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Scott Kelly

Biography

Scott has a background in economics and sustainable development. With research and professional experience that spans the insurance, financial and energy sectors, Scott has delivered projects for commercial, public and non-profit organisations. Scott has developed expertise in the application of input-output models, social network analysis and disaster science specialising in applied modelling approaches. In addition Scott has experience using various statistical techniques such as multiple linear regression, panel methods and structural equation modelling. Over the last several years Scott has specialised in the use of macro-economic models to generate forecasts and inform the development of stress-test scenarios.

Previously Scott has worked closely with the insurance and re-insurance industry in identifying emerging risks and their impact on the economy. He has co-authored over a dozen publications on the economic and financial impacts of systemic risks. He is a co-author on several book-chapters and has authored many peer reviewed journal articles spanning subjects such as energy demand, climate change, economic impact analysis, infrastructure interdependency and environmental economics. He has supervised students at both undergraduate and post-graduate levels.

Prior to joining ISF, Scott was a senior research associate in the Centre for Risk Studies at the University of Cambridge Judge Business School. During his time at Cambridge he also held research posts in the Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR) and the Energy Policy Research Group (EPRG) and was a Junior Research Fellow of Darwin College. In 2007 he was the recipient of the New Zealand Rotary Ambassadorial Award and in 2008 received the University of Cambridge CT Taylor Scholarship. 

Image of Scott Kelly
Research Principal, Institute for Sustainable Futures
Core Member, ISF - Institute for Sustainable Futures
Engineering, Sustainable Development, Energy, Economics
Phone
+61 2 9514 4881

Research Interests

New Economics

Sustainable Finance

Sustainable Development

Systems Thinking

Energy Systems Modelling

Climate Change Economics

Complexity Science

Can supervise: Yes

Disater risk and resilience (requires mathematical modelling competency)

  • The economics of catastrophe (catastronomics)?
  • Building a global risk atlas for different types of risk across the global value chain
  • How do we build resilience to disasters?

Input-Output Analysis and global trade (requires mathematical modelling competency)

  • Ecolological footprinting for different commodities, goods and services
  • Structural decomposition analysis
  • The role of green goods and services in the global economy

Complex systems modelling

  • (Social) Network Analysis
  • Agent based modelling
  • Systems dynamics models
  • Input-output analysis

New Economics

  • What does a sustainable economy look like and how do we get there?
  • What is the role of globalisation in a sustainable economy?
  • How do we measure progress in a sustainable economy?
  • How might the role of 'work' change in a sustainable economy?
  • How do we solve the growing inquality problem?

Climate Change

  • Estimating the indirect economic consequences of climate change
  • Estimating the financial impacts of climate change

Energy Systems Modelling

  • The economics of smart grids, batteries and demand side management
  • The energy trilemma: understanding and quantifying the trade-offs in policy making, economics and environmental impacts of the energy trilemma (e.g. security of supply, affordability and environmental impact)
  • How can we build more resilient energy systems (e.g. develop new metrics, create new tools and develop stress test scenarios for the Australian energy systems to understand resilience etc)
  • What role does energy equity and fuel poverty play within an Australian context?
  • Energy futures modelling and scenario development (e.g. EV, PV grid integration, IoT, prosumers, business models, systems etc what will our future energy system look like?) (primary or secondary)

Chapters

Fam, D., Leimbach, T., Kelly, Hitchens, L. & Callen, L. 2017, 'Meta-considerations for institutionalising Interdisciplinary Education' in Collaborative Research and Collective Learning: Transdisciplinary Theory, Practice and Education, Springer, UK.
Thoung, C., Beaven, R., Birkin, M., Tyler, P., Crawford-Brown, D., Oughton, E. & Kelly, S. 2016, 'Future demand for infrastructure services' in Hall, J., Tran, M., Nicholls, R. & Hickford, A. (eds), The Future of National Infrastructure A System-of-Systems Approach, Cambridge University Press, pp. 29-30.
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Infrastructure forms the economic backbone of modern society. It is a key determinant of economic competitiveness, social well-being and environmental sustainability. Yet infrastructure systems (energy, transport, water, waste and ICT) in advanced economies globally face serious challenges. For the first time, a leading team of researchers sets out a systematic approach to making long-term choices about national infrastructure systems. Great Britain is used as a case study to demonstrate how the methodologies and accompanying models can be effectively applied in a national infrastructure assessment. Lessons and insights for other industrialised nations and emerging economies are highlighted, demonstrating practical scenarios for delivering infrastructure services in a wide range of future socio-economic and environmental conditions. The Future of National Infrastructure provides practitioners, policy-makers, and academics with the concepts, models and tools needed to identify and test robust, sustainable, and resilient strategies for the provision of national infrastructure.
Raghav, P., Thacker, S., Hall, J., Barr, S., Alderson, D. & Kelly 2016, 'Analysing the risks of failure of interdependent infrastructure networks' in Hall, J., Tran, M., Hickford, A. & Nicholls, R. (eds), The Future of National Infrastructure A System-of-Systems Approach, Cambridge University Press.
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Infrastructure forms the economic backbone of modern society. It is a key determinant of economic competitiveness, social well-being and environmental sustainability. Yet infrastructure systems (energy, transport, water, waste and ICT) in advanced economies globally face serious challenges. For the first time, a leading team of researchers sets out a systematic approach to making long-term choices about national infrastructure systems. Great Britain is used as a case study to demonstrate how the methodologies and accompanying models can be effectively applied in a national infrastructure assessment. Lessons and insights for other industrialised nations and emerging economies are highlighted, demonstrating practical scenarios for delivering infrastructure services in a wide range of future socio-economic and environmental conditions. The Future of National Infrastructure provides practitioners, policy-makers, and academics with the concepts, models and tools needed to identify and test robust, sustainable, and resilient strategies for the provision of national infrastructure.
Kelly, S., Skelton, A. & Altimiras-Martin, A. 2014, 'Feasibility of reducing emissions by end-use sector' in Decarbonising the World's Economy: Assessing the Feasibility of Policies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions, pp. 223-258.
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Kelly, S. & Pollitt, M.G. 2012, 'The local dimension of energy' in The Future of Electricity Demand: Customers, Citizens and Loads, pp. 249-279.
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More than half of the world's population lives in urban centres and this is projected to reach two-thirds by the middle of this century (OECD 2009, p. 21). Cities alone consume about two-thirds of the world's total energy production and account for more than 70 per cent of global CO2 emissions through heating, transport and electricity use (IEA, 2008c, p. 179). Many urban centres are now making strides to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and take control over energy consumption and generation. In this chapter, we postulate that some of the best opportunities for reducing energy demand and carbon emissions are through stronger involvement and leadership from local government. We show that local government can and does have a significant impact on both energy production and energy consumption and is an important participant for the implementation of distributed energy. While the theory of free-riding goes some way to explain the difficulties in getting local governments to unilaterally cut carbon emissions, it neglects to account for many of the co-benefits of implementing such policies. For instance, the costs and the benefits of carbon mitigation are difficult to measure and thus introduce large uncertainty about the aggregate economic and welfare impacts different policies may have. Such uncertainty leads to inefficient decision making and to councils adopting a 'wait and see' policy rather than deriving direct benefit from more immediate implementation. While such a strategy may seem rational from a unilateral perspective, in aggregate it leads to inefficient outcomes where the majority of players choose to 'wait and see' rather than 'acting now'. Councils which choose not to adopt carbon-mitigation strategies are therefore 'free-riding' and benefiting from the knowledge and implementation strategies created by other first movers. While free-riders adopting status quo policies derive some secondary benefits from first movers, we show that first movers w...

Conferences

Fam, D.M., Leimbach, T., Kelly, S., Hitchens, L. & Callen, M. 2017, 'Collaborative research and collective learning: institutionalizing interdisciplinary programs in higher education', International Transdisciplinary Conference, Transdisciplinary Research and Education — Intercultural Endeavours, Leuphana University Lüneburg, Germany.
Kelly, Rutovitz, J., Langham, E. & McIntosh, L. 2016, 'The network value of distributed generation', Australian Utility Week 2016, Sydney.
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Kelly, S. & Reynolds, J. 2017, 'Unhedgeable Risk: How climate change sentiment impacts investment', Central Banking, Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability, Bank of England, London, UK.
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Journal articles

Hamilton, T.G.A. & Kelly, S. 2017, 'Low carbon energy scenarios for sub-Saharan Africa: An input-output analysis on the effects of universal energy access and economic growth', Energy Policy, vol. 105, pp. 303-319.
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© 2017 Elsevier LtdMeeting Sub-Saharan African (SSA) human development goals will require economic development to be the priority over the coming decades, but economic development 'at all cost' may not be acceptable across these goals. This paper aims to explore five development scenarios for the five largest economies in SSA to understand the implications to CO2-equivalent emissions (CO2-e) and off-grid energy modernisation in 2030. Within this scope GDP growth; economic structure; availability of energy resources; international trade; and, the development of distributed generation for remote locations are considered. Regional CO2 emissions were studied using a Multi-Regional Input-Output Model for Africa. Under the scenarios analysed all five nations will be unable to reduce 2030 CO2-e emissions below 2012 levels, whilst simultaneously achieving forecast GDP growth and universal access to modernised energy services. 100% off-grid modernisation is estimated to require a three-fold increase in Primary Energy Supply and a 26% (1317 Mt) increase in 2030 CO2-e emissions. Total regional CO2-e emissions could be reduced from 45% to 35% by meeting a 50% renewable energy supply target by 2030. Climate Change policy would need to focus on multi-sector reform to reduce regional emissions as the agricultural sector is the largest emitter in Nigeria, Ethiopia and Kenya.
Tiziano, D. & Kelly 2017, 'Are we in deep water? Water scarcity and its limits to economic growth', Ecological Economics.
Pritchard, R. & Kelly 2017, 'Energy efficiency in non-domestic building performance evaluation: lessons learnt from early stage implementation in Cambridge', Sustainability.
Thacker, S., Kelly, Pant, R. & Hall, J. 2017, 'Evaluating the benefits of adaptation of critical infrastructure to hydrometeorological risks', Risk Analysis.
Kelly, S., Tyler, P. & Crawford-Brown, D. 2016, 'Exploring Vulnerability and Interdependency of UK Infrastructure Using Key-Linkages Analysis', Networks and Spatial Economics, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 865-892.
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© 2015, The Author(s).It has been argued the UK has experienced significant underinvestment in critical infrastructure over the last two decades. This in turn has resulted in infrastructure that is less capable of assisting the UK economy to grow. This article seeks to undertake an in-depth analysis of the inter-linkages and economic contributions from infrastructure within the UK. It explores the relationship between nine infrastructure sectors and how these sectors contribute to the rest of the UK economy using key-linkage analysis. Each infrastructure sector is shown to be unique in the way it interacts with other economic sectors and in the form of contribution it makes to the economy overall. Infrastructure is found to be a necessary and important part of economic development. The analysis finds that over the last 23 years there has been a decline in the relative economic contribution from infrastructure to UK GVA. Only two infrastructure sectors increased their relative contribution to GVA since 1992. These were the water transport sector and sewerage and sanitary services sector. Railway transport and gas distribution have had the largest relative decline in contribution towards UK GVA with relative contributions decreasing by over 50 % since 1992. The three most important infrastructure sectors contributing to UK GDP are land transport, electricity production and distribution and telecommunications respectively.
Kelly, S. 2015, 'Estimating economic loss from cascading infrastructure failure: a perspective on modelling interdependency', Infrastructure Complexity, vol. 2, no. 1.
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Kelly, S., Shipworth, M., Shipworth, D., Gentry, M., Wright, A., Pollitt, M., Crawford-Brown, D. & Lomas, K. 2013, 'Predicting the diversity of internal temperatures from the English residential sector using panel methods', Applied Energy, vol. 102, pp. 601-621.
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In this paper, panel methods are applied in new and innovative ways to predict daily mean internal temperature demand across a heterogeneous domestic building stock over time. This research not only exploits a rich new dataset but presents new methodological insights and offers important linkages for connecting bottom-up building stock models to human behaviour. It represents the first time a panel model has been used to estimate the dynamics of internal temperature demand from the natural daily fluctuations of external temperature combined with important behavioural, socio-demographic and building efficiency variables. The model is able to predict internal temperatures across a heterogeneous building stock to within 0.71 °C at 95% confidence and explain 45% of the variance of internal temperature between dwellings. The model confirms hypothesis from sociology and psychology that habitual behaviours are important drivers of home energy consumption. In addition, the model offers the possibility to quantify take-back (direct rebound effect) owing to increased internal temperatures from the installation of energy efficiency measures. The presence of thermostats or thermostatic radiator valves (TRVs) are shown to reduce average internal temperatures, however, the use of an automatic timer is shown to be statistically insignificant. The number of occupants, household income and occupant age are all important factors that explain a quantifiable increase in internal temperature demand. Households with children or retired occupants are shown to have higher average internal temperatures than households who do not. As expected, building typology, building age, roof insulation thickness, wall U-value and the proportion of double glazing all have positive and statistically significant effects on daily mean internal temperature. In summary, the model can be either used to make statistical inferences about the importance of different factors for explaining internal temperatur...
Kelly, S., Crawford-Brown, D. & Pollitt, M.G. 2012, 'Building performance evaluation and certification in the UK: Is SAP fit for purpose?', Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 16, no. 9, pp. 6861-6878.
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Improving the efficiency and performance of the UK residential sector is now necessary for meeting future energy and climate change targets. Building performance evaluation and certification (BPEC) tools are vital for estimating and recommending cost effective improvements to building energy efficiency and lowering overall emissions. In the UK, building performance is estimated using the standard assessment procedure (SAP) for new dwellings and Reduced SAP (RdSAP) for existing dwellings. Using a systems based approach we show there are many opportunities for improving the effectiveness of BPEC tools. In particular, if the building stock is going to meet future energy and climate change targets the system driving building energy efficiency will need to become more efficient. In order to achieve this goal, building performance standards across Europe are compared highlighting the most effective strategies where they are found. It is shown that the large variance between estimated and actual energy performance from dwellings in the UK may be preventing the adoption of bottom-up energy efficiency measures. We show that despite popular belief, SAP and RdSAP do not estimate building energy efficiency but instead attempt to estimate the cost-effective performance of a building and thus create perverse incentives that may lead to additional CO 2 emissions. In this regard, the SAP standard confounds cost-effectiveness, energy efficiency and environmental performance giving an inadequate estimate of all three policy objectives. Important contributions for improving measurement, analysis, synthesis and certification of building performance characteristics are offered. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.
Kelly, S. 2012, 'Scotland's economy', Economist, vol. 403, no. 8782.
Kelly, S. & Pollitt, M. 2011, 'Policy update: What does the renewable heat incentive mean for bioenergy in the UK?', Carbon Management, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 117-121.
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Kelly, S. 2011, 'Do homes that are more energy efficient consume less energy?: A structural equation model of the English residential sector', Energy, vol. 36, no. 9, pp. 5610-5620.
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Energy consumption from the residential sector is a complex socio-technical problem that can be explained using a combination of physical, demographic and behavioural characteristics of a dwelling and its occupants. A structural equation model (SEM) is introduced to calculate the magnitude and significance of explanatory variables on residential energy consumption. The benefit of this approach is that it explains the complex relationships that exist between manifest variables and their overall effect though direct, indirect and total effects. Using the English House Condition Survey (EHCS) consisting of 2531 unique cases, the main drivers behind residential energy consumption are found to be the number of household occupants, floor area, household income, dwelling efficiency (SAP), household heating patterns and living room temperature. In the multivariate case, SAP explains very little of the variance of residential energy consumption. However, this procedure fails to account for simultaneity bias between energy consumption and SAP. Using SEM its shown that dwelling energy efficiency (SAP), has reciprocal causality with dwelling energy consumption and the magnitude of these two effects are calculable. When non-recursivity between SAP and energy consumption is allowed for, SAP is shown to have a negative effect on energy consumption but conversely, homes with a propensity to consume more energy also have higher SAP rates. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.
Kelly, S. & Pollitt, M. 2010, 'An assessment of the present and future opportunities for combined heat and power with district heating (CHP-DH) in the United Kingdom', Energy Policy, vol. 38, no. 11, pp. 6936-6945.
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As global fuel reserves are depleted, alternative and more efficient forms of energy generation and delivery will be required. Combined heat and power with district heating (CHP-DH) provides an alternative energy production and delivery mechanism that is less resource intensive, more efficient and provides greater energy security than many popular alternatives. It will be shown that the economic viability of CHP-DH networks depends on several principles, namely (1) the optimisation of engineering and design principles; (2) organisational and regulatory frameworks; (3) financial and economic factors. It was found that in the long term DH is competitive with other energy supply and distribution technologies such as electricity and gas. However, in the short to medium term it is shown that economic risk, regulatory uncertainty and lock-in of existing technology are the most significant barriers to CHP-DH development. This research suggests that under the present regulatory and economic paradigm, the infrastructure required for DH networks remains financially prohibitive; the implementation of government policies are complicated and impose high transaction costs, while engineering solutions are frequently not implemented or economically optimised. If CHP-DH is going to play any part in meeting climate change targets then collaboration between public and private organisations will be required. It is clear from this analysis that strong local government involvement is therefore necessary for the co-ordination, leadership and infrastructural deployment of CHP-DH. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Reports

Fattal, A.R., Kelly, S., Liu, A. & Giurco, D. Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS 2016, Waste Fires in Australia: Cause for Concern?, pp. 1-33, Sydney.
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Kelly, S., Rutovitz, J., Langham, E. & McIntosh, L. Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS 2016, An Economic Impact Analysis of Local Generation Network Credits in New South Wales, pp. 1-77, Sydney, Australia.
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Kelly, S., Lewis, H., Atherton, A., Downes, J., Wyndham, J. & Giurco, D. 2016, Packaging Sustainability in Consumer Companies in Emerging Markets: Final Report.
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Kelly, S. 2016, Unhedgeable Risk: How climate change sentiment impacts investment.
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Kelly, Asante, S., Jung, J.C.D., Kesaite, V. & Woo, G. Centre for Risk Studies; University of Cambridge 2016, A Risk Analysis Retrospective on the 2015 Paris Attacks, Cambridge Risk Framework series, no. Working Paper 2016:1, pp. 1-11.
In today's world we are threatened by failed states that foster terrorism. The Middle East is going through a transformation that will play out for another generation to come. Such change is unlikely to be at a low cost. In fact, the west is already seeing its repercussions. The aims of this paper are twofold. First, to assess the short term economic impact on the French economy using the share price index. Second, to analyse the medium to long term effects on the French and global economies. One of the key findings that emerged from this study is that in the short run markets tend to remain resilient to negative shocks whilst in the long run the cost (GDP@Risk) amounts to $12billion for France and $22 billion for the global economy.
Kelly, Leverett, E., Oughton, E.J., Copic, J., Thacker, S., Pant, R., Pryor, L., Kassara, G., Evan, T., Ruffle, S.J., Tuveson, M., Coburn, A.W., Ralph, D. & Hall, J.W. Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge. 2016, Integrated Infrastructure: Cyber Resiliency in Society, Mapping the Consequences of an Interconnected Digital Economy, Cambridge Risk Framework series, pp. 1-53.
Ruffle, S., Kelly, Leverett, E., Copic, J., Evan, T., Tuveson, M., Coburn, A.W., Ralph, D. & Beecroft, N. Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge 2015, Business Blackout – The insurance implications of a cyber attack on the US power grid, Emerging Risk Report, pp. 1-68.
Yeo, Z.Y., Coburn, A.W., Copic, J., Evan, T., Kelly, Neduv, E., Ralph, D., Ruffle, S.J. & Skelton, A. Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge 2015, Stress Test Scenario: High Inflation World, Cambridge Risk Framework Series, pp. 1-36.
Kelly, Coburn, A.W., Copic, J., Evan, T., Neduv, E., Ralph, D., Ruffle, S.J., Shaghaghi, A., Skelton, A. & Yeo, Z.Y. Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge 2015, Stress Test Scenario: Global Property Crash, Cambridge Risk Framework Series, pp. 1-40.
An illustration of the risks posed by a plausible but extreme Global Property Crash financial catastrophe. A sudden loss of confidence in the boom markets of South East Asia triggers a housing market collapse that impacts mortgage and non-mortgage assets worldwide.
Ralph, D., Chaplin, A., Coburn, A.W., Copic, J., Evan, T., Kelly, Neduv, E., Ruffle, S.J., Skelton, A. & Yeo, Z.Y. Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge 2015, Stress Test Scenario: Dollar Deposed, Cambridge Risk Framework series, pp. 1-36.
An illustration of the risks posed by a plausible but extreme Dollar Deposed financial catastrophe. The rapid development of the Chinese domestic economy ultimately destabilizes the value of the dollar. The Chinese renminbi supplants the greenback as the reserve currency of choice.
Kelly, Chaplin, A., Coburn, A.W., Copic, J., Evan, T., Neduv, E., Ralph, D., Ruffle, S.J., Schwendner, P., Skelton, A. & Yeo, Z.Y. Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge 2015, Stress Test Scenario: Eurozone Meltdown, Cambridge Risk Framework series, pp. 1-36.
An illustration of the risks posed by a plausible but extreme Eurozone Meltdown financial catastrophe. The sudden exit of Italy from the Eurozone triggers a cascade of sovereign debt defaults in vulnerable European states.
Coburn, A.W., Kelly, Evan, T., Foulser-Piggott, R., Ralph, D., Ruffle, S.J. & Yeo, J.Z. ; Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge 2015, World City Risk 2025: Part I Overview and Results, Cambridge Risk Framework series, pp. 1-25.
Main report providing an overview of the World City Risk 2025 analysis and key results. It describes the outline methodology and key principles, results and conclusions, validation and comparison with other studies, and some sensitivity studies for mitigating risk and potential for climate change to increase catastrophe risk.
Coburn, A.W., Kelly, Evan, T., Foulser-Piggott, R., Ralph, D., Ruffle, S.J. & Yeo, J.Z. Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge 2015, World City Risk 2025: Part II Methodology Documentation, Cambridge Risk Framework series, pp. 1-27.
This working paper documents the methodology used for the World City Risk 2025 analysis. It describes how cities were selected, GDP projections, and vulnerability and resilience assessed. It outlines the catastronomics methodology and how the risk atlas was compiled.
Coburn, A.W., Evan, T., Foulser-Piggott, R., Kelly, Ralph, D., Rufflie, S.J. & Yeo, J.Z. Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge 2014, Cambridge World City Risk Atlas: Threat Hazard Maps of the World, Cambridge Risk Framework series, pp. 1-27.
A full set of high resolution global threat hazard maps from the Work City Risk 2025 project, as a printable atlas.
Kelly & Coburn, A. Centre for Risk Studies University of Cambridge 2014, Ebola Contigency Scenario: Analysis of Economic Impact of Upper Bound Ebola Projections for US and Europe – Cambridge 'Contingency' Scenario developed for business preparedness planning, Cambridge Risk Framework series, no. Working Paper 2014: 2.
This working paper presents a 'Contingency' scenario for the economic impact of possible Ebola outbreaks in the United States and Europe, based on upper bounds of published epidemiological projections from the West Africa epidemic of 2014.. This scenario is offered as a contribution to improving business resilience.
Bowman, G., Caccioli, F., Coburn, A.W., Hartley, R., Kelly, Ralph, D., Ruffle, S. & Wallace, J. Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge 2014, Stress Test Scenario: Millennial Uprising Social Unrest Scenario, Cambridge Risk Framework series, pp. 1-52.
The nature of social unrest has changed significantly since the Arab Spring and Occupy Wall Street. This report proposes a stress test scenario of a widespread uprising, fueled by youth unemployment, for use in business and policy-making.
Bowman, G., Caccioli, F., Coburn, A.W., Kelly, Ralph, D., Ruffle, S.J. & Foulser-Piggott, R. Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge 2014, Stress Test Scenario: China-Japan Conflict, Cambridge Risk Framework series, pp. 1-58.
A review of geopolitical conflict as a threat to modern business, and a stress test scenario of a conflict in Southeast Asia for use in business and policy-making.
Ruffle, S.J., Bowman, G., Caccioli, F., Coburn, A.W., Kelly, Leslie, B. & Ralph, D. Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge 2014, Stress Test Scenario: Sybil Logic Bomb Cyber Catastrophe, Cambridge Risk Framework series, pp. 1-45.
A risk framework for considering systemic cyber threats and a stress test scenario of a cyber catastrophe for use in business and policy-making.
Coburn, A.W., Bowman, G., Caccioli, F., Chang, M., Kelly, Ralph, D. & Ruffle, S.J. Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge 2014, Stress Test Scenario: São Paulo Virus Pandemic, Cambridge Risk Framework series, pp. 1-53.
Infectious diseases continue to pose a major societal threat. This report proposes a stress test scenario of a pandemic for use in business and policy-making.
Kelly OFGEM 2011, USA Transmission company model description. Technical Report, United Kingdom.
Kelly 2006, Comparative analysis and economic viability of wave energy converters. Technical Report, New Zealand.
Selected Peer-Assessed Projects