangling the complex association between female genital cutting and HIV among Kenyan women', Journal of Biosocial Science, vol. 41, no. 6, pp. 815-830.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Female genital cutting (FGC) is a widespread cultural practice in Africa and the Middle East, with a number of potential adverse health consequences for women. It was hypothesized by Kun (1997) that FGC increases the risk of HIV transmission through a nu
Matthews, Z, PADMADAS, SS, Hutter, I, McEachran, J & Brown, JJ 2009, 'Does early childbearing and a sterilization-focused family planning programme in India fuel population growth?', Demographic Research, vol. 20, pp. 693-720.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Recent stagnation in the reduction of infant mortality in India can arguably be attributed to early child bearing practices and the lack of progress in lengthening birth intervals. Meanwhile, family planning efforts have been particularly successful in the southern states such as Andhra Pradesh, although family limitation is almost exclusively by means of sterilisation at increasingly younger ages. This paper examines the population impact of the unprecedented convergence of early childbearing trajectories in India and quantifies the potential implications stemming from the neglect of strategies that encourage delaying and spacing of births. The effects of adopting a `later, longer and fewer family planning strategy are compared with the continuation of fertility concentrated in the younger age groups. Results from the cohort component population projections suggest that a policy encouraging later marriage and birth spacing would achieve a future total population which is about 52 million less in 2050 than if the current early fertility trajectory is continued.
Gereltuya, A, Falkingham, J & Brown, JJ 2007, 'Determinants of current contraceptive use and method choice in Mongolia', Journal of Biosocial Science, vol. 39, no. 6, pp. 801-817.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
This study examines the determinants of current contraceptive use and method choice in Mongolia using data from the 1998 Mongolian Reproductive Health Survey and 2000 Mongolian Population and Housing Census. Since 1976, access to modern contraceptives ha
Sufang, G, PADMADAS, SS, Fengmin, Z, Brown, JJ & Stones, RW 2007, 'Delivery settings and caesarean section rates in China', Bulletin of the World Health Organisation, vol. 80, no. 7, pp. 755-762.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
Objective: To quantify the influence of increasing use of health-care services on rising rates of caesarean section in China. Methods: We used data from a population-based survey conducted by the United Nations Population Fund during September 2003 in 30 selected counties in three regions of China. The study sample (derived from birth history schedule) consisted of 3803 births to mothers aged less than 40 years between 1993 and 2002. Multiple logistic regression models were used to estimate the effect of health-care factors on the odds of a caesarean section, controlling for time and selected variables. Findings: Institutional births increased from 53.5% in 1993-1994 to 82.2% in 2001-2002, while the corresponding increase in rates of caesarean section was driven by the increase in births within institutions. The adjusted odds of a caesarean section were 4.6 times (95% confidence interval, CI: 3.4-11.8) higher for recent births. The adjusted odds were also significantly higher for mothers who had at least one antenatal ultrasound test. Rates of caesarean section in secondary-level facilities markedly increased over the last decade to the same levels as in major hospitals (P<0.001). Conclusion: The upsurge in rates of births by caesarean section in this population cannot be fully explained by increases in institutional births alone, but is likely to be driven by medical practice within secondary-level hospitals and women's demand for the procedure.
Sufang, G, Padmadas, SS, Fengmin, Z, Brown, JJ & Stones, RW 2007, 'Delivery settings and caesarean section rates in China.', Bulletin of the World Health Organization, vol. 85, no. 10, pp. 755-762.View/Download from: Publisher's site
OBJECTIVE:To quantify the influence of increasing use of health-care services on rising rates of caesarean section in China. METHODS:We used data from a population-based survey conducted by the United Nations Population Fund during September 2003 in 30 selected counties in three regions of China. The study sample (derived from birth history schedule) consisted of 3803 births to mothers aged less than 40 years between 1993 and 2002. Multiple logistic regression models were used to estimate the effect of health-care factors on the odds of a caesarean section, controlling for time and selected variables. FINDINGS:Institutional births increased from 53.5% in 1993-1994 to 82.2% in 2001-2002, while the corresponding increase in births by caesarean section was from 8.9% to 24.8%, respectively. Decomposition analysis showed that 69% of the increase in rates of caesarean section was driven by the increase in births within institutions. The adjusted odds of a caesarean section were 4.6 times (95% confidence interval, CI: 3.4-11.8) higher for recent births. The adjusted odds were also significantly higher for mothers who had at least one antenatal ultrasound test. Rates of caesarean section in secondary-level facilities markedly increased over the last decade to the same levels as in major hospitals (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION:The upsurge in rates of births by caesarean section in this population cannot be fully explained by increases in institutional births alone, but is likely to be driven by medical practice within secondary-level hospitals and women's demand for the procedure.
Brown, JJ, Abbott, O & Diamond, I 2006, 'Dependence in the 2001 one-number census project', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, vol. 169, no. 4, pp. 883-902.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
The one-number census approach was developed by the Office for National Statistics to adjust the counts from the 2001 census of England and Wales for undernumeration. The method is underpinned by an assumption of independence between the count of the population that was given by the 2001 census and the count that was given by the Census Coverage Survey. Some dependence was, however, detected, and the paper describes the strategy that was used to measure dependence and to adjust the 2001 census population estimates.
Stones, R, Padmadas, S, Guo, S, Brown, JJ, Zhao, F & Li, B 2006, 'Dyspareunia, Urinary Sensory Symptoms, and Incontinence Among Young Chinese Women', Archives of Sexual Behavior: an interdisciplinary research journal, vol. 35, no. 5, pp. 561-567.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
This study examined the prevalence of dyspareunia, urinary sensory symptoms, and urinary incontinence and explored their associations among sexually active Chinese women aged 1534 years. Data from 3,150 women were analyzed from a survey undertaken during 2003 in 30 counties in China as part of the United Nations Population Fund Country Program. The overall prevalence of dyspareunia was 4.7%. Urinary pain, burning or frequency was reported by 8.5%, 6.2% reported urinary incontinence, and 2.3% reported both sets of urinary symptoms. The prevalence of urinary incontinence, both alone and in combination with sensory symptoms, increased in a linear manner with age. Dyspareunia was associated with early sexual debut, primary level of education, and membership of minority ethnic communities. Urinary sensory symptoms and incontinence were more common among those reporting early sexual debut, those with less schooling, and women engaged in agricultural and manual unskilled occupations. Urinary incontinence was more common among women who had had a previous vaginal delivery compared to nulliparous women. Dyspareunia was strongly associated with the presence of urinary symptoms, particularly among those with both sensory symptoms and incontinence (26.8%). Nearly a quarter of women who had dyspareunia had sought treatment but fewer had done so for urinary incontinence. Dyspareunia and urinary symptoms show distinct but overlapping patterns of association with demographic variables. The findings indicate unmet need for assessment and advice about these symptoms in womens reproductive health programs.
Griffiths, PL, Brown, JJ & Smith, P 2004, 'A comparison of univariate and multivariate multilevel models for repeated measure use of antenatal care in Uttar Pradesh', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, vol. 164, no. 4, pp. 597-611.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
We compare two different multilevel modelling approaches to the analysis of repeated measures data to assess the effect of mother level characteristics on women's use of prenatal care services in Uttar Pradesh, India. We apply univariate multilevel models to our data and find that the model assumptions are severely violated and the parameter estimates are not stable, particulalrly for the mother level random effect. To overcome this we apply a multivariate multilevel model. The correlation structure shows that, once the decision has been made regarding use of antenatal care by the mother for her first observed birth in the data, she does not tend to change this decision for higher order births.
Steele, F, Brown, JJ & Chambers, R 2002, 'A controlled donor imputation system for a one-number census', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, vol. 165, no. 3, pp. 495-522.View/Download from: UTS OPUS or Publisher's site
The 2001 UK census was a one-number census. An integral part of such a process has been the creation of a transport census debate that has been adjusted for the undernumeration in the 2001 census. The methodology for creating this database is based on a controlled donor imputation system that imputes individuals and households estimated to have been missed in the census. This paper describes this methodology and provided results from a statistical assessment of its performance using data that realistically simulate the census process.
Brown, JJ, Diamond, I, CL, R, Buckner, LJ & Teague, AD 1999, 'A methodological strategy for a one-number census in the UK', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, vol. 162, no. 2, pp. 247-257.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
As a result of lessons learnt from the 1991 census, a research programme was set up to seek improvements in census methodology. Underenumeration has been placed top of the agenda in this programme, and every effort is being made to achieve as high a coverage as possible in the 2001 census. In recognition, however, that 100% coverage will never be achieved, the one- number census (ONC) project was established to measure the degree of underenumeration in the 2001 census and, if possible, to adjust fully the outputs from the census for that undercount. A key component of this adjustment process is a census coverage survey (CCS). This paper presents an overview of the ONC project, focusing on the design and analysis methodology for the CCS. It also presents results that allow the reader to evaluate the robustness of this methodology.
Brown, JJ & Diamond, I 1999, 'Population estimates in small areas: a brief overview' in Arnold, R, Elliott, P, Wakefield, J & Quinn, M (eds), Population Counts in Small Areas: Implications for Studies of Environment and Health - Proceedings, Office for National Statistics, London, pp. 5-9.
Introduction. The use of small area estimation techniques has been one of the growing areas of statistics. Increasingly, users require information for small areas and usually this is not readily available from the standard sources without further work. The methods used in that further work are the main subject of these proceedings. Before considering the methods for making small area population estimates, there are two key points that should be made clear. The first is that it is not advisable to make your own small area population estimates unless it is really necessary. The personal experience of one of the authors is that small estimation is very time consuming and often other organisations have information and local knowledge available to them that mean they are in a better position to make such estimates. The second point is to know the purpose for which the estimates are needed. This will help determine whether the estimates already available are appropraite. It will also have an impact on issues regarding accuracy and the level at whcih estimates are required. This paper presents and overview of what can be done to estimate populations in small areas as well as what is being done already. We do not present the theoretical detail surrounding the methods, as this is presented in the later papers. Instead, we look at some of the issues involved with making small area population estimates. We also look at some of the more common methods that are currently being used by producers of small area statistics and consider the strengths and weaknesses of the methods.
Kingkam, P, Visser, S, Brown, J, Woodcock, S, Baird, T, Jackson, D & Morgan, L 2017, 'The argument for a bronchiectasis specific AR-DRG: Analysis of hospital discharge data (2012-2016) for patients registered to the Australian Bronchiectasis Registry', RESPIROLOGY, 22nd Congress of the APSR, WILEY, Sydney, pp. 206-207.View/Download from: Publisher's site
Brown, JJ, Beh, EJ & Hudson, IL 2015, 'Can we use the approaches of ecological inference to learn about the potential for dependence bias in dualsystem estimation? An application to cancer registration data', 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, MODELLING & SIMULATION SOC AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND INC, Gold Coast, Australia, pp. 1675-1681.View/Download from: UTS OPUS
Cook, L 2004, 'Discussion on the meeting on 'The 2001 census and beyond'', JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY, WILEY, pp. 229-248.View/Download from: Publisher's site
The regulation of health care services has a range of goals. Improving the safety and quality of healthcare is one of them. However, there is a lack of good quality evidence about what members of the Australian community believe and expect in relation to the regulation of healthcare safety. To elicit the Australian public's voice on issues related to the governance of health care quality and safety, we developed a survey tool that reflected these core elements of Australian approach to regulating health care. This Policy Brief describes the results of the survey, highlighting the important areas of difference between the views of the community and existing regulatory frameworks. In summary, the general public expect a graduated approach to stakeholder responsibility, monitoring and regulatory responses to failures in the quality and safety of healthcare. However, Reliance on decentralised accreditation-centric quality improvement mechanisms is not sufficient. The community expects more centralised oversight, including strict norm-referenced monitoring and performance testing – including in-person 'spot inspections', rather than reliance on self-monitoring and reporting.
Overview. The Analysis, Reserach and knowledge management Directorate (ARK) in the UK Border Agency commissioned Ipsos MORI and the Institute of Education to undertake a feasibility study for a large-scale face-to-face survey of migrants in the UK. The purpose of the feasibility study was to inform the design of a survey of migrants, looking at how to design and interview statistically robust sample and the appropriate questions to adopt such a survey. The feasibility study involved: 1. workshops with the UK Border Agency and other stakeholders to identify survey requirements; 2. the development of a definition of 'migrant' for use in the survey 3. the development of a sample design; 4. testing fieldwork recruitment and data collection methods to be used; and 5. the development of a questionnaire, including cognitive testing in several languages This report focuses on the sampling and field methods aspects of the feasibility study. A separate technical report provides details on other issues, including question development. To inform the development of the survey methodology and the survey questionnaire discussion groups and depth interviews were undertaken with representatives of economic migrant communities and individuals working with refugees and asylum seekers in England and Scotland. Key issues surrounding survey objectives, terminology, and field methods were identified. A useable survey population definition was developed after stakeholder consultaion such that, for the purpose of this study: 'A migrant is defined as someone who arrived in the UK in 1990 or later, who was a non-UK national on entry, whose usual place of residence prior to entry was not in the UK, and who has lived in the country for at least three months (one month if an asylum seeker or refugee).' It was concluded that different types of migrants will require different sampling and screening methods. Asylum sekers could be sampled directly from administrative records but other migra...
Reyner, LA, Flatley, D & Brown, JJ Department for Transport 2006, Effectiveness of Motorway Services Areas in Reducing Fatigue-related and other Accidents, pp. 1-80, London.
INTRODUCTION 'Motorway service stations exist to meet a road safety need by giving drivers somewhere to stop and rest' Lord Whitty. From analyses of road crash investigation reports on a total of over 2,000 roadtraffic collision (RTC) files obtained from UK police forces, we have found that sleepiness is a major cause of serious accidents on monotonous roads in Great Britain, especially motorways. Moreover, compared with RTCs as a whole, we have found that sleep-related crashes (SRCs) are more likely to result in death or serious injury. We have also shown that STATS19 has not been a reliable source of information on SRCs, and we have developed other techniques for identifying them. These techniques are now adopted by over half the police forces and have been successfully 'tested' in many court cases involving death by dangerous driving. Our analyses of SRCs, on behalf of the Department for Transport (DfT), have been the basis of road-crash audits that have also examined the influence of: time of day, day of week, type of driver, road lighting versus no lighting, road-traffic density (e.g. 'Sleep related vehicle accidents on sections of selected trunk roads and motorways in the UK, 1995-1998' - DfT Road Safety Report No. 22, 2001). In these respects, we have found, for example, that in relation to traffic flow rates, proportionately many more SRCs happen during the hours of midnight to 0600h and, typically, drivers causing SRCs are men, usually aged under 30 years. We have also conducted laboratory studies of the processes of falling asleep at the wheel using a realistic, interactive and fully instrumented driving simulator that enables us to monitor and analyse automatically a variety of driving behaviours, as well as the electroencephalographic (EEG) status of the driver. We have used this system to evaluate practical methods that the driver can utilise to overcome sleepiness (findings from which are incorporated in the Highway Code), and we have shown that dri...
Wikeley, N, Barnett, S, Brown, JJ, Davis, G, Diamond, I, Draper, T & Smith, P The Charlesworth Group 2001, National Survey of Child Support Clients, pp. 1-196, Huddersfield, United Kingdom.
Introduction- Background. The child support scheme was introduced in April 1993 under the auspices of the Child Support Act 1991. Despite a series of incremental adjustments to the scheme in its early years, it became widely recognised that the system had failed to acheive its original goals and in particular to improve financial support for children. A series of major reforms to the child support system are being implemented (mostly with effect from April 2002) as a result of the Child Support, Pensions and Social Security Act 2000. The goals of the reforms include making the system accessible, comprehensible and responsive to the parents concerned. Other objectives include increasing compliance and the administrative efficiency of the child support scheme.
Brown, JJ & Beaujouan, E 2013, 'Review of the Rolling Census Approach: and other survey-based options', ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Papers.
Within Australia, he has links with the Australian Bureau of Statistics working in the area of analysis of linked data.