Mathematics Colloquium: Herbert Huppert
Topic: How to get it right the first time?
How can you obtain the best decision from a group of so called ‘experts’ about future events such as a natural disaster or stock market crash? Would you trust a family member’s opinion over a highly cited scientist, an economist, a successful entrepreneur, a military or political leader, or a High Court judge? Or would you trust them all equally? Or none at all? Using considerable experience and historical data, we have developed a technique known as ‘Expert Elicitation’. The technique assesses the abilities and reliability of each individual expert using a formula and taking into account responses to questions about the future. We will discuss how this technique has been successfully used in predictions for volcanic eruptions, dam failures, monetary policy, military engagements, future sea level rise, and other issues that confront decision makers.
About the speaker
Herbert Huppert (University of Cambridge)
Professor Herbert Huppert FRS is Emeritus Professor of Theoretical Geophysics in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge. His theoretical and laboratory based work has improved our understanding of the behaviour of fluids in and on the Earth’s surface, and his work on convective systems has been crucial for an improved comprehension of our planet’s response to a changing climate. Often in demand as a scientific authority, Herbert served as Chair of a Royal Society working group on bioterrorism, which prepared a report for the BritishGovernment, a European Academies working group on Carbon Capture and Storage, which prepared a report for the European Parliament and has acted as an adviser to numerous other government bodies. He has received many awards for his work, including the Bakerian Lectureship of the Royal Society, a Leverhulme Emeritus Fellowship and The Australian Academy’s Selby Public Lectureship 2019.