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Dr Steve Mohr


Dr Steve Mohr is a Senior Research Consultant, specialising in data analysis, forecasting resource depletion, analytical and numerical modeling, and the evaluation of energy and water savings pilot programs. Steve has a PhD in fossil fuel supply, and has used his Mathematic and Engineering skills to developed Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo) which is capable of replicating supply and demand of resources extracted from mining methods and oil and gas from fields. Since working at ISF Steve made publicly available a version of the model:  GeRS-DeMo - or Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model

Before joining the Institute, Steve worked for Prof. Geoffrey Evans at the University of Newcastle investigating future phosphorus production for the world by country using GeRS-DeMo. Steve also worked with Dr Gavin Mudd at Monash University as part of the Peak Minerals Cluster investigating world lithium supply and demand, as well as gold and nickel production in the Goldfield Esperance region of Western Australia.

For the past 18 months Steve has been primarily focused on evaluating the energy and/or water savings from pilot programs. In particular he has worked on evaluation projects such as the OEH Home Power Savings Program, Endeavour Energy efficiency programs, ACEW AGL and Hunter Water Save Water Initiatives. A key component of this evaluation work is collating large datasets of either customer billing data or smart meter data from a range of sources and critically analysing the compiled datasets to glean statistically significant information. Steve has specific experience with smart meter data analysis, having completed projects with Hunter Water Corp and Endeavour Energy analysing smart meter data consumption data. Steve is currently evaluating smart meter consumption for Power and Water Corp. Steve has also assisted in refining existing water and energy models and associated analysis and designing new resource models.
Steve is passionate about phosphorus recovery research. He is currently working under Dr Dana Cordell to develop a model of phosphorus supplies and demand. Steve has also previously worked for Dr Gavin Mudd at Monash University as part of the Peak Minerals Cluster investigating world lithium supply and demand, as well as gold and nickel production in the Goldfield Esperance region of Western Australia.

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Associate of the Institute, Institute for Sustainable Futures
+61 2 9514 9041
+61 2 9514 4941


Giurco, D., Mohr, S.H., Fyfe, J., Rickwood, P., Teng, M.L. & Franklin, J. 2013, 'Modelling bounce-back in water consumption post-drought', Proceedings of the 5th National Water Efficiency Conference, 5th National Water Efficiency Conference, Australian Water Association (AWA), Sydney, pp. 1-5.
Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G. 2012, 'The future of unconventional oil (slides)', The 10th Annual ASPO Conference:, Vienna, Austria.
Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G. 2012, 'The future of unconventional oil (video)', The 10th Annual APSO Conference, Vienna, Austria.
Mohr, S.H. 2012, 'Forecasting fossil fuels', Australian Academy of Science, Australian Frontiers of Science Conference: Science for a Green Economy, Sydney, Australia.

Journal articles

Mohr, S. & Ward, J. 2014, 'Helium Production and Possible Projection', Minerals, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 130-144.
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Mohr, S., Giurco, D., Yellishetty, M., Ward, J. & Mudd, G. 2014, 'Projection of Iron Ore Production', Natural Resources Research.
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A comprehensive country-by-country projection of world iron ore production is presented along with alternative scenarios and a sensitivity analysis. The supply-driven modelling approach follows Mohr (Projection of world fossil fuel production with supply and demand interactions, PhD Thesis, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6782, 2010) using an ultimately recoverable resource of 346 Gt of iron ore. Production is estimated to have a choppy plateau starting in 2017 until 2050 after which production rapidly declines. The undulating plateau is due to Chinese iron ore production peaking earlier followed by Australia and Brazil in turn. Alternative scenarios indicate that the model is sensitive to increases in Australian and Brazilian resources, and that African iron ore production can shift the peak date only if the African Ultimately Recoverable Resources (URR) is 5 times larger than the estimate used. Changes to the demand for iron ore driven by substitution or recycling are not modelled. The relatively near-term peak in iron ore supply is likely to create a global challenge to manufacturing and construction and ultimately the world economy.
Yellishetty, M., Mudd, G.M., Giurco, D., Mason, L. & Mohr, S. 2013, 'Iron ore in Australia - Too much or too hard?', AusIMM Bulletin, no. 3.
Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G. 2013, 'Projections of future Phosphorus production (paper)', Philica: where ideas are free, vol. Article380.
Mason, L., Mohr, S., Zeibots, M. & Giurco, D. 2011, 'Limits to cheap oil - Impact on mining', AusIMM Bulletin, no. 4, pp. 40-42.
The price of oil also affects the demand for metals and minerals and hence the ability of mining companies to sell resources at a profit. The mining sector is a major consumer of oil products and hence the cost of producing metals and minerals is sensitive to oil prices. Specifically, oil based diesel is mixed with ammonium nitrate as the explosives commonly used in the mining industry, diesel trucks, and shovels are used to collect the ore and transport the ore to the primary processing facilities typically on the mine site. Currently, Australia imports from Malaysia and Vietnam (DRET 2010), however both of these countries reached peak oil production in 2004 and are now declining. The world is dependent on a small number of countries to ensure world oil production is adequate and less is being traded on the open market.


Ellem, G., Giurco, D., Ward, J. & Mohr, S. 2015, 'Four ways to boost Australia's economy that can help the climate'.


Fyfe, J., McKibbin, J.L., Mohr, S., Madden, B., Turner, A. & Ege, C. 2015, Evaluation of the Environmental Effects of the WELS Scheme, pp. 1-103, Sydney, Australia.
The Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF) at the University of Technology Sydney, undertook a review of the environmental effects of the Water Efficiency Labelling and Standards (WELS) Scheme on behalf of the Australian Government Department of the Environment. The review analysed several facets of the Scheme, including: * the interactions between WELS and other urban water policies * changes in the products registered and sold since the commencement of WELS * changes in water consumption since the commencement of WELS * energy, greenhouse and household bill impacts associated with reduced water consumption
Ross, K.E., Delaney, C.C., Mohr, S.H. & Mitchell, C.A. Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS 2014, End of project evaluation: Gunbalanya Water Initiative, pp. 1-97, Sydney, Australia.
This report presents an analysis of water use in Gunbalanya and an independent evaluation of the `Gunbalanya Water Initiative (the Initiative), a water demand management program led by Power and Water Corporation (PWC) in 2013. The Initiative was implemented in the Gunbalanya community (Oenpelli) in western Arnhemland, Northern Territory, in response to increasing water scarcity and rising demand from the water system. The community experiences water shortages at the end of most dry seasons (October to December) as the aquifer is dependent on seasonal recharge and unique aquifer characteristics prohibit higher extraction rates. Increasing water demand incurs higher production costs. Where that water continues to the sewer, it can also overload sewage treatment systems. These drivers triggered an analysis of the sources of demand (water use, leaks, etc) to identify and test the local efficacy of targeted demand reduction measures. Implementation of the Initiative was from October 2012 to November 2013 through a partnership between local and Territory governments and the Gunbalanya community. The partners included Power and Water Corporation, the NT Department of Housing, the West Arnhem Regional Council (WARC), and the NT Department of Community Services. In - kind contributions from all partners supplemented grant funding of $298,000 from the Australian Government to deliver the program. The focus of the Initiative was to engage Indigenous public housing tenants and community stakeholders in a water efficiency program. Smart meter data interpretation played a significant role in the Initiatives design, monitoring and evaluation. A mixture of qualitative and quantitative evaluation techniques were used.
Nickless, E., Bloodworth, A., Meinert, L., Giurco, D., Mohr, S. & Littleboy, A. International Union of Geological Sciences 2014, Resourcing Future Generations White Paper: Mineral Resources and Future Supply, pp. i-38, London.
Mohr, S.H., Mudd, G.M., Mason, L.M. & Giurco, D. Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS and the Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University 2013, Lithium: Production trends, sustainability issues and future prospects, pp. 1-59, Sydney.
White, S., Herriman, J., Giurco, D., Cordell, D.J., Gero, A., Mason, L.M., May, D., Mohr, S.H. & Moore, D.D. Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS 2012, Landfill Futures: Synthesis report, pp. 1-6, Sydney, Australia.
Nguyen, M., Milne, G.R., Rickwood, P., Mohr, S.H. & Turner, A.J. Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS 2012, Analysis of data from the ClimateSmart Home Service, Sydney, Australia.
Cordell, D.J., Jackson, M.L., Boronyak, L.J., Cooper, C., Mohr, S.H., Moore, D.D. & White, S. Australian Sustainable Phosphorus Futures and Institute for Sustainable Futures 2012, Phase 1: Analysis of phosphorus flows through the Australian food production and consumption system, pp. 1-57, Sydney, Australia.