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Dr Steve Mohr

Biography

Dr Steve Mohr is a Senior Research Consultant, specialising in data analysis, forecasting resource depletion, analytical and numerical modeling, and the evaluation of energy and water savings pilot programs. Steve has a PhD in fossil fuel supply, and has used his Mathematic and Engineering skills to developed Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo) which is capable of replicating supply and demand of resources extracted from mining methods and oil and gas from fields. Since working at ISF Steve made publicly available a version of the model:  GeRS-DeMo - or Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model

Before joining the Institute, Steve worked for Prof. Geoffrey Evans at the University of Newcastle investigating future phosphorus production for the world by country using GeRS-DeMo. Steve also worked with Dr Gavin Mudd at Monash University as part of the Peak Minerals Cluster investigating world lithium supply and demand, as well as gold and nickel production in the Goldfield Esperance region of Western Australia.

For the past 18 months Steve has been primarily focused on evaluating the energy and/or water savings from pilot programs. In particular he has worked on evaluation projects such as the OEH Home Power Savings Program, Endeavour Energy efficiency programs, ACEW AGL and Hunter Water Save Water Initiatives. A key component of this evaluation work is collating large datasets of either customer billing data or smart meter data from a range of sources and critically analysing the compiled datasets to glean statistically significant information. Steve has specific experience with smart meter data analysis, having completed projects with Hunter Water Corp and Endeavour Energy analysing smart meter data consumption data. Steve is currently evaluating smart meter consumption for Power and Water Corp. Steve has also assisted in refining existing water and energy models and associated analysis and designing new resource models.
Steve is passionate about phosphorus recovery research. He is currently working under Dr Dana Cordell to develop a model of phosphorus supplies and demand. Steve has also previously worked for Dr Gavin Mudd at Monash University as part of the Peak Minerals Cluster investigating world lithium supply and demand, as well as gold and nickel production in the Goldfield Esperance region of Western Australia.

Image of Steve Mohr
Associate of the Institute, Institute for Sustainable Futures
Core Member, Institute for Sustainable Futures
Bachelors of Maths, B Eng (Chem), Doctor of Philosophy

Conferences

Gero, A., Doan Trieu, T., Mohr, S.H., Rickwood, P., Halcrow, G. & Willetts, J.R. 2014, 'Sustainable Water and Sanitation Services for all in a Fast Changing World: Relying on markets to address human rights: sanitation supply chain analysis in low-density settings', Water, Engineering and Development Centre Knowledge Base, 37th WEDC International Conference, WEDC International Conferences, Hanoi, Vietnam, pp. 1-6.
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Market-based approaches to improving sanitation coverage have increased in recent years, however the equity implications of these approaches, particularly in the face of the recently established human right to sanitation in 2010, requires a closer examination of the costs of sanitation products and services in remote, rural locations. This paper presents results from a recent study examining the sanitation supply-chain in the province of Dien Bien in north-west Vietnam, a low-density rural setting with high rates of poverty. It was found that current toilet coverage is lower in areas of high poverty, and that these areas also experience the highest costs of sanitation products due to the impact of distance and transport costs. We conclude that market-based approaches require nuanced application and that other forms of support or significant market intervention are likely required to ensure equitable outcomes in remote rural contexts.
Giurco, D., Mohr, S.H., Fyfe, J., Rickwood, P., Teng, M.L. & Franklin, J. 2013, 'Modelling bounce-back in water consumption post-drought', Proceedings of the 5th National Water Efficiency Conference, 5th National Water Efficiency Conference, Australian Water Association (AWA), Sydney, pp. 1-5.
Mudd, G.M., Weng, Z., Northey, S., Jowitt, S., Memary, R., Mohr, S.H., Giurco, D. & Mason, L.M. 2013, 'A projection of future energy and greenhouse gas emissions intensity from copper mining', 23rd World Mining Congress 2013 Proceedings, 23rd World Mining Congress 2013, Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum, Montreal, Canada, pp. 1-14.
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In this study, we develop a detailed model of the likely future carbon footprint of primary copper supply. We develop a peak copper production model, based on a detailed copper resource data set, and combine this with a comprehensive life cycle assessment model of copper mining and milling to predict greenhouse gas emission rates and intensities of Australian and global copper production up to 2100. By establishing a quantitative prediction of both copper production and corresponding greenhouse gas emissions of Australian and global copper industry, we then analysed the emissions intensity of various energy input scenarios, such as business-as-usual, solar thermal electricity and solar thermal electricity with biodiesel. The Australian Government has an aspirational goal for long-term greenhouse gas emissions of an 80% reduction from the 2000 level by 2050. For the copper sector, this means moving from about 12.6 Mt CO2e in 2000 to a goal of some 2.52 Mt CO2e in 2050 (assuming equal emissions reductions across the economy). Based on the energy sources modelled, only the solar thermal plus biodiesel scenario was capable of achieving this goal at about 0.15 Mt CO2e, since the solar thermal alone scenario still includes normal petro-diesel as a major source of emissions. Overall, it is clear that there are abundant resources which can meet expected long-term copper demands, the critical issue is more the carbon (and environmental) footprint of different copper supplies and use rather than how much is available for mining. It is clear that the switch to renewable energy can have a profound impact on the carbon intensity of copper supply, even allowing for increased energy intensity as ore grades decline, and a complete conversion to renewable energy will position the copper sector to meet existing annual greenhouse gas emissions targets and goals.
Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G. 2012, 'The future of unconventional oil (slides)', The 10th Annual ASPO Conference:, Vienna, Austria.
Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G. 2012, 'The future of unconventional oil (video)', The 10th Annual APSO Conference, Vienna, Austria.
Mohr, S.H. 2012, 'Forecasting fossil fuels', Australian Academy of Science, Australian Frontiers of Science Conference: Science for a Green Economy, Sydney, Australia.

Journal articles

Mohr, S.H., Wang, J., Ellem, G., Ward, J. & Giurco, D. 2015, 'Projection of world fossil fuels by country', Fuel, vol. 141, pp. 120-135.
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© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Detailed projections of world fossil fuel production including unconventional sources were created by country and fuel type to estimate possible future fossil fuel production. Four critical countries (China, USA, Canada and Australia) were examined in detail with projections made on the state/province level. Ultimately Recoverable Resources (URR) for fossil fuels were estimated for three scenarios: Low = 48.4 ZJ, Best Guess (BG) = 75.7 ZJ, High = 121.5 ZJ. The scenarios were developed using Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo). The Low and Best Guess (BG) scenarios suggest that world fossil fuel production may peak before 2025 and decline rapidly thereafter. The High scenario indicates that fossil fuels may have a strong growth till 2025 followed by a plateau lasting approximately 50 years before declining. All three scenarios suggest that world coal production may peak before 2025 due to peaking Chinese production and that only natural gas could have strong growth in the future. In addition, by converting the fossil fuel projections to greenhouse gas emissions, the projections were compared to IPCC scenarios which indicated that based on current estimates of URR there are insufficient fossil fuels to deliver the higher emission IPCC scenarios A1Fl and RCP8.5.
Mohr, S. & Ward, J. 2014, 'Helium Production and Possible Projection', Minerals, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 130-144.
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Northey, S., Mohr, S., Mudd, G.M., Weng, Z. & Giurco, D. 2014, 'Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining', Resources, Conservation and Recycling, vol. 83, pp. 190-201.
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The concept of "peak oil" has been explored and debated extensively within the literature. However there has been comparatively little research examining the concept of "peak minerals", particularly in-depth analyses for individual metals. This paper presents scenarios for mined copper production based upon a detailed assessment of global copper resources and historic mine production. Scenarios for production from major copper deposit types and from individual countries or regions were developed using the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo). These scenarios were extended using cumulative grade-tonnage data, derived from our resource database, to produce estimates of potential rates of copper ore grade decline. The scenarios indicate that there are sufficient identified copper resources to grow mined copper production for at least the next twenty years. The future rate of ore grade decline may be less than has historically been the case, as mined grades are approaching the average resource grade and there is still significant copper endowment in high grade ore bodies. Despite increasing demand for copper as the developing world experiences economic growth, the economic and environmental impacts associated with increased production rates and declining ore grades (particularly those relating to energy consumption, water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions) will present barriers to the continued expansion of the industry. For these reasons peak mined copper production may well be realised during this century. © 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Ross, K., Delaney, C.C., Beard, N., Fuller, K., Mohr, S. & Mitchell, C. 2014, 'Smart Metering Enables Effective Demand Management Design', Water, vol. August 2014, pp. 81-87.
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The water demand and water use practices of each community are different. Designing cost-effective demand management programs requires investigating and responding directly to the unique water issues and opportunities of each community (Turner et al., 2010). As presented in this paper, a `mixed method baseline analysis' has proven to be valuable in developing a demand management program tailored to the distinctive community context. A mixed method baseline analysis is comprised of two interlinked components: (i) quantitative smart meter data analysis to create a detailed understanding of the water demand pro¬file; and (ii) qualitative social research to understand the social, cultural and institutional influences that drive existing water patterns. This paper shares the mixed method baseline analysis and resulting implications for a demand management program implemented in the remote Indigenous community of Gunbalanya, Northern Territory, in 2013.
Mohr, S., Giurco, D., Yellishetty, M., Ward, J. & Mudd, G. 2014, 'Projection of Iron Ore Production', Natural Resources Research, vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 317-327.
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© 2014, International Association for Mathematical Geosciences. A comprehensive country-by-country projection of world iron ore production is presented along with alternative scenarios and a sensitivity analysis. The supply-driven modelling approach follows Mohr (Projection of world fossil fuel production with supply and demand interactions, PhD Thesis, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6782, 2010) using an ultimately recoverable resource of 346 Gt of iron ore. Production is estimated to have a choppy plateau starting in 2017 until 2050 after which production rapidly declines. The undulating plateau is due to Chinese iron ore production peaking earlier followed by Australia and Brazil in turn. Alternative scenarios indicate that the model is sensitive to increases in Australian and Brazilian resources, and that African iron ore production can shift the peak date only if the African Ultimately Recoverable Resources (URR) is 5 times larger than the estimate used. Changes to the demand for iron ore driven by substitution or recycling are not modelled. The relatively near-term peak in iron ore supply is likely to create a global challenge to manufacturing and construction and ultimately the world economy.
Turner, A., Fyfe, J., Rickwood, P. & Mohr, S. 2014, 'Evaluation of implemented Australian efficiency programs: results, techniques and insights', Water Science & Technology: Water Supply, vol. 14, no. 6, pp. 1112-1112.
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Yellishetty, M., Mudd, G.M., Giurco, D., Mason, L. & Mohr, S. 2013, 'Iron ore in Australia - Too much or too hard?', AusIMM Bulletin, no. 3, pp. 42-44+47.
Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G. 2013, 'Projections of future Phosphorus production (paper)', Philica: where ideas are free, vol. Article380.
Giurco, D., Mohr, S.H., Fyfe, J., Rickwood, P., Teng, M.L. & Franklin, J. 2013, 'Modelling bounce-back in water consumption post-drought', Water, vol. 40, no. 5, pp. 79-84.
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Focused on a case study of Geelong, Victoria, this paper presents the results of a unique comparison of (i) a custombuilt regression model for forecasting total customer water demand and (ii) end-use based water projections using the integrated Supply Demand Planning model (iSDP) model. The regression model used historical data for calibration based on level of restrictions, evapotranspiration, temperature, and rainfall. By selecting a future climate scenario (and any anticipated restriction periods) for the next 10-year period, demand can be projected by the model.
Mohr, S.H., Mudd, G.M. & Giurco, D. 2012, 'Lithium resources and production: Critical assessment and global projections', Minerals, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 65-84.
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© 2012 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This paper critically assesses if accessible lithium resources are sufficient for expanded demand due to lithium battery electric vehicles. The ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of lithium globally were estimated at between 19.3 (Case 1) and 55.0 (Case 3) Mt Li; Best Estimate (BE) was 23.6 Mt Li. The Mohr 2010 model was modified to project lithium supply. The Case 1 URR scenario indicates sufficient lithium for a 77% maximum penetration of lithium battery electric vehicles in 2080 whereas supply is adequate to beyond 2200 in the Case 3 URR scenario. Global lithium demand approached a maximum of 857 kt Li/y, with a 100% penetration of lithium vehicles, 3.5 people per car and 10 billion population.
Giurco, D., Prior, T., Mason, L., Mohr, S. & Mudd, G. 2012, 'Life-of-resource sustainability considerations for mining', Australian Journal of Civil Engineering, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 47-56.
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Mining in Australia is booming. Notwithstanding, production conditions are progressively transitioning from the mining of "cheaper, easily accessible and higher quality ores" to "lower grade, more remote, complex and expensive ores". Sustainability discussions in the minerals industry have largely sought to improve the social and environmental performance of individual operations, including planning for closure. However, the national implications of a change in the circumstances underpinning the current prosperity of mining are underexplored. This paper uses a peak minerals metaphor to map "life-of-resource" environmental and social considerations, pre- and post-peak production, at local and national scales. An examination of how the social and environmental impacts change, over the life of a resource's extraction, is used to inform strategies for the role of technological and policy innovation in underpinning long-term national benefit from minerals in Australia. © Institution of Engineers Australia, 2012.
Giurco, D., Mohr, S., Mudd, G., Mason, L. & Prior, T. 2012, 'Resource Criticality and Commodity Production Projections', Resources, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 23-33.
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Ward, J.D., Mohr, S.H., Myers, B.R. & Nel, W.P. 2012, 'High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment', Energy Policy, vol. 51, pp. 598-604.
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The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.
Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M. 2011, 'Long term forecasting of natural gas production', Energy Policy, vol. 39, no. 9, pp. 5550-5560.
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Natural gas is an important energy source for power generation, a chemical feedstock and residential usage. It is important to analyse the future production of conventional and unconventional natural gas. Analysis of the literature determined conventional URR estimates of 10,700-18,300. EJ, and the unconventional gas URR estimates were determined to be 4250-11,000. EJ. Six scenarios were assumed, with three static where demand and supply do not interact and three dynamic where it does. The projections indicate that world natural gas production will peak between 2025 and 2066 at 140-217. EJ/y (133-206. tcf/y). Natural gas resources are more abundant than some of the literature indicates. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.
Mason, L., Mohr, S., Zeibots, M. & Giurco, D. 2011, 'Limits to cheap oil - Impact on mining', AusIMM Bulletin, no. 4, pp. 40-42.
The price of oil also affects the demand for metals and minerals and hence the ability of mining companies to sell resources at a profit. The mining sector is a major consumer of oil products and hence the cost of producing metals and minerals is sensitive to oil prices. Specifically, oil based diesel is mixed with ammonium nitrate as the explosives commonly used in the mining industry, diesel trucks, and shovels are used to collect the ore and transport the ore to the primary processing facilities typically on the mine site. Currently, Australia imports from Malaysia and Vietnam (DRET 2010), however both of these countries reached peak oil production in 2004 and are now declining. The world is dependent on a small number of countries to ensure world oil production is adequate and less is being traded on the open market.
Mohr, S.H., Hook, M., Mudd, G.M. & Evans, G. 2011, 'Projection of long-term paths for Australian coal production - Comparison of four models', International Journal of Coal Geology, vol. 86, no. 4, pp. 329-341.
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Coal exports are an important source of revenue for Australia and for this reason Australian coal production and resources have been examined in detail and two recoverable resource estimates determined namely Standard and High. The Standard case calculated the likely recoverable coal resources in Australia to be 317 Gt, whereas the High scenario determined the maximal amount of recoverable coal resources at 367 Gt. Different modelling approaches (Logistic, Gompertz, Static and Dynamic supply and demand models) were used to project fossil fuel production and the projections of the relative approaches were compared. Good agreement was found between the Logistic, Static and Dynamic supply and demand models with production peaking in 2119 ± 6 at between 1.9 and 3.3 Gt/y. Contrasting these projections the Gompertz curves peak in 2084 ± 5 at 11.1 Gt/y. It was argued that the Logistic, Static and Dynamic models are more likely to produce accurate projections than the Gompertz curve. The production forecast is based on existing technology and constraints and a qualitative discussion is presented on possible influences on future production, namely: export capacity, climate change, overburden management, environmental and social impacts and export market issues.
Mohr, S.H. & Macdougall, J. 2010, 'Integral trees of diameter 4', AKCE : International journal of graphs and combinatorics, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 171-188.
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An integral tree is a tree whose adjacency matrix has only integer eigenvalues. While most previous work by other authors has been focused either on the very restricted case of balanced trees or on finding trees with diameter as large as possible, we study integral trees of diameter 4. In particular, we characterize all diameter 4 integral trees of the form T(m1, t1) T(m2, t2). In addition we give elegant parametric descriptions of infinite families of integral trees of the form T(m1, t1) T(mn, tn) for any n > 1. We conjecture that we have found all such trees.
Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M. 2010, 'Combined Generalized Hubbert-Bass Model Approach to Include Disruptions When Predicting Future Oil Production', Natural Resources, vol. 01, no. 01, pp. 28-33.
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Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M. 2010, 'Long term prediction of unconventional oil production', Energy Policy, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 265-276.
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Although considerable discussion surrounds unconventional oil's ability to mitigate the effects of peaking conventional oil production, very few models of unconventional oil production exist. The aim of this article was to project unconventional oil production to determine how significant its production may be. Two models were developed to predict the unconventional oil production, one model for in situ production and the other for mining the resources. Unconventional oil production is anticipated to reach between 18 and 32 Gb/y (49-88 Mb/d) in 2076-2084, before declining. If conventional oil production is at peak production then projected unconventional oil production cannot mitigate peaking of conventional oil alone. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M. 2009, 'Forecasting coal production until 2100', Fuel, vol. 88, no. 11, pp. 2059-2067.
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A model capable of projecting mineral resources production has been developed. The model includes supply and demand interactions, and has been applied to all coal producing countries. A model of worldwide coal production has been developed for three scenarios. The ultimately recoverable resources (URR) estimates used in the scenarios ranged from 700 Gt to 1243 Gt. The model indicates that worldwide coal production will peak between 2010 and 2048 on a mass basis and between 2011 and 2047 on an energy basis. The Best Guess scenario, assumed a URR of 1144 Gt and peaks in 2034 on a mass basis, and in 2026 on an energy basis. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M. 2009, 'An empirical method to make oil production models tolerant to anomalies', Natural Resources Research, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 1-5.
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Modeling oil production is of interest to society and hotly debated. Often anomalies have occurred which makes modeling oil production via a particular theory (e.g., Hubbert's bell curve) difficult. The empirical method described here allows for such historic anomalies to be incorporated while still using the underly theory. This method is explained using Hubbert's bell curve and Former Soviet Union oil production as an example. © 2008 International Association for Mathematical Geology.
Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M. 2008, 'Peak oil: Testing hubbert's curve via theoretical modeling', Natural Resources Research, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 1-11.
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A theoretical model of conventional oil production has been developed. The model does not assume Hubbert's bell curve, an asymmetric bell curve, or a reserve-to-production ratio method is correct, and does not use oil production data as an input. The theoretical model is in close agreement with actual production data until the 1979 oil crisis, with an R 2 value of greater than 0.98. Whilst the theoretical model indicates that an ideal production curve is slightly asymmetric, which differs from Hubbert's curve, the ideal model compares well with the Hubbert model, with R 2 values in excess of 0.95. Amending the theoretical model to take into account the 1979 oil crisis, and assuming the ultimately recoverable resources are in the range of 2-3 trillion barrels, the amended model predicts conventional oil production to peak between 2010 and 2025. The amended model, for the case when the ultimately recoverable resources is 2.2 trillion barrels, indicates that oil production peaks in 2013. © 2008 International Association for Mathematical Geology.
Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G. 2007, 'Model Proposed For World Conventional, Unconventional Gas', Oil & Gas Journal, vol. 105, no. 47, pp. 46-52.
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Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M. 2007, 'Models provide insights on North American gas future', Oil and Gas Journal, vol. 105, no. 25, p. 51-52+54-55.
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Estimates of ultimate recovery resources (URR) for conventional gas in North America were drawn from models with various assumptions using a history match of past production and bell-curve approach. Model 1 used Laherrer's URR estimate of 42.5 tcm for US plus Canada and Model 2 used Rempel's URR estimate of 63 tcm for US plus Canada. Both models used only historic US and Canadian conventional natural gas production from 1918 to 1993. The assessment modified both models to account for stranded gas. Model 1 predicts gas production will decrease steadily. Model 2 shows a continued decrease until 2015, followed by a significant increase in production to a peak in 2049. URR estimates of unconventional gas in the US are tight gas: 200-627 tcf; coalbed methane: 50-180 tcf; shale gas: 50-150 tcf. The highest estimates of 600 tcf tight gas, 180 tcf coalbed methane and 150 tcf shale gas for the model. Estimates of tight-gas resources in Canada vary from 300 tcf to 700 tcf. The US has about 6000 tcf of tight gas in place. Finally, because of unconventional and stranded gas, production remains almost steady until 2025 before declining.
Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M. 2007, 'Mathematical model forecasts year conventional oil will peak', Oil and Gas Journal, vol. 105, no. 17, p. 45-46+48-50.
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A new mathematical model can forecast when worldwide conventional oil production will peak with a minimal amount of information. The new model for forecasting worldwide conventional oil production requires historic oil production data (HPD(x)) and an estimate of ultimate recoverable reserves. The model generates an ideal bell curve (IBC(x)) from IBC(x) = 2Yp/1 + coshR(X-Xp) using data prior to anomalies in production. The curve has the total area equal to the ultimate recoverable reserves. The model considers crude plus NGL production. In the equation, Yp is the production at the peak year, R is a slope constant, x is the year and xp is the peak year. The xai-1 is the year the i-th anomaly occurred. The model requires conventional oil production data and an estimate of the world's total recoverable conventional oil as inputs.

Other

Ellem, G., Giurco, D., Ward, J. & Mohr, S. 2015, 'Four ways to boost Australia's economy that can help the climate'.

Reports

Fyfe, J., McKibbin, J.L., Mohr, S., Madden, B., Turner, A. & Ege, C. 2015, Evaluation of the Environmental Effects of the WELS Scheme, pp. 1-103, Sydney, Australia.
The Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF) at the University of Technology Sydney, undertook a review of the environmental effects of the Water Efficiency Labelling and Standards (WELS) Scheme on behalf of the Australian Government Department of the Environment. The review analysed several facets of the Scheme, including: * the interactions between WELS and other urban water policies * changes in the products registered and sold since the commencement of WELS * changes in water consumption since the commencement of WELS * energy, greenhouse and household bill impacts associated with reduced water consumption
Mukheibir, P., Rickwood, P. & Mohr, S. 2015, Improved leak detection method for water reticulation zones, Sydney, Australia.
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The Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF) was tasked with developing new leak detection algorithms that detect leaks based on data from bulk water flow and pressure meters within South East Water's potable water distribution network.
Mohr, S. & Mukheibir, P. 2015, Pressure management leak reduction assessment.
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The Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF) was tasked with estimating the actual savings from South East Water's (SEW) installing pressure reducing valves (PRVs) and the establishment of pressure management zones within SEW's potable water distribution network. ISF used an algorithm (ISF1) developed to detect changes in flow characteristics in a previous SEW project. The algorithm was able to estimate the average daily saving based on analysis of the consumption for 14 days prior and after the switching on of the pressure management zone (PMA) – as shown in the table below. The algorithm implicitly takes variations in weather and other influences into account in the analysis.
Ross, K.E., Delaney, C.C., Mohr, S.H. & Mitchell, C.A. Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS 2014, End of project evaluation: Gunbalanya Water Initiative, pp. 1-97, Sydney, Australia.
This report presents an analysis of water use in Gunbalanya and an independent evaluation of the `Gunbalanya Water Initiative (the Initiative), a water demand management program led by Power and Water Corporation (PWC) in 2013. The Initiative was implemented in the Gunbalanya community (Oenpelli) in western Arnhemland, Northern Territory, in response to increasing water scarcity and rising demand from the water system. The community experiences water shortages at the end of most dry seasons (October to December) as the aquifer is dependent on seasonal recharge and unique aquifer characteristics prohibit higher extraction rates. Increasing water demand incurs higher production costs. Where that water continues to the sewer, it can also overload sewage treatment systems. These drivers triggered an analysis of the sources of demand (water use, leaks, etc) to identify and test the local efficacy of targeted demand reduction measures. Implementation of the Initiative was from October 2012 to November 2013 through a partnership between local and Territory governments and the Gunbalanya community. The partners included Power and Water Corporation, the NT Department of Housing, the West Arnhem Regional Council (WARC), and the NT Department of Community Services. In - kind contributions from all partners supplemented grant funding of $298,000 from the Australian Government to deliver the program. The focus of the Initiative was to engage Indigenous public housing tenants and community stakeholders in a water efficiency program. Smart meter data interpretation played a significant role in the Initiatives design, monitoring and evaluation. A mixture of qualitative and quantitative evaluation techniques were used.
Cordell, D.J., Mikhailovich, N., Mohr, S.H., Jacobs, B. & White, S. Australian Government: Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation 2014, Australian sustainable phosphorus futures: Phase II: Adapting to future phosphorus scarcity: Investigating potential sustainable phosphorus measures and strategies, no. RIRDC Publication No. 14/039, pp. 1-73.
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This project investigates how Australia can manage phosphorus to ensure long-term food security, soil fertility, agricultural productivity, farmer livelihoods and environmental protection. The intended outcome overall is to deliver sustainable phosphorus adaptation strategies across a range of scenarios to increase the resilience of the Australian food system. An Australian phosphorus flows model, quantified and costed sustainable phosphorus measures and interactive future phosphorus scenarios, will enable stakeholders to identify policy implications and make informed policy decisions. This report presents the findings from Phase 2 of this project, Adapting to future phosphorus scarcity: investigating potential sustainable phosphorus measures and strategies. That is: 1. a Toolbox of sustainable phosphorus measures 2. a future scenarios model of sustainable phosphorus measures 3. a high-level influence diagram on which phosphorus vulnerability can be mapped 4. a conceptual framework for deliberating on, and synthesising adaptive pathways.
Mohr, S.H., Fyfe, J. & Giurco, D. 2014, A Review of Data on Lead-Acid Batteries Entering Australia and Arising as Waste.
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Nickless, E., Bloodworth, A., Meinert, L., Giurco, D., Mohr, S. & Littleboy, A. International Union of Geological Sciences 2014, Resourcing Future Generations White Paper: Mineral Resources and Future Supply, pp. i-38, London.
Mohr, S.H., Mudd, G.M., Mason, L.M., Prior, T.D. & Giurco, D. Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS and Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University 2013, Coal: Production trends, sustainability issues and future prospects, pp. 1-48, Sydney.
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Mohr, S.H., Mudd, G.M., Mason, L.M. & Giurco, D. Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS and the Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University 2013, Lithium: Production trends, sustainability issues and future prospects, pp. 1-59, Sydney.
Mudd, G.M., Weng, Z., Memary, R., Northey, S., Giurco, D., Mohr, S.H. & Mason, L.M. Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS and the Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University 2013, Future greenhouse gas emissions from copper mining: Assessing clean energy scenarios, pp. 1-32, Sydney.
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Langham, E., Brennan, T., Downes, J., Fyfe, J., Mohr, S.H. & White, S. Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS 2013, Smart Grid, Smart City, Customer Research Report, Sydney, Australia.
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prepared by the Institute for Sustainable Futures as part of the AEFI consortium for Ausgrid and EnergyAustralia
White, S., Herriman, J., Giurco, D., Cordell, D.J., Gero, A., Mason, L.M., May, D., Mohr, S.H. & Moore, D.D. Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS 2012, Landfill Futures: Synthesis report, pp. 1-6, Sydney, Australia.
Langham, E., Dunstan, C., Cooper, C., Moore, D.D., Mohr, S.H. & Ison, N. Institute for Sustainable Futures 2012, Decentralised Energy Costs and Opportunities for Victoria, pp. 1-136, University of Technology, Sydney.
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Nguyen, M., Milne, G.R., Rickwood, P., Mohr, S.H. & Turner, A.J. Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS 2012, Analysis of data from the ClimateSmart Home Service, Sydney, Australia.
Rickwood, P., Mohr, S.H., Nguyen, M. & Milne, G.R. Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS 2012, Evaluation of the home power savings program - Phase 1, pp. 1-67, Sydney, Australia.
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Cordell, D.J., Jackson, M.L., Boronyak, L.J., Cooper, C., Mohr, S.H., Moore, D.D. & White, S. Australian Sustainable Phosphorus Futures and Institute for Sustainable Futures 2012, Phase 1: Analysis of phosphorus flows through the Australian food production and consumption system, pp. 1-57, Sydney, Australia.
Memary, R., Giurco, D., Mudd, G.M., Mohr, S.H. & Weng, Z. Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS and the Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University 2012, Copper case study: Australian resources, technology and future scenarios, pp. 1-48, Sydney.
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Mudd, G.M., Yellishetty, M., Mason, L.M., Mohr, S.H., Prior, T.D. & Giurco, D. Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University and the Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS 2012, Iron resources and production: Technology, sustainability and future prospects, pp. 1-60, Melbourne.
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Mudd, G.M., Giurco, D., Mohr, S.H. & Mason, L.M. Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University and the Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS 2012, Gold resources and production: Australia in a global context, pp. 1-60, Melbourne.
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Mohr, S.H., Mudd, G.M. & Giurco, D. Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS and Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University 2010, Lithium resources and production: A critical global assessment, pp. 1-107, Sydney.
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