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Professor James Brown

Biography

Professor James Brown is the ABS Professor of Official Statistics

James received his B.Sc. (Hons) in Mathematics with Actuarial Studies (1993) and completed his M.Sc. (with distinction) in Social Statistics (1996), both from the University of Southampton. He completed his Ph.D. (University of Southampton, 2000) in the area of census coverage assessment and adjustment, work which started 15 years of collaboration with the Office for National Statistics in the UK.

Since 1999 he has held positions as Lecturer, and Senior Lecturer at the University of Southampton with responsibility for MSc in Official Statistics; Senior Lecturer at the Institute of Education (University of London) with responsibility for quantitative methods teaching within the Doctoral School; Reader at the University of Southampton with responsibility for the Methodology Support Contract with the Office for National Statistics. He joined UTS in September 2013 with a role to develop links between the University and the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Professional

James is a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society (Member and then Chair of the Official Statistics Committee, 2010 to 2012) and Member of the British Society for Population Studies. He also served as a member of the ESRC Grants Assessment Panel B in the UK prior to joining UTS.  

James holds editorial positions associated with three journals: 

  • Associate Editor, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A)
  • Member of the Editorial Board, Statistics of Ukraine
  • Member of the Editorial Board, Population Studies
Associate Head of School (Research), School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
Ph D
Fellow, Royal Statistical Society
 
Phone
+61 2 9514 2247

Research Interests

James has wide research interests (click here for Google Scholar profile) in the areas of Applied and Social Statistics. He has particular interests in:

  • assessment of census coverage and quality (see the Quality Report for the 2012 Population and Housing Census of Rwanda HERE)
  • design and analysis of surveys (particularly social and health related)
  • use of surveys for policy evaluation (with experience working in China)
  • application of multilevel models to the analysis of social data

Can supervise: Yes

Chapters

Brown, J.J. & Diamond, I. 1999, 'Population estimates in small areas: a brief overview' in Arnold, R., Elliott, P., Wakefield, J. & Quinn, M. (eds), Population Counts in Small Areas: Implications for Studies of Environment and Health - Proceedings, Office for National Statistics, London, pp. 5-9.
Introduction. The use of small area estimation techniques has been one of the growing areas of statistics. Increasingly, users require information for small areas and usually this is not readily available from the standard sources without further work. The methods used in that further work are the main subject of these proceedings. Before considering the methods for making small area population estimates, there are two key points that should be made clear. The first is that it is not advisable to make your own small area population estimates unless it is really necessary. The personal experience of one of the authors is that small estimation is very time consuming and often other organisations have information and local knowledge available to them that mean they are in a better position to make such estimates. The second point is to know the purpose for which the estimates are needed. This will help determine whether the estimates already available are appropraite. It will also have an impact on issues regarding accuracy and the level at whcih estimates are required. This paper presents and overview of what can be done to estimate populations in small areas as well as what is being done already. We do not present the theoretical detail surrounding the methods, as this is presented in the later papers. Instead, we look at some of the issues involved with making small area population estimates. We also look at some of the more common methods that are currently being used by producers of small area statistics and consider the strengths and weaknesses of the methods.

Conferences

Brown, J.J., Beh, E.J. & Hudson, I.L. 2015, 'Can we use the approaches of ecological inference to learn about the potential for dependence bias in dualsystem estimation? An application to cancer registration data', 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Gold Coast, Australia, pp. 1675-1681.
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Cook, L., Thatcher, A.R., Whitehead, F., Simpson, L., Preece, D.A., Briscoe, S., Allin, P., Thomas, R., Bound, J.A., Brown, J., Rathfelder, M., Scheuren, F., Baxter, M., Craig, J., Diamond, I., Haslett, S., Longford, N., Lynn, P., Purdon, S. & Nicolaas, G. 2004, 'Discussion on the meeting on 'The 2001 census and beyond'', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society, pp. 229-248.
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Journal articles

Qin, M., Brown, J.J., Padmadas, S., Li, B., Qi, J. & Falkingham, J. 2016, 'Gender Inequalities in Employment and Wage-earning among Economic Migrants in Chinese Cities', Demographic Research, vol. 34, pp. 175-202.
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Brown, J.J. 2015, 'Future Models for Population Census: Can We Have an Administrative Based Census without a Population Register?', Statistics of Ukraine, vol. 2015, no. 3, pp. 45-50.
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Veiga, A., Smith, P. & Brown, J.J. 2014, 'The use of sample weights in multivariate multilevel models with an application to income data collected by using a rotating panel survey', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics, vol. 63, no. 1, pp. 65-84.
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Longitudinal data from labour force surveys permit the investigation of income dynamics at the individual level. However, the data often originate from surveys with a complex multistage sampling scheme. In addition, the hierarchical structure of the data that is imposed by the different stages of the sampling scheme often represents the natural grouping in the population. Motivated by how income dynamics differ between the formal and informal sectors of the Brazilian economy and the data structure of the Brazilian Labour Force Survey, we extend the probability-weighted iterative generalized least squares estimation method. Our method is used to fit multivariate multilevel models to the Brazilian Labour Force Survey data where the covariance structure between occasions at the individual level is modelled. We conclude that there are significant income differentials and that incorporating the weights in the parameter estimation has some effect on the estimated coefficiants and standard errors.
MASLOVSKAYA, O., Brown, J.J., SMITH, P.W. & PADMADAS, S.S. 2014, 'HIV Awareness In China Among Women Of Reproductive Age (1997-2005): A Decomposition Analysis', Journal of Biosocial Science, vol. 46, no. 2, pp. 178-198.
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Summary HIV prevalence in China is less than one per cent, but the absolute number of people living with HIV/AIDS is large and growing. Given the limited scope of any potential cure for HIV, prevention plays a crucial role in controlling the epidemic. This paper examines the evolution of HIV awareness among women in China between 1997 and 2005. A regression decomposition analysis technique was used to disentangle the two main components driving a change in HIV awareness. The results show that HIV awareness has increased over time in China. The gaps between groups are narrowing over time and lower HIV awareness groups are catching up with the higher awareness groups. In 2005 education remained one of the main factors associated with HIV awareness, the other main factors being ethnicity, exposure to TV and newspapers. The increases in HIV awareness observed between 1997 and 2001 are similar between groups of women with different demographic characteristics, whereas between 2003 and 2005 increases are more pronounced among specific groups of women such as women from rural areas, women from Western parts of the country, women who belong to ethnic minorities and those with no education or with only primary education. The results suggest that the main driver of the observed change in HIV awareness over time in China is change in the environment such as in political commitment, interventions and campaigns rather than change in population structure.
Baffour, B., Brown, J.J. & Smith, P. 2013, 'An investigation of triple system eliminators in censuses', Statistical Journal of the IAOS, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 53-68.
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The value of a census cannot be overstated, given that no other data resource provided such detailed information about the population. Further, censuses are often the only historical data source to map out chenge over time due to the consistency of questions asked. However, it is often the most expensive undertaking- other than going to war- that a country embarks on. Countries are thus seeking more cost-effective alternatives. This paper details some exploratory research into one such alternative, based on capture-recapture methods. Capture recapture methods have been used for population estimation for decades, but the focus has been on dual system estimation. Dual system measurement of the population has been criticised for its reliance on the independence assumption between the two systems. This asumption is untestable, and failure introduces bias into the estimates of the population. The most logical improvement of dual system estimation is triple system estimation. In this paper, a simulation study is carried out to compare the perforamance of different dual and triple system estimators of the population size under various dependency scenarios. Performance is explored through both the bias and variability. The study shows that the dual system estimator copes well with dependence, provided the coverage of both lists are reasonably high. In addition, although the triple system estimators yield less biased estimates of the population, the dual system estimator is shown to be robust enough to cope with low levels of dependence.
Sonuga-Barke, E.J., Cartwright, K.L., Thompson, M.J., Brown, J., Bitsakou, P., Daley, D., Gramzow, R.H., Psychogiou, L. & Simonoff, E. 2013, 'Family characteristics, expressed emotion, and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.', Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, vol. 52, no. 5, pp. 547-548.e2.
Johnson, F.A., Chandra, H., Brown, J.J. & PADMADAS, S.S. 2012, 'Small Area Estimation for Policy Development: A Case Study of Child Undernutrition in Ghana', Journal of the Indian Society of Agricultural Statistics, vol. 66, no. 1, pp. 171-186.
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The demand for Small (local-level) Area Statistics has increased tremendously, particularly in countries where a decentralised approach to governance and service provision has been adopted. Most of these countries lack local-level statistics to aid policy decisions and planning. Sample surveys such as the Demographic and Health Survey provide a wide range of invaluable data at the national and regional level but cannot be used directly to produce reliable district-level estimates due to small smaple sizes. The paper illustrates the application of Small Area Estimation (SAE) techniques to derive model-based district-level estimates of child undernutrition in Ghana linking data from the 2003 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey (GDHS) and the 2000 Ghana Population and Housing Census (GPHC). The diagnostics measures show that the model-based estimates are robust when compared to the direct surevey estimates. The model-based estimates reveal considerable heterogeneity in the prevalence of undernutrition, with children living in the Northern part of the country being most disadvantaged. The estimates clearly highlight the districts where targeted child health interventions need to be strengthened. In countries where small area statistics are non-existent, SAE techniques could be crucila for designing effective policies and strengthening local-level governance.
Brown, J.J. & Honchar, O. 2012, 'Design and Estimation of Surveys to Measure Data Quality Aspects of Administrative Data', Lithuanian Journal of Statistics, vol. 51, no. 1, pp. 5-16.
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National Statistics Institutes (NSIs) have been increasingly seeking to replace or enhance traditional survey-based data sources with administrative data sources; with the aim to improve overall quality in the absence of a definitive register of the population. The Beyond 2011 Census Programme in England and Wales is an example of looking to replace a traditional census with administrative data collected for another purpose by a different organisation, when there is no definitive register as a starting point. There are also similar projects across NSIs within the area of business surveys looking to use administrative sources to reduce cost and burden. In this paper we start with considering all aspects of a quality framework for administrative data and then focus on the elements relevant to data quality such as accuracy and coherence. We fit these concepts into the framework for total survey error highlighting the components an NSI needs to measure to produce estimates based on the administrative data. We then explore the use of both dependent and independent quality surveys to adjust the administrative data for `measurement and `coverage aspects to improve the quality of estimates produced from the administrative data.
Brown, J.J., Abbott, O. & Smith, P.A. 2011, 'Design of the 2001 and 2011 Census Coverage Surveys for England and Wales', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, vol. 174, no. 4, pp. 881-906.
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In many countries, a key component of measuring census coverage is a post-enumeration survey. In the 2001 censuses of the UK this was called the Census Coverage Survey. This paper reviews the design of the 2001 Census Coverage Survey and develops the design for the survey in 2011, taking advantage of the experience of 2001 and the data that were generated by the 2001 process. This leads to a proposed design that is less clustered than in 2001 and has an allocation that is more skewed towards areas where coverage in the 2011 census is expected to be lowest. The updated design balances optimal allocation against maintaining a sufficient sample across all areas.
Large, A., Brown, J.J., Abbott, O. & Taylor, A. 2011, 'Estimating and Correcting for Over-count in the 2011 Census', Survey Methodology Bulletin, vol. 69, pp. 35-49.
This paper decscribes the proposed methodology for estimating and adjusting for over-count if it is found to be a significant issue in the 2011 Census. An approach to estimate over-count is developed, together with some indication of the sampling approach to be used. This estimated over-count is then used to develop an adjustment to the undercount estimation for the Census. This provides an adjustment of the Census estimates for undercount that is 'net' of estimated over-count. A simulation study is presented in order to verify the methodology and provide evidence to justify the implementation for the 2011 Census.
Dregan, A., Brown, J.J. & Armstrong, D. 2011, 'Do adult emotional and behavioural outcomes vary as a function of diverse childhood experiences of the public care system?', Psychological Medicine, vol. 41, pp. 2213-2220.
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Background. Longitudinal data from the 1970 British Cohort Survey were used to examine the long-term adult outcomes of those who, as children, were placed in public care. Method. Multivariate logistic estimation models were used to determine whether public care and placement patterns were associated with adult psychosocial outcomes. Seven emotional and behavioural outcomes measured at age 30 years were considered: depression, life dissatisfaction, self-efficacy, alcohol problems, smoking, drug abuse and criminal convictions. Results. The analyses revealed a significant association between public care status and adult maladjustment on depression [odds ratio (OR) 1.74], life dissatisfaction (OR 1.45), low self-efficacy (OR 1.95), smoking (OR 1.70) and criminal convictions (OR 2.13). Conclusions. Overall, the present study findings suggest that there are enduring influences of a childhood admission to public care on emotional and behavioural adjustment from birth to adulthood. Some of the associations with childhood public care were relatively strong, particularly with respect to depression, self-efficacy and criminal convictions.
Beaujouan, E., Brown, J.J. & Ní Bhrolcháin, M. 2011, 'Reweighting the general household survey 1979-2007.', Population trends, no. 145, pp. 115-141.
We have calculated two new sets of weights applicable to the General Household Survey (GHS) from 1979 to 2007. One of these is for use with any general analysis of GHS topics and the second is designed for analyses of data collected in the Family Information section. The methods used follow closely those employed by ONS from 1996 onwards. The performance of the weights is assessed in estimating the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 1971-2007, an aggregate measure of fertility for which reliable figures are available at national level from vital registration statistics. Our weights improve the GHS estimates, reducing bias both in the TFR and in age-specific fertility rates.
Brown, J. 2011, 'Discussion on the paper by steele', Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, vol. 53, no. 1, pp. 23-24.
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Brown, J.J., Bohua, L. & Padmadas, S. 2010, 'A multilevel analysis of the effects of a reproductive health programme that encouraged informed choice of contraceptive method rather than use of officially preferred methods, China 2003-2005', Population Studies: a journal of demography, vol. 64, no. 2, pp. 105-115.
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Historically, the Chinese government's family planning (FP) policy has emphasized post-partum IUD use after first birth and sterilization after subsequent births. Was the influence of this policy-driven programme on women's contraceptive choices weakened
Johnson, F.A., Chandra, H., Brown, J.J. & PADMADAS, S.S. 2010, 'District-level Estimates of Institutional Births in Ghana: Application of Small Area Estimation Technique Using Census and DHS Data', Journal of Official Statistics, vol. 26, no. 2, pp. 341-359.
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The Ghana Health Service functions under a decentralised approach; however, the lack of district level statistics implies that local authorities are faced with difficulties in making policy decisions without relevant statistics. The Ghanain Demographic and Health Surveys provide a range of invaluable data at the regional/national level; they cannot be used directly to produce reliable district-level estimates due to small sample sizes. This article uses small area estimation techniques to derive model-based district-level estimates of institutional births in Ghana by linking data from the 2003 GDHS and the 2000 Population and Housing Census. The models indicate considerable variability in the estimates, with institutional births ranging between 7% and 27% in the districts of the Northern region, compared to 78% and 85% in the districts of the Greater Accra Region. The diagnostic measures indicate that the model-based estimates are reliable and representative of the district to which they belong.
Maslovskaya, O., Brown, J.J. & Padmadas, S. 2009, 'Disentangling the complex association between female genital cutting and HIV among Kenyan women', Journal of Biosocial Science, vol. 41, no. 6, pp. 815-830.
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Female genital cutting (FGC) is a widespread cultural practice in Africa and the Middle East, with a number of potential adverse health consequences for women. It was hypothesized by Kun (1997) that FGC increases the risk of HIV transmission through a nu
Johnson, F., Padmadas, S. & Brown, J.J. 2009, 'On the Spatial Inequalities of Institutional Versus Home Births in Ghana: A Multilevel Analysis', Journal of Community Health, vol. 34, no. 1, pp. 64-72.
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Spatial inequalities related to the choice of delivery care have not been studied systematically in Sub-Saharan Africa where maternal and perinatal health outcomes continue to worsen despite a range of safe motherhood interventions. Using retrospective d
Matthews, Z., PADMADAS, S.S., Hutter, I., McEachran, J. & Brown, J.J. 2009, 'Does early childbearing and a sterilization-focused family planning programme in India fuel population growth?', Demographic Research, vol. 20, pp. 693-720.
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Recent stagnation in the reduction of infant mortality in India can arguably be attributed to early child bearing practices and the lack of progress in lengthening birth intervals. Meanwhile, family planning efforts have been particularly successful in the southern states such as Andhra Pradesh, although family limitation is almost exclusively by means of sterilisation at increasingly younger ages. This paper examines the population impact of the unprecedented convergence of early childbearing trajectories in India and quantifies the potential implications stemming from the neglect of strategies that encourage delaying and spacing of births. The effects of adopting a `later, longer and fewer family planning strategy are compared with the continuation of fertility concentrated in the younger age groups. Results from the cohort component population projections suggest that a policy encouraging later marriage and birth spacing would achieve a future total population which is about 52 million less in 2050 than if the current early fertility trajectory is continued.
Gereltuya, A., Falkingham, J. & Brown, J.J. 2007, 'Determinants of current contraceptive use and method choice in Mongolia', Journal of Biosocial Science, vol. 39, no. 6, pp. 801-817.
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This study examines the determinants of current contraceptive use and method choice in Mongolia using data from the 1998 Mongolian Reproductive Health Survey and 2000 Mongolian Population and Housing Census. Since 1976, access to modern contraceptives ha
Sufang, G., PADMADAS, S.S., Fengmin, Z., Brown, J.J. & Stones, R.W. 2007, 'Delivery settings and caesarean section rates in China', Bulletin of the World Health Organisation, vol. 80, no. 7, pp. 755-762.
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Objective: To quantify the influence of increasing use of health-care services on rising rates of caesarean section in China. Methods: We used data from a population-based survey conducted by the United Nations Population Fund during September 2003 in 30 selected counties in three regions of China. The study sample (derived from birth history schedule) consisted of 3803 births to mothers aged less than 40 years between 1993 and 2002. Multiple logistic regression models were used to estimate the effect of health-care factors on the odds of a caesarean section, controlling for time and selected variables. Findings: Institutional births increased from 53.5% in 1993-1994 to 82.2% in 2001-2002, while the corresponding increase in rates of caesarean section was driven by the increase in births within institutions. The adjusted odds of a caesarean section were 4.6 times (95% confidence interval, CI: 3.4-11.8) higher for recent births. The adjusted odds were also significantly higher for mothers who had at least one antenatal ultrasound test. Rates of caesarean section in secondary-level facilities markedly increased over the last decade to the same levels as in major hospitals (P<0.001). Conclusion: The upsurge in rates of births by caesarean section in this population cannot be fully explained by increases in institutional births alone, but is likely to be driven by medical practice within secondary-level hospitals and women's demand for the procedure.
Sufang, G., Padmadas, S.S., Fengmin, Z., Brown, J.J. & Stones, R.W. 2007, 'Delivery settings and caesarean section rates in China.', Bulletin of the World Health Organization, vol. 85, no. 10, pp. 755-762.
OBJECTIVE: To quantify the influence of increasing use of health-care services on rising rates of caesarean section in China. METHODS: We used data from a population-based survey conducted by the United Nations Population Fund during September 2003 in 30 selected counties in three regions of China. The study sample (derived from birth history schedule) consisted of 3803 births to mothers aged less than 40 years between 1993 and 2002. Multiple logistic regression models were used to estimate the effect of health-care factors on the odds of a caesarean section, controlling for time and selected variables. FINDINGS: Institutional births increased from 53.5% in 1993-1994 to 82.2% in 2001-2002, while the corresponding increase in births by caesarean section was from 8.9% to 24.8%, respectively. Decomposition analysis showed that 69% of the increase in rates of caesarean section was driven by the increase in births within institutions. The adjusted odds of a caesarean section were 4.6 times (95% confidence interval, CI: 3.4-11.8) higher for recent births. The adjusted odds were also significantly higher for mothers who had at least one antenatal ultrasound test. Rates of caesarean section in secondary-level facilities markedly increased over the last decade to the same levels as in major hospitals (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The upsurge in rates of births by caesarean section in this population cannot be fully explained by increases in institutional births alone, but is likely to be driven by medical practice within secondary-level hospitals and women's demand for the procedure.
Stones, R., Padmadas, S., Guo, S., Brown, J.J., Zhao, F. & Li, B. 2006, 'Dyspareunia, Urinary Sensory Symptoms, and Incontinence Among Young Chinese Women', Archives of Sexual Behavior: an interdisciplinary research journal, vol. 35, no. 5, pp. 561-567.
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This study examined the prevalence of dyspareunia, urinary sensory symptoms, and urinary incontinence and explored their associations among sexually active Chinese women aged 1534 years. Data from 3,150 women were analyzed from a survey undertaken during 2003 in 30 counties in China as part of the United Nations Population Fund Country Program. The overall prevalence of dyspareunia was 4.7%. Urinary pain, burning or frequency was reported by 8.5%, 6.2% reported urinary incontinence, and 2.3% reported both sets of urinary symptoms. The prevalence of urinary incontinence, both alone and in combination with sensory symptoms, increased in a linear manner with age. Dyspareunia was associated with early sexual debut, primary level of education, and membership of minority ethnic communities. Urinary sensory symptoms and incontinence were more common among those reporting early sexual debut, those with less schooling, and women engaged in agricultural and manual unskilled occupations. Urinary incontinence was more common among women who had had a previous vaginal delivery compared to nulliparous women. Dyspareunia was strongly associated with the presence of urinary symptoms, particularly among those with both sensory symptoms and incontinence (26.8%). Nearly a quarter of women who had dyspareunia had sought treatment but fewer had done so for urinary incontinence. Dyspareunia and urinary symptoms show distinct but overlapping patterns of association with demographic variables. The findings indicate unmet need for assessment and advice about these symptoms in womens reproductive health programs.
Brown, J.J., Abbott, O. & Diamond, I. 2006, 'Dependence in the 2001 one-number census project', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, vol. 169, no. 4, pp. 883-902.
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The one-number census approach was developed by the Office for National Statistics to adjust the counts from the 2001 census of England and Wales for undernumeration. The method is underpinned by an assumption of independence between the count of the population that was given by the 2001 census and the count that was given by the Census Coverage Survey. Some dependence was, however, detected, and the paper describes the strategy that was used to measure dependence and to adjust the 2001 census population estimates.
Griffiths, P.L., Brown, J.J. & Smith, P. 2004, 'A comparison of univariate and multivariate multilevel models for repeated measure use of antenatal care in Uttar Pradesh', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, vol. 164, no. 4, pp. 597-611.
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We compare two different multilevel modelling approaches to the analysis of repeated measures data to assess the effect of mother level characteristics on women's use of prenatal care services in Uttar Pradesh, India. We apply univariate multilevel models to our data and find that the model assumptions are severely violated and the parameter estimates are not stable, particulalrly for the mother level random effect. To overcome this we apply a multivariate multilevel model. The correlation structure shows that, once the decision has been made regarding use of antenatal care by the mother for her first observed birth in the data, she does not tend to change this decision for higher order births.
Steele, F., Brown, J.J. & Chambers, R. 2002, 'A controlled donor imputation system for a one-number census', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, vol. 165, no. 3, pp. 495-522.
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The 2001 UK census was a one-number census. An integral part of such a process has been the creation of a transport census debate that has been adjusted for the undernumeration in the 2001 census. The methodology for creating this database is based on a controlled donor imputation system that imputes individuals and households estimated to have been missed in the census. This paper describes this methodology and provided results from a statistical assessment of its performance using data that realistically simulate the census process.
Brown, J.J., Diamond, I., CL, R., Buckner, L.J. & Teague, A.D. 1999, 'A methodological strategy for a one-number census in the UK', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, vol. 162, no. 2, pp. 247-257.
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As a result of lessons learnt from the 1991 census, a research programme was set up to seek improvements in census methodology. Underenumeration has been placed top of the agenda in this programme, and every effort is being made to achieve as high a coverage as possible in the 2001 census. In recognition, however, that 100% coverage will never be achieved, the one- number census (ONC) project was established to measure the degree of underenumeration in the 2001 census and, if possible, to adjust fully the outputs from the census for that undercount. A key component of this adjustment process is a census coverage survey (CCS). This paper presents an overview of the ONC project, focusing on the design and analysis methodology for the CCS. It also presents results that allow the reader to evaluate the robustness of this methodology.

Other

Brown, J.J. & Beaujouan, E. 2013, 'Review of the Rolling Census Approach: and other survey-based options', ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Papers.

Reports

Beaujouan, E., Brown, J.J. & Bhrolcháin, M.N. Population Trends- Office for National Statistics 2011, Reweighting the General Household Survey 1979-2007, pp. 1-119, London.
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We have calculated two new sets of weights applicable to the General Household Survey (GHS) from 1979 to 2007. One of these is for use with any general analysis of GHS topics and the second is designed for analyses of data collected in the Family Information section. The methods used follow closely those employed by ONS from 1996 onwards. The performance of the weights is assessed in estimating the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 1971-2007, an aggregate measure of fertility for which reliable figures are available at national level from vital registration statistics. Our weights improve the GHS estimates, reducing bias both in the TFR and in age-specific fertility rates.
Smith, P., Cleary, A., Jones, M., Johnston, S., Bremner, P., Brown, J.J. & Wiggins, R. Home Office 2011, A feasibility study for a survey of migrants, pp. 1-46, United Kingdom.
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Overview. The Analysis, Reserach and knowledge management Directorate (ARK) in the UK Border Agency commissioned Ipsos MORI and the Institute of Education to undertake a feasibility study for a large-scale face-to-face survey of migrants in the UK. The purpose of the feasibility study was to inform the design of a survey of migrants, looking at how to design and interview statistically robust sample and the appropriate questions to adopt such a survey. The feasibility study involved: 1. workshops with the UK Border Agency and other stakeholders to identify survey requirements; 2. the development of a definition of 'migrant' for use in the survey 3. the development of a sample design; 4. testing fieldwork recruitment and data collection methods to be used; and 5. the development of a questionnaire, including cognitive testing in several languages This report focuses on the sampling and field methods aspects of the feasibility study. A separate technical report provides details on other issues, including question development. To inform the development of the survey methodology and the survey questionnaire discussion groups and depth interviews were undertaken with representatives of economic migrant communities and individuals working with refugees and asylum seekers in England and Scotland. Key issues surrounding survey objectives, terminology, and field methods were identified. A useable survey population definition was developed after stakeholder consultaion such that, for the purpose of this study: 'A migrant is defined as someone who arrived in the UK in 1990 or later, who was a non-UK national on entry, whose usual place of residence prior to entry was not in the UK, and who has lived in the country for at least three months (one month if an asylum seeker or refugee).' It was concluded that different types of migrants will require different sampling and screening methods. Asylum sekers could be sampled directly from administrative records but other migra...
Reyner, L.A., Flatley, D. & Brown, J.J. Department for Transport 2006, Effectiveness of Motorway Services Areas in Reducing Fatigue-related and other Accidents, pp. 1-80, London.
INTRODUCTION 'Motorway service stations exist to meet a road safety need by giving drivers somewhere to stop and rest' Lord Whitty. From analyses of road crash investigation reports on a total of over 2,000 roadtraffic collision (RTC) files obtained from UK police forces, we have found that sleepiness is a major cause of serious accidents on monotonous roads in Great Britain, especially motorways. Moreover, compared with RTCs as a whole, we have found that sleep-related crashes (SRCs) are more likely to result in death or serious injury. We have also shown that STATS19 has not been a reliable source of information on SRCs, and we have developed other techniques for identifying them. These techniques are now adopted by over half the police forces and have been successfully 'tested' in many court cases involving death by dangerous driving. Our analyses of SRCs, on behalf of the Department for Transport (DfT), have been the basis of road-crash audits that have also examined the influence of: time of day, day of week, type of driver, road lighting versus no lighting, road-traffic density (e.g. 'Sleep related vehicle accidents on sections of selected trunk roads and motorways in the UK, 1995-1998' - DfT Road Safety Report No. 22, 2001). In these respects, we have found, for example, that in relation to traffic flow rates, proportionately many more SRCs happen during the hours of midnight to 0600h and, typically, drivers causing SRCs are men, usually aged under 30 years. We have also conducted laboratory studies of the processes of falling asleep at the wheel using a realistic, interactive and fully instrumented driving simulator that enables us to monitor and analyse automatically a variety of driving behaviours, as well as the electroencephalographic (EEG) status of the driver. We have used this system to evaluate practical methods that the driver can utilise to overcome sleepiness (findings from which are incorporated in the Highway Code), and we have shown that dri...
Wikeley, N., Barnett, S., Brown, J.J., Davis, G., Diamond, I., Draper, T. & Smith, P. The Charlesworth Group 2001, National Survey of Child Support Clients, pp. 1-196, Huddersfield, United Kingdom.
Introduction- Background. The child support scheme was introduced in April 1993 under the auspices of the Child Support Act 1991. Despite a series of incremental adjustments to the scheme in its early years, it became widely recognised that the system had failed to acheive its original goals and in particular to improve financial support for children. A series of major reforms to the child support system are being implemented (mostly with effect from April 2002) as a result of the Child Support, Pensions and Social Security Act 2000. The goals of the reforms include making the system accessible, comprehensible and responsive to the parents concerned. Other objectives include increasing compliance and the administrative efficiency of the child support scheme.

James is an Associate member of S3RI at the University of Southampton UK and he continues to collaborate with the Office for National Statistics on issues relating to census coverage.

Within Australia, he has links with the Australian Bureau of Statistics working in the area of analysis of linked data.